bluecon
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Posts posted by bluecon
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I feel that this is most likely to be the last time I post on an environmental thread ....
(i) The world has posted a warming trend for around 30 years leading up to around 2000AD
(ii) Since 1998AD all TEN years of it have either been flat, or have been falling, slightly
(iii) So with forty years temp records only 25% shows any evidence of your conclusions
(iv) If it carrise on for another ten years - ie until 2018, then the money will only be on 50/50 - ie even odds.
(v) Even though the last years trends are flat or declining, slightly, they are still, on average, way above the 1970-2000 mean. As far as I can recall, no year since has posted a below average difference.
(vi) Local events from last year (or this, or whenever) neither support the AGW hypothesis, nor support any anti-AGW hypothesis - so ITS POINTLESS TALKING ABOUT THEM - apart from in respect of general interest.
Please correct me where I am wrong.
The math and percentages are nonsense.
The fact is that the Earth is cooling and it appears to be accelerating.
The AGW theory says that a slight increase in manmade CO2 will result in a unstoppable increase in temperature. Now we have had huge increases in manmade CO2 emmisiions and decreasing temps. The AGW theory appears to be flawed.
Around here we have a huge number of old English and Scotts tradesmen that came over when it was booming. They certainly are not the type to run from a fight.(putting it mildley) Good men that I have enjoyed working with for the most part. When did it become the English way to run?
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There has been some warm weather in the Canadian Arctic but also some below normal.
No real prolonged extreme temps.
This gives temps and normal temps for most stations.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU
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Last year the scientists were saying AGW was going to cause the Great Lakes to dry up and now we have had a record Winter snowfall followed by all this below average temp weather and record rain. Signs of NGC?(natural global cooling)
"Windsor endured wettest June on record
Sonja Puzic, The Windsor Star
Published: Tuesday, July 01, 2008
The Windsor area has experienced the wettest June on record, with an estimated 172 millimetres of rain falling in the region throughout the month, according to Environment Canada.
That beats the previous 1960 record of 162.1 millimetres and far exceeds last year's June rainfall, pegged at 65.2 millimetres, said senior climatologist David Phillips. The normal amount of rainfall for this region in June is 89.8 millimetres."
http://www.canada.com/windsorstar/story.ht...05-a126e8f9177f
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Seems like central Alaska is very different in climate from Western Canada.
Depends what part of Western Canada. Alaska is a huge area and western Canada is bigger. Some parts of western Canada would have comparable weather. Maybe inland northern BC for instance and parts of the Yukon.
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That's a very poor analogy- what would people think if someone said, "We can't predict what the weather's going to do in 5 days' time, so how on Earth can they have any confidence that in two months' time we will be nearing the end of August?" they'd not look too clever.
"The end of August is something that will happen exactly the same every year. Not actually predicting anything. Like predicting one plus one equals two. Well within sciences capabilties. Now predicting the weather a slight time ahead and acurately is not something that they are known for. Now predicting this Summers temperatures in the Arctic is not something they can do any better than guess at. The article is not based on fact and is merely alarmist info with no basis in actual science. There is right now more ice in the Arctic this year than last and the Pole is not covered with thin first year ice."
Not to mention that if the article had predicted that we would see a long-term recovery in the ice you would be accepting it as truth, for the real argument is more along the lines "AGW isn't happening, therefore, AGW isn't happening. Therefore it isn't happening, because if it was happening, it would be happening. This argument isn't circular because it isn't, therefore it's right."
"I would neither post such a poorly written article as this or support it even if it backed up my views."
I don't think breaking last year's record is completely a foregone conclusion yet- we were always looking at a scenario where we'd beat last year's record unless we had very favourable conditions, and this remains the case. But the odds certainly aren't good. At this rate we could indeed have completely ice-free Arctic summers in the next decade or two.
There is more ice at this point than there was last year and last year had an unusually warm and lengthy melting season.
I can see meltwater quite clearly, right in front of the camera. Note the sunlight casting ripple effects on the far left of this pool- doesn't usually happen on ice!Ice often freezes up with ripples like that.
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Just out of interest, where's "here"?
Windsor, Ont Canada, right across the moat from Detroit.
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I don't know if this has been posted yet...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...27/eaice127.xml
Looks like a new record is a foregone conclusion... just by how much now.
You base that assessment on the Telegraph?
What science is that article based on?
The scientist commonly predict the weather wrong hours ahead and yet you believe they know the temps and ice conditions in the Arctic for the whole of the melting period?
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I don't think the 71-2000 average is relevant to Bluecons question, probably better to use a rolling 30 year average, ie 77-2007, which would put MarchApril May just a bit cooler than normal. :o
Probably we should now wait to see if Bluecons feels his question has been answered
We had a cold Winter and a very cool Spring. In western Canada they were starting to call it the year without a Summer. Still except for the last couple days cooler than normal temps around here. And everyday there is a thunderstorm that roles through.
Wondered if England was seeing the same sort of cooler weather. Thanks.
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The Earth is cooling and it will take an extreme effort by the AGW alarmist to keep the belief alieve that a tiny increase in manmade CO2 will fry the Earth and only more taxes will solve this.
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Are you the only Gray Wolf left in England?
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Nothing's being taken personally. It's rather nice to force myself to take the time to examine the temps in that region more throughly.
A few more temperature profiles from the islands then, which indicate that it hasn't been cold there recently and that May and June where rather above average.I would almost certainly call it a warm spell. Also as they are 365 days they show the warmth which happened in July and August which isn't too far away from the warm anoms reached in May and June.
BTW I thought I said that temps had reached 15-20 not above 20. If I were to say that temperatures in the UK in May reached 25C it doesn't mean the whole month was 25C, nor that the whole country reached 25C at the same time, but that strangely 25C had been reached.
I guess I never realized it had reached twenty in the Canadian Arctic this year.
And there definately has not been widespread temps of 15 to 20C.
Spin how you want, but the Canadian Arctic has been somewhat cool this year.
And as far as forecasts go, science is very bad at predicting the weather.
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http://www.slate.com/id/2192730/
So not just me then?
When a plant is dying it may put on the most spectacular display so 'swan songs' may be many and varied through nature (including dying stars).
These few years of 'ice extent growth' will prove to be Antarctica's 'Swan Song' and much the same as the single year ice debate ,insofar as extents were concerned, that raged through late winter.
Meanwhile we will still see massive net losses in ice mass from the continent and the death of Wilkins next southern summer. What can you say to allow folk to see?
Except for the fact that there is a massive growth of the ice.
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Could be the North American climate is showing the cooling sooner since it is land based as opposed to the European climate which depends far more on the heat from the oceans.
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If the world is cooling and it looks like it is it will be a disaster for mankind.
It will result in a large reduction of agricultural production, CO2 and heat will be reduced and that will be bad.
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One day of warm temps slightly above fifteen in a tiny area and nothing in the twenties.
Mostly the temps have been normal or colder than normal.
But you are right if there is an extended warm spell and strong winds the ice will go.
Wind is very important according to Henry Larsen. I am still of the opinion without the extreme heat of last year the ice will not end up at nearly such a low level as last year. Gotta believe the unusual heat caused above normal winds.
Don't take it so personal, it is just a difference of opinion.
June may be the period of max day length but the temps ,like here, have another 6 weeks of high temps to go! In the meantimes lots more dark water is emerging (as the 'ice concentration' map shows) so like last year, and every other year before, ice melt goes on until mid sept/early Oct. I wish I had your optimism but day on day things start to look direr than last year and surely that was bad beyond belief?July is normally the warmest month in the Arctic and last years warm temps through August and September are anomoluos. Without the unusual warm weather and the extension into September the melt will be much smaller.
Of course your right that time will tell.
In Canada we call them Gray Wolfes , Timber Wolfes and they like to eat people.
Of course nothing like the Polar Bears appetite for people.
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It does at first glance bluecon but if you dig a little deeper and look at the higher resolution images, then ignore hudson and Chukchi which melt every year then the situation looks pretty bad.
Pockets of thin ice are floating all over the place, the deeper passage of the NW only has one chunk of sheet ice left, the rest is broken up first year ice. As GW has already mentioned as soon as the ice starts breaking up like this it's had it until September or October the water reflects alot less of the sun's energy and more ice movement occurs. So far during the spring conditions for the arctic particularly away from the Canadian coast really helping the ice to hold on, lots of cloud, cooler temps, less heat from the sun etc but even under these favourable conditions the first year ice is struggling to hold on.
Conditions in the next two weeks are set to reverse to an environment more favourable to melting with Temps in the Arctic Canadian Islands already hitting 15-20C this month the highest possibility still favours rapid ice melt.
July is the warmest month in the Arctic.
So far no real warm temps in the 15 to 20C this year in Arctic Canada.
What do you base these statements on?
Still lots of cold weather.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU
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The spring here has been very cold and the summer continues the pattern. Is it above average temps in England?
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Seems like Mr Bush (and his administration) has finally had to accept that climate change is real and costing them dear (as the recent flooding illustrates).
http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sa...tiveSummary.pdf
above is a link to the exec. summary of the report. Enjoy!
EDIT: Again the report highlights the need for specific areas of study with specific goals for those studies.
Do you think it is the first time there has been a flood.
It is normal for this to happen, you just think raising taxes is the cure.
I have friends here from England this week and they are telling me gas is 12 dollars a gallon.
Them evil oil companies in England are twice as evil as here. What does the King of England do with all that money?
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We now seem to be seeing the precipitous drop off of ice in the Canadian Archipelago (in line with the predicted reopening of the deep water channel in Aug). One to watch?
Well if you look at this the melt seems far behind the last year.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=23&sy=2008
And if you look at this the temps are cooler or normal.
I believe unless there is a freak warm spell like last year the ice will have a large increase in the minimum.
Then again i have a bunch of friends over from England and we had a little party yesterday. All that CO2 could increase the temp in Canada.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU
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bluecon, though a novice don't you think you are setting yourself up for a BIG fall here????????
There are folk on here who WILL constantly remimnd you of your optimism........probably until you decide leaving is preferable to putting up with the snipes.
Just a thought.
Ian.
I was raised by socialist politicians.
Two of my uncles were socialist cabinet ministers in the government and so was my cousin.
The easy route would be to go for socialism.
I just look at the facts. Am a self made man and don't fear much.
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Of course it is.
Everyone must agree that a tiny increase in CO2 will destroy the Earth.
Arctic ice
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Maybe but the change in forecast will be for more ice than predicted.
Looks like the ice melt is falling far behind last year.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=08&sy=2008