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UKSupercell
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Posts posted by UKSupercell
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1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:
As above at Ali...things looking much better today...some cracking ens also...just a little taster from me...
I'm not in anyway advertising tyres here,but make sure your Winter tyre ready or at least have them checked...sounds more like an Health and safety post tbh
Great advice though Matt! I have 3 peak snowflake rated all-terrain tyres on my Jeep, so I should be alright! Went out in the snow we had earlier this year in the South Downs and climbed some ice-rink hills, and gotta say, the car didn't lose traction once, was unstoppable.
Having said that....even snow-rated all-terrains are not quite as good as proper winter tyres....People think 4x4s are what you need in the winter but this is a misconception. Put a pair of michelin winter tyres on a front wheel drive hatchback and the car should handle the snow brilliantly. A 4x4 with summer tyres will perform worse.
Although a 4x4 with winter tyres will be unbeatable, of course.
Either way, I'll take my chances in Scotland, I know my Jeep can plough through snow, it's more icy hills that scare me....but life's about living, and if we sacrifice freedom because of fear, that ain't an existence I want!-
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Afternoon all - so I've been watching this thread intensely for the last two weeks. I initially posed the question a week or so ago, and now will do so again.....given I've now decided to take nearly two weeks off and go camping/hiking in Scotland, from Friday 19th onwards, do you think there is a fair chance I will see some of the white stuff up there in that time?!?!
I plan to spend most of my time on the west highland coast, but I will probably pass through the Cairngorms and Loch Lomond/Trossachs National Park too, so will travel about quite a bit alternating camp sites, B&Bs and may even do the odd wild camp!
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Evening all, haven't posted on here for a while, but have been intermittently model-watching and keeping a close eye on this thread!
Can someone please tell me: Is there a solid likelihood of dry and crisp frosty weather and/or snowfall - in Scotland from the 17th Nov to end of the month?
I am planning to potentially drive to Scotland around the 17th and take perhaps 10 days holiday, wild camp, hike, road-trip etc....
I would have gone end of October when autumn colours are best there (in my experience) but car was off the road being repaired/serviced for 2 weeks as parts took a while to arrive.But I am not keen on going to Scotland if there is a high likelihood of constant atlantic heavy rains and gales, which will just be miserable, especially as I intend to camp/hike.
What do you guys reckon? -
Yep, what did I say? Right over the South Downs and right on my doorstep. Though I’m in Farnham at pres. Will this produce much though? Hmmm
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Watching these, though I’m not overly optimistic.....
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These two photos were taken a few mins apart.
You can see how they’re trying but eventually lose shape and dissipate.....
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Have taken many photos here from the Surrey-Hants border last few days but not had a chance to upload some explosive convection and distant anvils yet.....
Will keep things relevant to the present and attach a few shots taken literally just now from Farnham Surrey area looking South.
Some good convection taking place and hefty towers going up but not 100% the conditions exist to take them above and beyond if you know what I mean!
Though I wouldn’t be surprised if something goes pop pretty soon over the S Downs direction.....
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First time back posting on here since the snow many months ago!
Say, East Hants doesn't look a bad place to be at all for tomorrow....but I ain't counting my chickens just yet.
We all know that a Kent Clipper is always a reasonable possibility, despite these apparent westward shifts......Excited nonetheless!
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Where is Matt Wolves with the daily cold sermon?!
I typically only comment in other threads during SE snow events or summer storm time, but have been following this thread with my invisibility cloak for ages....
But have much enjoyed the passion and optimism from fellow coldies, particularly Matt commander in chief it seems!
Would love to see some more snow before we get stuck into any proper spring sunshine and warmth, as the last cold spell was a bit of a letdown here this far W in East Hants.Am I right in saying the "cold spell" is only going to last for a few days and generally just be cloudy & dry, before the atlantic influences our weather again?
Seems there's some great outlooks on various GFS models and ECM but just too far ahead to be certain!
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Few select photos I forgot to post the other day, from the Feb 2021 "Beasterly" (For Kent, Essex and East Anglia, sure!)
Taken near Haslemere, Surrey in the South Downs . An immensely cold week it was, and I would know as I was working it! Fingers and toes despite gloves and double socks did not enjoy it.....regardless, here's hoping the cold makes a return! It's February......and the prospect of 17C in a week or too does not excite me! Cheers all-
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2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:
I have a feeling after spending the last week being too far West, NE Hants is now too far East
Always the way of things in storm season! I mean I only moved to these parts a year ago. Lived in chilterns my whole life, and seen many a thunderstorm drift past the house to only have to go in the car and chase. Although last summer was incredible, sure, the midlanders and northerners seem to get the best homegrown storms now and have done for years, but there was one day last mid august which was unbelievable for lightning and rain and I got it all recorded!
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Any realistic chance of snow here in East Hants? Just checked the radar and to my surprise there is a band from this front that seems to be moving exactly this direction and over west Hants/Dorset way at present.
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16 hours ago, TN9 said:
Scotland,high ground, up north ,it's been nice not to here that for a few days ,I've noticed, and they must used to it, how Iceland when the atlantic gets going how windy it is ,like proper full on near hurricane force winds regular ,they must all walk sideways ...here is a couple of puddle splashes down my local lane
Great photos pal! Also took some of roadside hedges covered in icicles the other day in the South Downs....will have to upload here when I'm not half asleep (like now!)
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14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
The 18z run comes out generally when people used to be in the pubs.
It also gets accused of being drunk, as it has a tendency to throw out epic FI charts which rarely come to fruition.
Cheers, as I thought! I think it's great terminology....whoever coined it first, hats off!-
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Newbie question here....I lurk on this side of the forum as I enjoy reading everyone's posts and analyses of model outcomes etc.....but can someone tell me, what the "pub" run actually means?! I think I know but I'll let someone answer the question first.....
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5 hours ago, m1chaels said:
So bbc (ECM) is showing precipitation on Sunday but all rain (at about 3 degrees) - do any of the other models have this breakdown of the cold - ideally with snow?!
Unless you're in Scotland or on Northern Hills and perhaps some other high ground elsewhere (but not in the south I don't think) then no. Believe there is a very real possibility of freezing rain in some central, eastern and northern areas potentially too. I'm not someone that study's models religiously though like some of the gurus on here, but i have checked multiple forecasts for my area and it's all rain here....
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2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Red arrow: Current direction of travel
Yellow: Winds shifting towards that direction in the next few hours bringing parts of Essex & London into the game. Some of these showers could give 1-2cm very quickly. Be lucky enough to catch a few of them and well.. enjoy!
A lot of these streamers actually look to be hitting my area dead on but I just know when they get here they'll be all but dissipated!
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Evening all. Anyone any idea on whether these streamers will hit the Petersfield area in East Hants? They look like they're moving our way but I'm sure they'll be light snizzle or totally dissipated by time they're here. I'm not optimistic, based on this pretty crap week out these parts tbh.
Had a light snow shower with proper flakes earlier when I was working outside over Haslemere way, and then on the drive back going SWwards I drove through some light-moderate bigger flakes with very unstable looking convective snow clouds all around me with classic yellow bases. Of course the heavier snow moved Midhurst way right across the S Downs according to the radar....
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Any possibility of snow in East Hants tonight?
Woke up this morn to another dusting, more than Monday's too. Very white everywhere but polystyrene really. Half of it was gone though by close of play today, with the slight sunshine we had this afternoon, despite being bitterly cold (I would know, I was working outside in it!)
Be nice to wake up to an actual light covering at the very least, something made of actual flakes.....Not that see any chance of any streamers down here reaching these parts "west."
Perhaps the weekend will be better..... -
Woke up to a “heavier” dusting this morn and very light snizzle blowing about. It’s white outside, but doesn’t feel like proper snow really!
These SE streamers have been pathetic so far.....
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32 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Some of it may well make it , though that is uncertain at this point of course. I think for us though it will be a case of having realistic expectations. Do I think we can get a dusting. Absolutely. Do i think we can squeeze a few cms out of it, possible. Do I see a big snow event for us. Not at all.
As for later this week, I reckon that the fronts will not get even within a couple of counties of us and they will decay long before reaching our neck of the woods. ICON tries but it is the only model even remotely close at the moment that I can see. This cold spell will go out one of two ways. It will either eventually morph into a SW with little to no snow due to the long SW fetch, or it will eventually evolve into either a cold dry high or another easterly. Hopefully its the latter but that has reduced in odds somewhat today.
So a small amount of snow tonight, maybe another small window for another small snowfall tomorrow night, and then probably dry and cold for the next 5-7 days.
Agreed!
Well, I really hope it's the latter. A morphing no-event SW with no snow would be an utter failure, imo.
I think the ECM model has put an extension of the cold back in the game, gathering by what I understood from the model thread earlier....fingers crossed.-
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15 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Whilst I am expecting a streamer to set up I'm not seeing anything remotely like Feb 09 in the works. This looks to me to be a low end to moderate event. What do I mean by that? Well I think it could well give S.Essex and N.Kent some good snows, that will likely extend towards SE London and maybe E.Surrey and Sussex.
I think there maybe a lack of energy for them to give too much beyond that point though I suspect there maybe some snow even to places further west, though amount of snow decreasing gradually.
I suppose what I'm saying is dont go to bed and expect to wake up to 6-9 inches tomorrow. Additional 6-9cms in favoured spots seems do able though.
Sweet FA for us in East Hants I assume again, yeah?
It snowed literally all day around here today, constant very light snow, with some light bursts with actual flakes in the mid afternoon. Settled well, and minor roads around the yard and on the grass along with roofs, had a dusting.
But I'm starting to think you've nailed this week for our parts. Perhaps Saturday and this front from the SW will deliver?
What I will say is, this lingering snow in the far SE must be remnants of that storm Darcy or whatever. So far I've seen no streamer down here compared to NE Eng or E Scot.-
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Any idea when these supposed streamers will form and push across London into the Guildford to Petersfield area? BBC says heavy snow all of tomorrow for my area near Petersfield (lol) but MO shows little.
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13 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Whilst I've not deep dived the other models, AROME to be fair does start to strengthen the convection a little as the winds shift more ENE in the estuary over the next 6hrs.
It doesn't have a true streamer though I'd say until late this evening when there is a pretty solid starting point in the Estuary that tracks roughly along the same parth for a good 9hrs though far S.Essex, NW Kent, SE London and out into Surrey and eventually down to me.
Upto then we have got constant showers that are getting a little storng near the Estruary.
The other thing to note regarding the streamer possiblity is the models, even the high resolution ones, struggle with the amounts of instality that can locally be generated, so locally convection may go stronger than expected.
Either way AROME pushes some decent totals about in the next 48hrs with 7-15cms additional snow from SE Essex down to E.Hampshire in a broadly WSW direction. The trackc is just a little displaced further south than a classic ENE thames streamer apart from perhaps tonight so ARONE has a little less in S.Essex than you'd expect in such a flow, even I end up with 5-7cms from it which will be a good outcome.
Woke up to a dusting this morning mate! Whether we’ll get any more though.....still blowing about lightly in the wind.
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Blessed Weather
Evening Matt, (and any others up this late!) - bit unrelated to the current model discussion, but as you may remember, we spoke briefly a few weeks ago about the pending late Nov/early Dec weather, likely possibility of snow, and good tyres lol, and I mentioned I was heading to Scotland.
So in brief as pos: Drove up Nov 19 and got back to Hants last Wed 2nd December. Did I see snow up there? You bloody bet I did!!!!!
First snow saw on the mountain peaks (Nevis range) on the 24th, as I was working my way up the W Highland coast. I then took the Jeep up the Bealach Na Ba mountain pass (google it, it's an adrenalin rush) on the 25th, to scenes of a winter wonderland at the top. Then stayed in a Bothy nearby and walked back the following morning to glorious mountain views and heavy sleet showers. On the 26th I climbed Stac Pollaidh in blizzard conditions and started to almost fear for my effing life 60 mph winds and driving snow in my face, pretty surreal, and a bit nuts on my part but a blast still. 27th I left Ullapool for the extreme NW Highlands and drove through mountaineous winter wonderland scenes. Wild camped on a beach in the sleet, wind then predictably....rain! Then as I worked my way down to the Cairngorms on the 28th, saw more snow than imagined on the 29th near Tomintoul to the tune of near 2-3 foot drifts up to my knees. Never been in such deep snow, and this was days after the Cairngorms had heavy overnight falls. Anyway, I drove some sketchy as hell ice rink roads and went full-on Jeep-skating, but never lost traction once! Total blast. Can't say the same for the VW passat estate some Toyota tried to tow, lorry, van and other few cars I saw out in the ditch! But the Scots are on it when it comes to snow ploughing, they keep most of the roads clear.
If anyone ever wants genuine wilderness, natural beauty and isolation - head to the NW Highlands. It's unbeatable in the UK. Even the Cairngorms aren't that remote - plenty of dog walkers, cyclists and big forest tracks everywhere....W Highland coast every time. Over and out!