[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Heavy snow in Merthyr.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Well peeps can say what they want but i'm seriously not happy, the charts look CRAP again this morning. UKMO with no chance of snow for anywhere in the Midlands for the next 5 days, GFS is the same... It's another couple of inches for the East and South East job again. Why can't we just have a straight Easterly like in Feb? That delivers for the Midlands because snow showers blow right inland all the way to the Welsh borders at times, none of this North Easterly turning into a Northerly nonsense.

So i'm going to have to sit here freezing my ass off for the next week again because our boiler still doesen't work and I am going to see no snow just cold dry freezing days.

For once... I wish it was mild.

Grim isn't it? No sign of snow anywhere on the horizon for here either and according Glacier Point in the In Depth model discussion February is going to be very mild and wet, and he's been bang on with his long range forecasts so far. The frosts over the coming days will be an OK consolation but to be honest I'd prefer a huge dumping like in 07/08 and then back to SWlys. At least those 2 day toppler battlegrounds deliver the goods if it's snow you're looking for.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Those fronts and associated NW winds are more likely to give us snow this weekend than anything pushing up from the south IMO.

NMM doesn't show up much precip for anywhere in Wales til Jan 2nd

(accumulated precip)

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Same here - loads of promises but nothing tangible.

Bah.

Yep. I almost want 2-3 weeks of mild bartlett zonality to "reset" things and then get a renewed blast of winter in mid-late Jan/Feb. This cold slushy wetness while waiting for a snowy big freeze, and constantly getting dissapointed, is getting depressing, at least you know what you're gonna get with a bartlett and tropical SWlys.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

It's sleeting here. No snow on the horizon looking at the charts, don't think that low will give us anything. Am rather getting weather fatigued waiting for this winter to deliver, anyone else?

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Does anyone know if there is any snow left on the Brecon Beacons, esp Pen-Y-Fan? I might go up on Friday.

I can see Pen Y Fan from my house and it's very white, I bet there's 8-12 inches up there.

There's a few inches on the 400m hill near me. Might be less now though due to the rain.

As for Sunday/Monday next week, the GFS is now placing the LP further south, as per other models, personally I think will end up nowhere near Wales.

Latest GEM's got it pretty close to us:

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Rain turning to sleet/wet snow here... cold air digging back in?

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Rain, often heavy, here. We had about 30mm of rain yesterday today, if temps had been 1-2c lower that probably would have been 30cm of snow. Ah well.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Maybe this time our luck will be in?

Potential snow event for Sunday and early next week.

[General Model Output Discussion:]

Hmmm I'm getting a feeling of Dejavu

Hopefully the result is much better this time.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Once the cold is locked in then we will have a better chance of a full snow "guaranteed" event.

True, precipitation in Wales is normally not much of an issue is it, the cold is the imporant and rare ingredient... if we get that then the odds of snow shoot up rapidly.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

just looked at the forecast on here for my area, and i know it will change but are our next chances thursday, and then sunday night into monday? still along way off but im trying to look for our next best chance now.

Next Monday looks a chance of snow with a channel low moving in from the SW, similar to this one but it should be cold enough for snow this time... if it comes off which is unlikely.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Here's the Met Office warning for my town tonight and tomorrow:

60% Merthyr Tydfil

There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of Wales and central England. Periods of sleet and snow are likely to persist well into Wednesday. The snow will be heavy at times with drifting likely in strong easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions over hills.

10-15cm of snow is likely widely with 25cm or more possible over high ground of Wales.

So I can expect 10-15cm of snow tonight and tomorrow? Where exactly is that going to come from? It's clearly nonsense yet they still have it up, if I hadn't seen the models I'd be preparing to shovel myself out of my house by the morning

, what if I depended on their warnings for my plans? Not good enough is it?

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

yep

we all know their were covering their behinds, BUT when a severe event DOES happen now, I reckon people will just brush it off, 'aw, nothing happened last few times, nothing will happen this time'

cue hundreds of people getting trapped in cars etc etc

I'm convinced that'll happen now.

True, in fact when we DID actually get proper snow (3-4 inches in valleys last week) there were no "Heavy Snow" warnings at all. Oh well, I suppose it's a difficult job.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Total non event here...hours of sleet...yah boo sucks with knobs on Met Office...big fat raspberry coming your way...where's the 10-15cms you guys said we'd have?

Sorry boys...hours of sleety rain doesnt cut it. Maybe next time eh?

Met Office got this one wrong for sure. It seems only upland (~+300m) areas have received any significant accumulations while they mentioned in their warnings 4-6 inches down to lowland areas of Wales/Midlands.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

There is still some heavy precipitation set for tomorrow morning, I know earlier we had 4-6cm within a few hours, or is this likely to be even more rain?

Looks like rain apart from higher ground in Mid Wales/N. Wales

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

I get the feeling here that this "event" has generally been quite a let down considering the promise, though a few areas have done well. Very dissapointing though considering what the models were showing and what could have been. This winter hasn't really delivered yet unfortunately. Let's some megablizzards come in Jan-Feb.

I do feel we will get our turn for something special sometime this winter...

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

The snow is now starting to properly settle, temperature must have dropped, but the snow is a lighter now. I suppose if it keeps snowing moderately through the night and temp keeps dropping we could end up with a covering...

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

What depths have you south Waliens got, where it actually snowed. How heavy was it?

Despite a good 4-5 hours of snow, often heavy, the total depth is a few mm of slush on the grass. A total disaster this "event". Yet the Met Office still have warnings for up to 8 inches of snow for my town...

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Throwing in the towel here, it's just not sticking for whatever reason despite heavy dry snow. No accumulations here.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

I'm not understanding why it's not sticking properly. Very heavy snow over us looking at the radar which should cause it to stick on even the wettest ground but its not.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

This really is very frustrating... if the temp was 1c lower and uppers 1c lower we'd probably have a few inches by now. It's like someone is taking the p---.

It is definitely getting heavier now though so hopefully there is a slim chance of it settling. If it doesn't I can walk up the mountain near me (450m) and see a covering anyway.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

Notably, the NAE and high-res models remain keen - even after the earlier more widespread rain - to call for around 10-15cm snow potential in lowland Wales, West Midlands, Forest of Dean, Cotswolds and some other areas north of the M4.

This is from Ian Fergusson, the BBC weather presenter in the SW thread. Sadly I just can't see how lowland areas of Wales could get 10-15cm out of this when I'm in a relatively high area near the Brecon Beacons and have got a 3mm layer of wet slush from over 1 hr 30mins of snow.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.]

this winter for the Amman Valley is panning out to be absolutely useless. We've done well in nearly every marginal setup now it's pay back places further south lower elevation are having snow and were having really heavy rain andsleet after nearly having snow earlier. I give up stupid bloody weather.

Frurstrating isn't it... most overhyped winter ever so far (for this area at least). I actually did get a decent covering last week but most other areas of Wales haven't even had that so far.

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Getting a bit worried at the minute , the first band just broke up over Leicester , didn't get any ppn off it at all and then reformed heavier further North. I hope this isnt going to be the situation later.

Sorry to be a downer but I'm 700ft up near the Brecon Beacons and while its snowing it's just not settling apart from on the mountains. Just not cold enough. If it's not happening here there'll little chance for the Midlands.

Best not to expect anything from this.