Barb
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Posts posted by Barb
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Looking at the radar - am I corect in thinking that the front has now stalled just south of Liverpool/Manchester. The latest loop does not extend the PPN any further north?
WelshSnowFan 4.1 deg and now starting to fall
There's 2 fronts, the warm front which just passed giving us mainly rain/sleet (now stalled and weakening) and the more potent occlusion now moving in from the SW, which should be much more wintry. However I will believe it when I see it.
The Met Office do have a flash warning for heavy snow for much of the valleys so hopefully all hope is not yet lost.
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Personally I'd prefer a bartlett with tropical south westerlies and heavy rain than this cold damp slushy sleety rubbish.
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Rain/sleet here. What a dissapointment.
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Latest NOGAPS looks fine:
Basically no model remotely agrees with GFS. Even the small ones.
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We had a heavy wet snow shower earlier with a temporary dusting up on the mountain. A sign of things to come I hope.
the clear focus of PPN discrimination (rain v snow) effectively starts M4 northwards and through M5 corridor up into the Midlands, with Wales looking potentially very nasty indeed for blizzards (in the genuine sense, rather than media hyperbole definition)I'd take that thank you very much.
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I stand corrected - what I meant to say is they have not changed the warnings - they have just added the potential snow depths. These are still only advisories, and like Jackone said, they do not mean this will happen - they are only advisories!
Percentages are still the same as the last 48 hours, just the snow depth poetential!
JK
But if they didn't think it was going to happen for us they would have removed the warnings or changed the area affected, which they haven't, so they still obviously expect significant snow for all of Wales.
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Not necesarilly you could have snow melt, drifting which could benefit you or make things worse blow all the snow away :lol:, Dont be content yet.
Well I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
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Where do you see that or are you adding totals from both warning?
Well they say 10-20cm on Tuesday (4-8 inches) and a further 5-10cm (2-4 inches) on Wednesday, so 6-12 inches is the range.
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Snow depth they estimate is 15-30cm, or ~6 inches on lower ground and ~12 inches (a foot) for higher areas. However there is still quite a bit of uncertainty so don't start planning hiring a JCB to dig yourself out of the house just yet.
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I think you will find these are the warnings I was referring to above - they have been there for the last 48 hours and have not been updated. There will probably be an updated after lunchtime today - but probably, as I said, removing us in the south and mid from the warnings. There will probably be snow, but not the heavy snow anticipated!
JK
No, they were updated 30 mins or so ago, they are new:
Issued at: 1109 Sun 27 Dec -
Met Office just released new warnings for ALL of Wales:
http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2
Tuesday - There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales during Tuesday.Outbreaks of rain spreading slowly northwards will turn to sleet and snow with heavy falls and potential for disruption to travel possible. Accumulations of 5-10cm are possible at lower levels with a risk of 10-20cm at higher levels accompanied by strengthening easterly winds giving drifting in places. There remains uncertainty over the areas at risk which will be kept under review.
Wednesday - There is a moderate risk of severe weather continuing to affect parts of England and Wales on Wednesday.Overnight snow, heavy at times, will become lighter and clear slowly southwards from some parts during the course of the day. Further accumulations of 5-10cm are possible in places. There remains uncertainty over the areas at risk which will be kept under review.
Reflecting the latest FAX charts I guess.
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Today's latest Fax charts should please you Midlanders (and us Welsh).
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Has anyone looked at the Fax charts for 72/84 hours? They look pretty great to me for more southern areas, though I am not an expert. Looks nothing like the GFS. Expert opinion?
Here:
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This really is a set-up that has never showed up before on the internet era,we have to go back to basics and the 80`s as this will bring severe weather in the form of drifting once the cold air digs in afterwards my favourite type of weather after thunderstorms,I`m very excited about this week.
Nobody for sure will know what will happen.
http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0a.gif
I'm not really an expert but those Faxs look pretty great to me. Especially for valleys/Mid Wales.
Even Cardiff/Swansea might get a dumping from that.
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Just had some sleety showers here... signs the cold is coming back.
Met Offfice forecast this morning has snow for my town on Tuesday and Wednesday.
http://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/merthyr_tydfil_forecast_weather.html
The GFS is horrible for us in Wales, even N. Wales. But the ECM and the GEM are great. UKMO are OK especially for Mid Wales.
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GFS has the atlantic smashing in by 2nd of Jan. Personally I think it's lost the plot, especially considering the OP was big mild outlier in FI on the 00z. Or it's somehow picked up something none of other models have.
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Well GEM shows blizzards down to the South coast while GFS has snow only for N. England/Scotland. Pretty big difference at just 3 days out I think.
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ECM @ Tuesday night
Blizzards down to M4
GFS @ Tuesday night
Blizzards only for N England/Scotland
Also here's GEM, further south again. Huge disagreement at this range:
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I'm really confused about the GFS. It's been all over the place in this cold spell. The only models that have been consistent are the ECM and GEM.
The GFS ensembles though have been decent for the South, but the op has been on the brandy a lot this Christmas i think.
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After seeing the 00z op I consoled myself that the 06z couldn't be any worse... I was wrong.
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For my area, for snow it looks like this:
GFS op: Horrific
GFS ensembles: OK
ECM: Great
GEM: Great
UKMO: Poor
FAX: OKish
GME: Great
I sure don't know what'll happen.
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The Beast from the East returns with vengeance in FI after a hard fought battle with the Altantic.
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The blocking is putting a valiant fight against the Atlantic on this run, looks like it might win too.
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For the record... the GEM and ECM have the snow boundary further South.
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Proper snow here but its not heavy enough and its not cold enough to stick. It could snow until next year and it still wont stick, it may aswell be raining. Completely useless.
6-12 inches LOL.