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Flash Elvis

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    South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Apologies I get frustrated. 

    To quote from @fergieweather: Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

    It is strange he has not commented on London, SE & EA where actually it is not as marginal...I suppose it is whether the precip survives the trundle S and the time of day.

    Well the precip looks to make its way towards our region ideally before 9am as higher WBFL move in from the west, WBFL- the height above sea level where the temperature is at freezing point modelled by GFS is <100m WBFL at 6am for your part of SE Essex.... you would have no trouble seeing snow with that. 

    I definitely think the hills might get a light covering the downs ect.

    If you get frustrated take it out on your Mrs please ...not me :rofl:

    But thank you very much for an explanation...... although I will have a look at where is Essex we have any place above 100m!! 

    South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    in Regional

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Chill peeps, I know this winter has been bad, we are a family in here a team not enemies! Here is a detailed look at tomorrow morning

    We will use 6-10am as the time zone

    First off PPN... Most important right?

    Net weather model.. yes                             NNM... Yes                                              Arpege NO                                         EURO4 yes and no bit hit and miss..                                     

    56b0d3a19fd7d_net1.thumb.png.74dc540d44e   56b0d3e405a96_nnm1.thumb.png.2c3d36dfe0f56b0d447f2069_arp1.thumb.png.847427464cb56b0d47060913_euro4.thumb.gif.10549e965d

     

    GFS Yes but this is not a high res

     56b0d4a03c6d7_GFS1.thumb.gif.69a8d80421d

     

    TEMP 

    NNM is cold but only till around 5am after it;s too warm this is a similar story with the net weather high res 

    56b0d5046c9d3_temp1nnm.thumb.png.5e3919f                                  56b0d64bc6f7f_net2.thumb.png.cc31efd702d

     

    Based on the above do I think someone will see a flake? Yes but if your around 125m + Will it settle? No way...   

     

     

     

    Temps and dew points

     

    Thank you!! :D

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    in Regional

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    See the above if you have eyes :wink::D 

    @Surrey well I don't really care, it would just be nice to see in this rather void winter.

    proof is in the pudding Elvis.. Could end up a bust for all I know. However the parameters are there for snow to fall to low levels especially London/North Kent northwards.

    As illustrated by that WBFL chart snowray provided.

    I have eyes............. but some seriously un-trained eyes so if you wouldn't mind awfully explaining what I am actually meant to be looking at it would be a great help to me!!!

     

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Surrey said:

    I really wouldn't be getting any hopes up re tonight's rain:

     

    Regional forecast for London & South East England

    Very windy and cold.

    Today:

    Staying windy but with cloud and patchy rain clearing through the morning to leave a largely fine and dry afternoon with sunny spells, though it will feel chilly. Maximum Temperature 8°C.

    Tonight:

    Winds continuing to ease with long clear periods at first allowing a rural grass frost in places. Clouding over later from the north but most parts will stay dry. Minimum Temperature 1°C.

    Wednesday:

    A fairly cloudy morning is expected with outbreaks of rain. During the afternoon most parts will become dry possibly with some bright or sunny periods developing from the north. Maximum Temperature 8°C.

    Looks like good old lamp post watching with a cold beer tonight!!!

    As for the weekend and beginning of the week...I think my weather sensors will be coming down to keep them safe "IF" we get those predicted gusts, but as always plenty of spanners to be thrown about still 

    Storm Henry

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Surrey said:

    12z rolling out.. Stay safe folk up North looks like it might be the souths turn later this week into the weekend

    Will it?.... you say different in regional thread matey I am a bit confused although it doesn't take a lot :nonono: (Please don't take that the wrong way though!!!)

    I have kinda cast my extremely un-trained eye and notice it getting a bit breezy sunday but nothing much else.

    Gonna be a nasty one up north tonight and into the wee hours...stay safe everybody

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