misha
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Posts posted by misha
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I personally believe such an idea would be bad news for our gradually diminishing ecosystems. Yes, it sounds on paper to be an awesome scene from days of yonder, where Wolves, Lynxes roam across our landscape, alongside more familiar species. The problem I fear and a lot of scientific study has been produced on such matters is the prey and predator relationship. There are already many stressed relationships where predators are bringing down the numbers of our once common Bird species, for example. Other issues such as habitat fragmentation would mean that once these beasts are established widely, they would come into areas where mankind doesn't wish to see them. When we dream up these weird and wonderful introductions (thinking retrospectively here as well) do we ever consult the countryside managers, land owners and farmers, farmworkers and ask for their thoughts? For example, Beavers were originally seen as a harmless introduction and probably still are, however, they too are now venturing far and wide into English rivers, well away from their original homes. Nice Beavers.
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Looks like a sunflower to me.
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Certainly everywhere north+northwest of Argyll and Bute/Perthshire/Aviemore has seen a distinct lack of snow due to the predominant easterly rather than northerly winds. I'd imagine it was the same in 1947 and in 1963 when the easterly tendency was particularly strong, though in '47 less so because of the massive breakdown snowfalls that occured in the first half of March.
It hasn't been, as it was in 2009/10, 1995/96, 2000/01, March 2006 or January 1984, a Scottish-centred winter, and certainly not a classic Highland winter because of the lack of northerlies, with the mean troughing sitting too far south with the core of the heights too far east for much of a northerly influence. However, the Cairngorms still tend to do pretty well out of either setup, and the last time I looked Cairngorm was sitting at around 1.5m on its upper slopes, which is impressive for the end of March.
A more zonal winter in fact would probably favour the Highlands more in relative terms because with high precipitation and any cold uppers arriving from the northwest or north any snow would have to affect the Highlands.
Anyone seeing the benefit of increased convection in the last few hours? Looks like it may soon be intense enough for snow to start settling again in Dundee and Fife , given the low DPs.
Would agree with this LS and as a lad, the biggest snowfalls I had in Argyll were from attempted Atlantic incursions into an easterly regime, stalling and then dumping. Sometimes very localised and not even reaching the Ayrshire coast. Prior to this we would have cold frosty weather while jealously hearing reports of snow on the East Coast!
The best snow I have ever seen happened on the Kintyre peninsula during the eighties in just such a setup (very similar to what we have now ) beating my more recent experience on the east coast of December 2010 though obviously not the longevity. I still have photos of me standing on 20 foot drifts at 50 feet asl lol!
As for increased convection - I hope so because I'm sick of these snow grains blawin in the wind - either intensify or jeest bring spring please!
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Just thought I'd post this - my old home toon is Campbeltown, parents still there, and they've been cut off since Friday. Power down, provisions and generators being brought in by boat (remember this is mainland!). Just got in touch with them today as telephone/mobile networks down as well. Not seen much on news about this, mainly Arran.
Anyway, here's a couple of photo's from Explore Kintyre's facebook page of the main road to Campbeltown which is still closed - on the Atlantic West Coast in the balmy waters of the Gulf Stream!
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OK kilted thread! Had enough of this cold here on the East Lothian coast! Blowing non lying light snow, slate grey skies really does not float ma boat and mullers ma plants. Give me average temps now please, need to plant out ma veg!
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GFS delivers another spectacular Atlantic Dartboard Low.. 917mb !!!!!!
Mind bending model output..
Yep, 5 days away Lorenzo and 917mb? What! FI is ridiculous at the mo!! If the models can't decide who are we to decide lol!
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Yeah, huge variations across the city even in terms of precipitations intensity, big flakes and more moderate here but that East Lothian pulse looks like it will hit within ten-twenty minutes.
Hi LS, yep, that pulse has started to hit here on coastal East Lothian, the snow is heavy and starting to stick so for anyone in Embra - should be OK.
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Right here on the coast at (if this doesn't say cockroft when referring to a bbc forecaster, I have maturity issues) Cockenzie and Port Seton, been on and off snaw for 4 hours - prob just under an inch now on ground. From a SE? Unusual. Looking at the radar, forget your Forth-Clyde streamers, we have a Newcastle-East Lothian streamer!
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It seems to me that the signals for cold weather with the models are very significant - although I think some members are seeing FI synoptics that really are not likely to come off! I've lurked and watched the posts from our more experienced members and none of them have suggested extreme cold (below average yes). Indeed, looks to me like an old fashioned winter with cold followed by mild then cold etc - nice snow events though! I think what we all have to keep in mind is that these very interesting synoptics are being produced in the first place.
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Unfortunately it seems PT conditions are currently higher than the equilibrium univariant Ih+L phase boundary for the single component H2O system, placing things comfortably in the L region.
In other words, it's raining.
For all those doon sooth and in the MT who worry about T850's, evaporative cooling and likelihood of snaw - you've never had it so good! I remember my childhood when we had NO weather as seen by this BBC Scotland forecast at the time..
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Gorgeous foties CH! Size of sun halos here - http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2002/24oct_sunrings/
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OK, thought I would give a Winter forecast based on absolute variables, peerless models and CFS (Changes F'n Scenario), possible stratospheric warming and cooling (very cool so it is), wave events (hello!), glacier points, and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, or Chionio if you prefer. (when the snow heads to Greek I believe) - In summary, this Winter is gonna be coldish, with occasioanal warmish interludes and snow to low levels occasionally, overall it will be 0.000000000001C below average.
And I'm sorry - my forecast is as good as anyones lol!
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Some rather daft posts in here this evening.
Remember there is a thread for specific moaning.
Don't know what we would do without the 'voice of reason'! Thankyou John!!
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OK, lurker here!! Please don't hurt me lol!
My view - the technical guys - GP, Chiono, Nick F et al fantastic and very sound science here folks. (I do follow the links!). Teleconnections, hmmmm (I will not pretend to understand) no, however, what a great learning resource this forum is!! My personal forecast? - below average winter, so snow for everyone - just don't ask me when or where!! Just ask Mr Holmes, he'll tell you
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Just had a rather loud and close CG strike here in Port Seton, was watering plants in windowsill and BANG! Car alarms going off for miles around.
C/2012 S1 (ison) Could Be The Brightest Comet Ever Seen By Mankind
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
While I'm disappointed that Comet Ison may not provide the celestial fireworks we had hoped for it's nice to see the Universe throwing us a curveball yet again. Fascinating to follow and who knows what will happen next!