Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

mezzacyclone

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    769

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by mezzacyclone

    Model banter returns

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mezzacyclone

    as posted above: "MAD thread" lol

    Plain to see & the fights and anarchy akin to the 5 points in NYC of old will always spark up from time to time  

    High velocity fuelled by the rarity of good model runs that lead to hope of what the vast majority (unlike the old banter that ian b, a pint of mild and mushy etc) wish to physically transpire and what their longing for?

    Is it not that a SSW (split or daughter vorts), warm 60degree to poleward PCH(polar cap geo heights) anomlies, negative WaFz (strat wind reversal), Neg AO and NAO, MMW (Major Mid-winter Warming, not addressed so far ive witnessed?) and phase favoured MJO etc etc are certainly NOT the minimum concrete tangibles to put the UK in the freezer?

    can it be labelled a similarity to a microclimate where the majority of locales (C Europe?) bear brunt of the teleconnects with the cold yet us in the UK require much more besides?

    The GFS "nemesis" does not really struggle with Strat and trop coupling? It handled the recent deep cold in C Europe really well? and as things turn out most on the swingometer  have switched to their more zonal pattern anyway as things stand today?

    I used to enjoy the model thread but now see it as a free for all where little is clear and everyone is expected to be a boffin with scant regard for decency at times and where their used to be debate on pro , (SACRA lol) anti and neautral cold weather then these days its massively weighted in the pure cold fans majority?

    I have no real motive for this ditty? But the general air has changed massively over the years, but is that in itself due to NW popularity increase? 

    anyways, may banter reign, though the models fall  

    (sidenote: this view was posted prior to any 12z data output? but 168hr+ is a sinister drug )

     

    • Like 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by mezzacyclone

    Lots to eyeball but I`m interested in ECM migrating the SH SEwards over to Caspian sea/Kazakstan (although it forms a weak ridge over Finland midweek?) or the GFS holding its lat yet moving Ewards to C Russia?

    Either way an inevitable mobile return next week is 60/40?

    WRussian/C&E European cooling is always a bonus this time a year?

    hello again everyone btw

    • Like 2

    Saturday evening into Sunday 2nd Storm

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    That was a huge backdown from most of the models and quite alarming given them originally being shorterm 60-72hrs out so just goes to show accuracy is still far from certain right up until showtime, moreso when lots of factors are at play as per-present.

    (Interestingly the new GFS FV3 test model stuck with a casual 1000-1003mb low tracking east through southern england deepening all the way to west russia before filling, this model also did very well with hurricane florence when the vast majority started out predicting a fish yet the FV3 maintained outputs of a carolina landfall from extremely far out right up to imminent landfall?)

    Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Next upd highly likely to give official TS status (but already a TD?), surface level circulation, 35kn gusts, CDO more defined etc. strongest winds 35mph in SE sector,

    WV looks to be popping on latest runs, COC 70-90 south of Praia (CV isle) but light to mod easterly shear is fringing the southern area at 200-150hPa?

    been a while since anything this far east raised interest with favourable conditions ahead throughout?

     

     

    td6.jpg

    Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Lauren said:

    Is there a really easy to understand infographic I can use to explain the difference between a subtropical, tropical and extratropical storm to someone?

    I dont know what an "infographic" is? but i can offer a simple example that warm cores are tropically derived from high temp waters and thus grow off them while cold core extra-tropicals are maintained through a meeting of warm and cold air masses? Albeit derived from a sub tropical disturbance or not? If thats incorrect or not i dont know? :D

    Their must be something in the tutorilas here tho?

    Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    So the Atlantics predicted to finally awaken?

    a few models are progging development of the next wave leaving W Africa late weds/early thurs. (but in all honesty a previous one has currently continued and made it out to 37` W with thunderstorms spawning then relenting repeatedly?)

    FWIW the new FV3 GFS (experimental, to work alongside the GFS planned for next year) has the next wave exiting as an immediate LLC finishing with a 960mb fish off the east US coast so this will be a good baseline test for it? but it (FV3) receives data later than current GFS so its validity is highly suspect like other lesser models & may well be nothing more than eye candy for what`s been a dull start for the ATL basin.

     

    thurs 30th wave off Africa progression.jpg

×
×
  • Create New...