rich1
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Posts posted by rich1
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Any progression of this band anywhere near Surrey/Hants yet...or is it fizzling away already?
Have a feeling we are just going to be stuck with cold cloud all day, much to the satisfaction of the mild lovers working for the BBC who see snow as evil
still, we still have quite a bit here from sunday, not bad in this day and age -
Just seen this update from Met O:
Yep, and it still gives me some hope but cant help but think its more precautionary than anything at the same time too...going by the accuracy of recent forecasts I am not holding my breath...but is cold and the skies are threatening and the thaw of lying snow is still very slow here, with cold air moving behind the system, maybe it might give us a token few CM's here if we are lucky. Maybe I might go for a day on the Downs or something if it is that borderline as not currently working at the moment and want to put off the horrible job hunt process, might go on a snow search
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Just overcast and dampish here, though there is a weather warning out for the surrey area so maybe it might improve later
Not too suprised really but cant help feeling annoyed with the met office this morning, if I looked so happy to mess up at my job I would expect the sack
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Think its a question of patience, think many places away from the east coastal areas and areas like Kent should hopefully see snow by the end of tomorrow. Hopefully not too much rain before then
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Regretibly his credibility has gone out the window like his namesake in No.10.
Yes, I think his 'even larger teapot' theory looks as dead as a doornail now. A milder february does not change my view one iota. As it happens, think this february and maybe March as well could well turn out to be pretty cold overall, with the effects of La Nina becoming more pronounced in early spring too
Suspect we could be in a new cycle now, the 'post modern' era if you will...
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just watching the bbc news weather, looks like it could be snow, then turning to rain, anywhere north of essex north london looking good in the morning
mentioned it turning sleety as it clears...not sure about that, there is colder air coming in behind the system
as it is, think most of us west of kent should see something
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I think its a look out the window situation again
No snow down here today during daylight hours but was a bit wintrier last night than expected and the snow pack wasnt reduced as much as I thought it may be by the rain and sleet, and was a little snow too, with the day temp only about 2-3 degrees when it was estimated to be 5 or 6. On the recent forecasts we are about on the boundary for it starting as snow, I think though judging by recent events and the potential over estimating of temps in some areas by the beeb for today, I would think that Kent it will start as Rain, maybe east surrey sleety to begin with, but as the band sinks slowly southwards many people should see snow west of east kent at least falling
Am hoping that there will not be too much rain first, as I dont want the snowpack we still have here to be eroded, if it stays any snow which falls should settle more readily. Should be interesting...as it is think the forecasts are subject to change, suspect it will be modelled a bit further south in the event, London may well be in the firing line
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Very happy with this winter, consistently cold and looks as though even down here we could end up with a snowy february, a hallmark of a classic winter
Nice thing also is the consistency of the cold, even the 80's winters usually had one mild month [usually December], February if it ends up cold would match those in that regard
Reminded me of 1990-1 this one, a very good winter after 2 really dire ones, sometimes happens like that, and really we were due a cold winter season after several poor springs and summers, couldnt be cool summers and mild winters forever :lol:
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Is Met Office policy to plug GW...why else would their website be called 'Weather and Climate Change'?
incidentally I do feel that is far too much of an agenda riven title for a publicly funded websiteHe could be right, he could be wrong...but if we see more of these in the coming years it may pose a few interesting questions...in any case these kind of events werent common even in the days before GW was invented
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Modern winters indeed! Its been just the same here, we had around half a centimeter overnight which has just gradually melted all day despite constant light/moderate snow showers. The temperatures have just been too marginal (theres that word again) on low ground in the east in proximity to the coast.
Its been a good and widespread snow event for many areas, but still pales into comparison to past events.
I was rather concerned that if this event didnt deliver, what exactly would it actually take to give deep snow in eastern coastal districts? If this is the best we can do in an apparent cold winter with good synoptics, is it time to accept the fact that those days of proper snow are over in our locations?
eh? about a foot has fallen here, the most since 91. My mother says she hasnt seen so much snow since 1981 when I was born...
Some patterns deliver better for some places than others. Also Europe isnt exceptionally cold [though not mild] at the moment so...had this happened when Europe was cold in early january then there wouldnt be all this twaddle
as it is, for many places, this has delivered big style and what has fallen may well lie for a good few days in quite a few places, some places are unlucky, is the way it goes
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Very, very different this year
If more of us had had snow, this winter would be going down as a potential classic for some areas. It could still do so, the intensity and severity of the frost I have not seen for years, the consistent downgrading of mild periods in the models, the absense of rain and wind, is a long way from being a 'even larger teapot'. Reminds me a little of 05-06 in dryness but the december-jan period looks genuinely cold, especially the further south you are
Up north they had most of the cold weather in the first half of december, here the january frosts have really been intense, all the more remarkable in the context that we may have had perhaps a half dozen ground frosts in the last few januaries, we may be getting more than that in the first week to 10 days of this one
a snowy period later in the winter and quite a few people will be calling this one as the best seen in some time. i would not bet against it...as far as I am concerned this is the best winter so far since 2000-1 and is a good chance it will be the coldest in over a decade, perhaps longer. So long as La Nina doesnt fire up [feel we will see that affect our weather patterns later in the year, maybe spring/summer...hmm <_< ]
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Steady snowfall, heavy at times here and clouds dark
pity it didnt come about 4 hours earlier as the initial dusting was thawing, so not settling too well...but guess today just goes to show the doom mongering about how bad this cold spell was with no snow was misplaced :lol:
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I think her phrase "disappointingly cold" was rather revealing. Bottom of the class for La Tobin.
The Beeb in general have been a little lack lustre over the Christmas/New Year period - time to see more of their better and more experienced forecasters Hammond, Gibbs, Corbett, Rob Mc et al. They are also missing the sparkly Helen Willetts (on maternity duty).
Whether or not they are correct to downplay tonight's snow event will shortly be revealed.
i think its p*** poor tbh...I find it incredible that for weather enthusiasts making a career in the job cannot sum up a little more enthusiasm for the odd spell of cold weather than they show, we never EVER hear anyone say 'disappointingly mild' or 'at least it wont be mild'
the best we get is maybe Rob McKelwee saying that the weather is seasonal, picturesque or some times referring to the fact that this has been a 'proper winter'...fair play to the man but why is he in the minority? Most [though not all] weather enthusiasts in this country prefer colder weather to mild in winter but the professionals seem to always think mild rules ok and cold is always bad. Guess its target audience but it gets on my nerves
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Ian isn't nor wasn't banned and if you had been bothered to read the thread you would already know!!
ok, fair enough, though he seems to think so...
he deserves all the flak he gets, he could be taken more seriously if he wasnt so arrogant, because hes not without some knowledge, is just he is intransigent and the way he expresses himself is that it 'is' this, not 'might be'
as it is, his synoptics so far have been inaccurate, and no sign of the Christmas/New Year storm and the mildest january ever is looking a teensy bit shaky. i am not going to say it wont happen for 100% certain though, unlike Ian brown would be saying this progged cold spell 100% wont happen the way it is modelled to do so and that January will definitely end up abovbe average, but even if it does turn milder it is unlikely to be in the way he envisioned
He ruins his credibility by being so sweeping, and his forecast is basically a copy and paste for 2006-7 and looks like being a little off target. If I was going to be cynical I would guess he read a review of the atmospheric circumstances surrounding this last winter and the one prior to it and basically repasted it in his own words and threw in one or two 'piers corbyns' in to boot. I think Steve's throughts on it on that forum sum things up quite well...
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To be fair Rich, he could still be right even though the charts would suggest otherwise, It would need a major mild spell for Jan to become above average IF the current cold charts occurs.
I seem to remember IB's infamous posts on here regarding ''winter is over'' and the ''christmas pudding'' etc but there is nothing wrong for him having an opinion though so i don't really see what he is doing wrong but then again i have not been looking at the TWO forum for a good while now so maybe he is being more of an WUM than i first thought.
He expresses himself in certainties...like its not that mild 'might' win out, is mild 'will' win out...end of discussion
is trolling, is why he was banned here, you have to work pretty hard to get yourself in trouble on sites like these but as far as Ian Brown is concerned, its not hard to see how. Arrogant isnt the word... :lol:
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Looks hopelessly wrong...Ian Brown's form horse has gone lame on him
he has admitted on Two, reluctantly, after another display of egotistical trolling, that the mildest january ever may not happen now [though of course it will be above average...note 'will' as he appears 100% certain on it :lol: ]
why on earth the mods over there dont turf him out I cannot fathom, hes been causing untold damage for a good 6 weeks now...
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Looks like the Atlantic is going to finally shunt away the real cold stuff that has managed to linger around our region for the last week around the 15th does seem to have a fair chance of being blown away and that means that the CET will rise probably a lot back towards average if that pattern holds for any length of time.
Is what we would expect to happen in the normal run of things, but not so sure this december is in the normal run of things...the divergence in the output says to me that they are struggling a bit with the pattern for the end of next week. It wont stay cold forever but one thing I have noticed in recent times is for mild spells to be downgraded in much the same way as cold spells have been in recent winters. I think this Decembers CET will struggle to get out of the 3's at best, and as far as actual weather, uncertainty kicks in very early, which makes a change from bartlettised years where you can predict 10 days ahead no bother
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As I have said in the other thread, this is very lame here...day and night the same temp, no sun, just a colder version of what we had for the whole of november...an unremitting unbreakable cloud sheet wasting this cold spell away. Yuk
is so frustrating because these patterns are unusual but just seem to be not delivering anything interesting in terms of visible coldness like frost etc yet where I am and it could pass without delivering anything whatsoever. SE has been well and truly starved of joy with this one...
still, we still have quite a bit here from sunday, not bad in this day and age 
incidentally I do feel that is far too much of an agenda riven title for a publicly funded website
Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Sleet falling now, turning in to wet snow
earlier than I thought...maybe something might come out of this after all