Snowaddict

Hi Tamra, Indeed, that is often the case and it's so very diffcult to get patterns in place that effect our own needle in the global heystack, but as you say, the event has been extraordinary. Don't give up hope fully yet, you never know, we might just reap some of the effects. SA.

Thank you for the update CN. Even as a newcomer to this topic, the reversal of the winds back to westerly around the 21/22 February as indicated would seem like a very logical tigger so to speak, for the main thrust of propogation to the surface & is perhaps the very beginning of the period when we will start to experience the effects on the ground? SA.

Very interesting update Stuart. Obviously the Met O are expecting the weather to turn colder and potentially wintry again during the medium term, interesting update. Many thanks.

Having spent an hour gathering the stats and doing the math, happy to report that using Mr. Data's winter index equation for my location here in southeast Ireland, the result, to February 14th 2009 is: 75.2582. That's a very impressive index value for my location, given that Ireland is more exposed to an Atlantic influence and less exposed to a continental influence. Let's hope it can clock up a few more marks before the winter is out. Regards, SA.

An excellent read as always John. Very understabale all the way through. Fair play to you for producing such a comprehensive forecast, given all of the current conflicting background signals.

Excellent forecast John, as always extremely well reasoned and supported. Your knowledge certainly was missed in anticipation of the most recent wintry outbreak! Regards, SA. :o

Very much so The Eagle. GFS 06Z also agrees with this line of thought, with some very low maxes being indicated in eastern and southeastern areas tomorrow, as well as fairly widespread snow risk. Seems to be very similar to the evolution that has occured in recent days. I've had the best snowfall here in years, the hills in parts of county Kilkenny have drifts of 10 or more inches, with general depths of 5 to 6 inches in these higher regions. Truly excellent snowy spell and hopefully more to come. SA.

Without doubt I've had the best snow in years. Whiteout conditions during the night, with 5 inches on grassy surfaces this morning, 4 inches on the ground. I've spent the day travelling around county KK and right down to Waterford, and there is a covering of snow the whole way down from KK to the outskirts of Waterford, with significant drifting in the hills locally, drifts of up to 10 inches. Simply fantastic spell of weather.

Fantastic conditions. 6cm of lying snow, up to 8cm on grassy surfaces. The best snowfall that I have seen in over 4 years. Absolutely stunning! Let's hope the main band of precip now arriving delivers.

Good point Johnny, I hope not. Latest GFS run is stunning is all I can say for all of next week, absolutely stunning, and deep FI shows Armageddon cold. Excellent weather and excellent trends. SA.

I think you will defaintely see some, activity really kicking up now on the Irish Sea. SA.

Hey Mountain Shadow, Here's the link, just ammend the timeframe in the URL bar accordingly: http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...201_0000_24.png Regards, SA.

With upper 850 Hpa temperatures of -10 now entering the east of the country, anything that falls simply has to be snow. Once the flow becomes more unstable into the early hours, we should see some shower development. Latest ECMWF Precip forecast looks very favourable for the east and southeast from 9.00am tomorrow, continuing all day tomorrow and through tomorrow night. Let's hope we can get something decent.!

John Eagleton's forecast at 9.30pm was excellent tonight. He mentioned snow showers in the east on Monday, with strong potential for significant snow overnight on Monday into Tuesday. He stated he was very uncertain at this point, but would be very surprised if it did not snow on Tuesday. All in all, the forecast, was synoptically, a classic. Very very interesting wintry weather now coming up, possibly the best in a long time.

Just want to add my sincere wishes that Nick S is ok. This storm has caused serious damage to southwestern France and northeastern Spain, certainly a once in a decade type storm. Hope you post again on here very soon Nick, we are all very concerned.

Look at the Latest UK Met Winter Update in light of the possible developments coming up: To me, this suggests the possibility of blocked conditions: :lol: Temperature Mean temperatures are likely to be average or below average for the rest of winter over the UK Rainfall Over the UK, precipitation for the rest of winter is most likely to be average, or below average. Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages.

A very well explained forecast as ever John, and an excellent read. Very well put together. Looking forward to the next update. Rgds, SA.

Yep you're completely right there.

Hey Stuart, I posted the update in the model output discussion but it got moved to here. I'm very sorry that it got posted before you. Regards, SA.

Hmmm... According to the UK Met Office, they also believe that its not going to remain mild for very long, an opinion which I think many share at this point. As I said a few days ago, I remain far from convinced that we will encounter any prolonged milder spell at all, with any milder weather potentially only being fairly transient. This forecast is very interesting and is in tandom with several of the recent model outputs: UK Outlook for Monday 12 Jan 2009 to Wednesday 21 Jan 2009: A big change in the weather pattern is likely to have set in by early next week. For several days, strong, occasionally mild, west or southwesterly winds will bring periods of rain interspersed by brighter interludes and blustery showers. Some of the rain may be heavy, and be accompanied by gales, these perhaps severe at times in the northwest. Thereafter, it is expected to remain unsettled and occasionally windy, but may well turn colder . However, with winds blowing from a westerly point, extremes of temperature are unlikely. Nevertheless, showers are likely to turn wintry in many areas , and there is a risk of some considerable snowfall across northern hills with drifting in the strong winds. It will be frosty at times night and morning away from western coasts. Updated: 1126 on Wed 7 Jan 2009

Sounds great John and is certainly a great read. Thanks a million.

Indeed, this man is predicting a very cold and harsh winter to begin after Xmas, going on all the signals provided by nature. He states that he is 70 to 80% certain that there will be a harsh winter in terms of cold, beginning after Xmas.... SA.

Excellent post again TETIS, really appreciated. I agree with your view about Xmas completely, several of the ensemble members are very promising still. Nothing should be discounted as of yet. Regards, SA.

Next weekend does indeed appear to be a stormy period, going on the latest GFS run and other runs. This would mean an absolutely excellent call regarding the forecast. My major question is that the cold spell that is predicted to follow this stormy period... will it be something along the lines of February 1991 or a standard easterly/northerly?? Thanks...