Paul T
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Posts posted by Paul T
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And just for the record, I expect cold rain for me...thats a given, it never snows here.
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I still beleive areas over 125 mtrs+ in the NE of the region Could see a couple of inches.
If you can't get snow on the hills in late Jan from a Northerly shortwave then you may as well call it a day!
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Hi guys, a few thoughts from me.
Firstly, we are seeing unstable airflow over Wales currently and this will certainly be pumping up the shower acivity into the North East of the region im the coming hours.
temps: they will stabilise at there current levels, 850s will remain at a similar level until 6am...Anything over 100 mets will be fine as the flow has a base from the North so humidity should be slightly lower keep DPs favorable.
The polar low shortwave is forming a little more than expected. The key with this shortwave for our region is its position.
If it heads too far South East we will miss PPN and draw in warm air from west.
If it tracks along the western side of the uk and turns inland and into the channel it will be most favorable in terms of PPN and cooler local Airmass.
It is an absolute nowcast, but I think it will produce the goods later tonight from the Region over 100 mtrs...
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Penrith @ 23:30. few cms.
night
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Couple of assessments on the Radar. Interesting cells appearing - big streamer expected from those.
also, lines of showers tracking south of Scotland have alot of convection development...could be interesting
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Well im usually a south west Forum poster...but tonight and tomorrow im away on Business in Penrith of all places! I know my NAE and i think its in the firing line!
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Temp incredibly up to 5.5oC now.
Absolutely no chance of any snow at any point tonight in Portishead! Look forward to awaking to rain and 4oC. Boom!
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Warming up nicely here as usual. 2.2oC to 4.4oC in last hour. Typical!
Make that 4.7oC, surely the warmest place in UK at the mo.
Now 4.9oC.
Hoping to get the vest and flip flops out tomorrow morning.
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Well, I'm right in the firing line, poking out here into the channel - expecting sleet/wet snow towards 6am but would love thunder mixed in. Either way, I might be up pretty late tomorrow night/wed AM!
I always believe that if you get 850's below -5oC and the HGT 500-1000 under 528 and you have a real chance...great fun, and welcome after last winters dullfest!
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5.3.
back in the game!
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17.2
bit late!
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New build + south facing + second floor apartment + old couple below us = the Hottest apartment ever.
Heating hasnt been on since the cold spell in January and it's constantly 22-24oC in here. I've had the balcony doors open since i got home and its still hitting 23.2.
The missus helps herself to the duvee, no need for that 9 months of the year.
Thats one thing you can say about Persimmon - Yes, the standard of finish is not disimilar to a shack on the outskirts of Mumbai, but you will save money on your gas bill.
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06GFS has us at;
9th 11.2
10th 11.2
11th 11.0
12th 10.9
13th 10.8
14th 10.6
15th 10.4
16th 10.3
17th 10.2
Cool and mixed spell for the next couple of weeks looking likely. How dull.
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11.4oC for the moment
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Today's minimum is -1.6C while maxima look like reaching above 9C, so an increase to 3.1C is likely for tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at
3.3C to the 7th (4.7)
3.5C to the 8th (4.9)
3.7C to the 9th (5.4)
4.1C to the 10th (7.0)
4.3C to the 11th (6.3)
4.4C to the 12th (5.8]
4.6C to the 13th (6.5)
Although I do believe we will go a little cooler with the mins on the 7th and 8th to come in at 3.4oC 'to the 8th'
nitpicking at its finest
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Yes, but also land temps, ground temps, ice cover, snow cover etc.
Of course, but its 100% due to the latent heat from the sea around the Northern hemisphere...cause and effect; The warm seas around the Northern Hemisphere cause all of the afformentioned...
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They would never be reversed.
A million and one reasons why, that I do not have the time to go into.
The sea's warmer.
Didnt take long, did it!?
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Ok, So the next 7 days based on the 12z GFS;
To the 3rd = 2.6oC and the rolling CET will be:
4th: 2.8
5th: 2.8
6th: 2.9
7th: 3.1
8th: 3.3
9th: 3.6
10th: 4.0
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Just for parity, here is last March's review from the METO.
They, again, use the UK WIDE MEAN temp, not the CET. So the statistics they use for mild months is also used for cold months;
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2012/march.html
I personally use the CET temp for my comparision, as its more relevent to where I live as it doesnt take into account Northern Ireland and scotland, which are frankly irrelevent to temps and conditions in Bristol.
Paul
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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Paul T
One thing of interest for tomorrow morning is the massive difference in the PPN tracking by the GFS, NAE and Met Office (that, I understand, use NAE output)
Latest charts for 6am Friday from the GFS, NAE and MO...
Who are your bets on? Im going For something in the middle of them all!