russell k
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Posts posted by russell k
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10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Isn’t that the point thou? Calling it a bartlet high when it’s not even in that position and not forecast to stay in that position is a bit of a stretch.
Don't often quote on here but in all the years watching the run up to Christmas/New Year HP gives more chance of cold than a raging PV
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53 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Looks ok to me. Huge falls in last 7 days and this is the forecast for the run up to Christmas;
The French Meteo model shows rain@ 1100m suggest this is for a higher altitude
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8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:
That's correct.
£10 million repair estimate
£13 million estimate to remove it completely (planning consent clause).
HIE has asked the Scottish government to make a decision.
That's a shame as looks like significant snow at altitude, given that "stormbound" could be the headline!
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1 hour ago, Sceptical said:
Depths will vary according to elevation. At present, most of the pistes are brown, with artificial snow confined to a few beginner areas.
Cairngorm ski season is due to start this Saturday.
I thought the funicular was still out of operation?
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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I suggest we stop looking into the distance and instead at the back of this weekend and into the middle of next week ......Monday’s new FAX chart has an occlusion moving across in sub 528 dam ....
may not take much for it to negatively tilt and slide along the flow come verification .......
Yes would take those synoptics, much more might be In jeopardy but we are all in the ball game...await upgrades...
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:
Mild across the whole of Europe on the 240hrs due to that LP getting stuck over our shores and pumping in milder air. An easterly at that point would be next to useless!
Check , Mild outliner, best await 120/144. I stand to be corected
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59 minutes ago, Johnp said:
Considering that's more than we get most winters, I'd say it's a good run.
Yes were back, agreed lots more in the next 4/5 days and even after that opportunities for cold and snow continue, better than most winters ECM op maybe an outliner for central UK, don't often post but I think expectations are too high against the return of the beast, lots of un expected snow yesterday, expect that be the trend post 144 ...anywhere
K
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Agreed, but looking at the GFS ens big divergence at t168 with regards pressure and 850s?
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I agree with Crewe and others, that see this as a longer haul to cold, with the vortex so disrupted I'm happy to see these synoptics appear now, but a delay into December would be delightful!
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15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
This thread is a mix of analysis and the occasional toys out of prams. We’re not the BBC giving a forecast . And the ups and downs and some of the melodrama and humour in here are part and parcel of the success of these forums .
Coldies in here are not your average members of the public , the majority are snow lovers who are passionate and so no I don’t want a dry humourless emotionless thread just discussing the track of a low.
Yes of course you want to see some analysis and there’s lots of that in here, but at times it’s going to happen that we might lose it and and have the occasional moan.
Best quote of the day
("Now I Know what a Short wave is!)
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7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
I'm going to head deliberately O/T and ask the Moderators nicely to leave this in given that the Model thread has gone O/T frequently of recent and given that it is (somewhat) model-related - as was said, the feature on the eastern flank of the cut-off low to the west of the Azores is a shortwave as it's a bend in the isobars around a low - the other one bear Greenland is a secondary low as it has a closed circulation.
Thanks I now know what to look for ("not bears around Greenland" but "kinks in the isobars")
Great explanation
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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
To avoid any confusion that image Frosty posted is from yesterday's weekly forecast from the beeb it is not based on model data from today
Seems a bit selective nevertheless to delete my post!
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7 minutes ago, fromey said:
Which model does this go with???
Probably the 12z suite, which we don't see until 3.30
Maybe the pros see it roll out at the time it is run??
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1 hour ago, IDO said:
The London Ens sum up the chances for snow in the next 16 days, 5% at best. A week of below average temps then the possibility of much milder temps for the next 5-6 days as the zonal spell takes hold. The D10 mean is self-explanatory:
GEM D10
Where the boundary between higher and lower pressure meets being the main variation on the GEFS. The GEM op is 100% behind the GEFS mean.
So the rest of Jan is average UK winter fayre, cold and dry the further SE you are this week then wet and windy the further NW you are next week, with a period of uppers +8c above average at times.
Late Jan should see the NPO index move from positive slowly to negative so potential for pattern change if that is correct.
ECM 0z has really struggled at D10 of late and i would ignore their D9 & D10 charts as the model is clearly unreliable after D8. Looking at the 0z verification; at D8 is is an easy winner, but by D10 only CFS is worse, and it has verification of 0.1 on a couple of occasions. Of course the models are experiencing uncertainty, but ECM should still be top dog. However it has been apparent for a while when these setups are predicted it loses the plot more than the competition:
The GEFS towards D16 are showing more amplification towards the Pacific as the NPO would suggest, so maybe some interest early Feb, whilst we await the possible SSW.
Any idea when the ENS update on NW ? still showing 06 from yesterday,,,thanks
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21 minutes ago, Yarmy said:
If there is 10% chance of it snowing each day (however it is calculated), then there is 90% chance each day that it won't snow. Therefore the chance that it won't snow at all in the 5 day period is 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9 = 0.59049, i.e. a 59% chance that it won't snow and therefore a 41% chance that it will at least once. But that assumes they are independent events (like the consecutive rolls of a die) and of course that's not true. To calculate the actual chance you need to know the probability that it will snow tomorrow given that it is snowing today and then apply Bayes' Theorem.
Thanks for that Yarmy, so how is the 10% calculated for the ensemble suite and do all the 20 members (is it 20 including the control and op) have an equal weighting ?
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44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Each member is a different percentage chance - 5%
so you would have a 10% chance of snow on each day. Can't see how you could accumulate your overall chance to be 50% over five days. You could say that you have a 50% chance of seeing snow on any given day within that five day period - I think but that would assume that each day a different member was predicting snowfall . If the same member predicts snowfall for five days then surely that remains a 5% chance of seeing snowfall at some point In the five days rather than a 25% chance of seeing snow at some point in the five days
i think !
Hmmm, sorry bluearmy.. but If we have a 10% chance on 5 days it should equate to 50% over that period of it snowing on one day of those 5, a bit like rolling a dice 3 times you have a 50% chance of rolling a six regardless of which dice I use, thats why I dont understand how the % chance is calculated,
I take it than the same member has to predict below -5 *50s and precipitation at the same time. Sometimes they add up to more than 100% but it doesnt snow over those 15 days, anyway lets hope the latest NWP shows a higher chance
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I just assumed 2 members showing snowfall that day is 10% ??
Thanks
So did I, but is the actual chance of snowfall for that location actually 10% on that day? or if it showed 5 different days at 10% I would have a 50% of snow in that time frame? so on up to 100%?
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1 hour ago, Ravelin said:
Since it's 'quiet time' between models runs I have a question. On the GFS ensembles graphs, the bit at the bottom "risk of snow" with the pretty snowflakes, just how is it calculated? A percentage of the ensembles at that time who have precipitation at the location and a suitable 850s temp?
Good question Ravelin, I rarely post on here, statistically it doesn't make sense to me. Is it computer generated or added on afterwards? There is also the version of the ENS showing a "snow row"
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While we wait patiently for the snow to arrive here in Europe, a quick glance across the pond shows many resorts in the Canadian Rockies enjoying a snowy week.
Whistler is due to get a further metre of snow between now and Sunday! Lucky them! Here's a couple of webcam pics from today and the forecast for the week:
Whistler Tues 10Nov15.jpg Whistler2 Tues 10Nov15.jpg Whistler Forecast.jpgHi B.W. Great pics
Most of the snow will be rain at the base, top of the solar coaster 4000ft up from the base
that said hope we get some action in the alps....before xmas!
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I thought a few days ago it would be good if we had a weather station map that listed all known weather stations from the official Met Office stations to all known personal weather stations. I've used the sites SkyLinkWeather and Wunderground because they both have a great list of weather stations. I've just finished Scotland and the map has about 300 weather stations listed on it. I thought this may be a useful tool for everyone to use who just wants to check out their local weather or when severe weather arrives we can quickly find weather stations in a certain area and view their data.
A screenshot of the map,
When the map loads up just zoom and click on a marker. A box should appear with a photo and a link. The link will take you to the page where you can view the data. On SkyLinkWeather go into User Settings if you want to change the units to for example mph. On Wunderground on the top right corner there's a settings button in there you can change the units as well.
Map Link https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zm18Nhm68BHc.kYeDz-ei4HOY
Hope you all find it useful I'm thinking about doing the rest of the UK next would be good to hear feedback first.
Brilliant thanks
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Very light covering but it's sticking at least
Very light snow here, might get a cm ......if it continues
by this time next year!
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The problem on here is you read comments saying there is no sign of anything cold and no snow etc..then you look at the Gfs charts and see snow and cold weather, it's as if north western areas don't exist, don't matter and it's very misleading because some posters are only interested in their own back yards. I always give the north and west a mention, as well as every other corner of the UK, I wish more would do the same to give an overview of the UK weather instead of localised comments.
Well said Frosty, I enjoy reading this thread, the models are showing some chances of some snow over the next several days, so if it is of little interest... go and discuss it in your regional thread!
Maybe some of us have other concerns
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Well not a white Xmas, as expected, but it is a frosty Xmas. Temp was -2.0C when we were dragged downstairs at 7am this morning and still -0.9C right now.
Wont be on much after this as I'll be 2000m up a mountain in France from Saturday. Expecting to see some snow fall when we get there and possibly on Sunday. I'll try to post a photo or two if I can.
Great forecast for the alps 60cm to 80cm ATM have a good time
russell
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Ha! Er, no. Obviously the UKMO-GM is seen fairly rapidly (much quicker than it goes to public websites etc). Anyway, 12z's awaited with usual interest, albeit there's really no particular alarm bells being expressed here re next week's developments. Just a watching brief, but anything noteworthy continues to look a low PROB solution, as others here righly have stressed.
Thanks Ian, so what time lag is there between your access to the NWP and the General public?
Apologies for the tea and biscuits!
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Understood
my apologies