Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

lobbox

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    67

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by lobbox

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lobbox

    If this is not a place to learn then I will leave. My request simply reflects my frustration at posts (not just Mr Browns) that state the obvious (i.e. it could do something) without showing people who have been here a month (an awful lot longer before posting, but I forgive you for your incorrect assumption) without providing evidence to back it up. Science has never meant 'knowing' as you put it. Science has always been about testing theory with practical backup. If all scientists just went off on theory without the requirement to back it up with evidence then we'd still be drilling holes in peoples heads to cure headaches. Ian does generally back his theories up, but tonight he hasn't. Could remains 'could' until someone turns in into 'should' and backs that up. Apologies for being arrogant and rude in your opinion. But hey - as you point out I only have 21 posts so I clearly don't count. (edit - 22 now!)

    OT but your asking a valid question 'vale'. Post count reference was a cheap shot...but what do you expect...

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Indeed. And what's all this slightly combative nonsense appearing in certain posts about supposed "competitors", etc, in the mid/long range forecasts??? It did make me chuckle.

    I mean come on...... it's science discussed on this thread, I hope, not soccer.

    Good, evolving science is about embracing shifting ideas and well-proven outcomes - irrespective of the supposed 'competition'. And if the folks at the likes of NOAA and UKMO can embrace this basic notion and attend symposia together in Exeter (and they do) quite happily without having to wear respective GFS/GM scarves and shout abuse at each other, then that says it all, surely.

    Robust, non-preconceptual science (of ANY discipline) isn't about what you wish for, nor what you wish against.

    'Wishing' is the unique human emotion that distinguishes well-judged scientific analysis from religion and voodoo.

    So let's await the scientific consensus and leave wishful thinking / ill-judged notions of 'competition' on the sidelines..... please? rolleyes.gif

    Lol Ian, surely by now you have realised that most one line posters (about 70% of all the posts) switch their pc off when the footy is on! I think they have some duty bound misguided loyalty that they have to 'know' what happended last night when they get into work in the morning! Seriously good post though, Science is learning and I love that.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    lol that slightly contradicts the winter is over post a few posts ago, and the declaration of Feb being warmest month.

    Don't post often, but some absolutely hilarious posts in here tonight.

    People praying, worshipping, then declaring winter is over on the 30th January on the basis of one model run.

    Thanks to all those posters who provide a measured balanced approach for amateurs like me!

    It would be great to see a dramatic Easterly, and it's definitely not all over yet. One of the formermost models (GFS) is presenting something pretty dramatic as its operational probabilistic scenario and as I understand it is well supported by its Ensembles.

    The ECM is presenting another set of probabilities, tending towards the mild. It could be a mild outlier, I don't think we know yet.

    The UKMO is also bad (for cold lovers) but has seemingly been disregarded by... the UKMO.

    With the human pros at the MO and the GFS apparently in favour of a cold Easterly, it's hardly game over. Of course everyone is excited about the possiblities but it would be great to see everyone keeping an open mind about what could happen. It could be cold or mild - we just cannot tell on the basis of the current charts. Let's not declare winter is over though or that we are "definitely doomed to 3 weeks of blowtorch if UKMO verifies" as that is not terribly helpful for people trying to learn like me.

    have a great evening everyone, here's to the 18Z GFS and I don't think we can assume anything.

    Well said!

    3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Jim Bacon on Look East showed the showers getting well inland - as far west as the M1 later in the night. Now the BBC national forecast is showing this too. But the Met Office still stick with only really coastal areas getting showers... odd. But at the same time the MetOffice has just issued weather warnings for North Yorks, clearly just based on the current radar. Genius. If you compare the 18z GFS precipitation charts for midnight to the current radar you can see the showers have pushed a little further west than implied.

    So it is moving inland, but how much of it holds together as anything other than the odd light flurry by the time it reaches Northants remains to be seen.

    Sarah Keith-Lucas latest national forecast (00:35) shows no inland progression for our (Northants) region. Coastal areas could benefit but overall not looking great here !

    And its fizzling out over coastal regions too... heres looking to next week!

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lobbox

    I'll keep talking to myself then. Those showers are definately working inland into the East Midlands.

    My sausage is bigger and colder than your sausage. In fact the sausage is not far off a record sausage, but not quite, because next door has a record sausage from 1963.

    Noticed that myself, worth a cursory glance now and then....especially whats following behind it.

×
×
  • Create New...