Sunny Leith

Agreed. Thats about the same for here in Embra. Anything else that might look like it has the "potential" ... depressions ... fronts ... leading/edge or back/edge stuff ... thats just a lottery. And about the same odds too.

Simple guide that works pretty well for me most times in working out whats happening now and over the next 12 hours or so. Whats happening now... Look at the sky. High cloud, broken cloud ??? Can I see the horizon ? Whats coming... Look at the radar. Moving in this direction ? Breaking up ? Intensifying ? On that basis, the current situation is another damp squib for most of us in the central/SE locations. I would disregard metoffice timing of events. Just because they say this or that will happen "later" doesn't mean to say they know something we don't. Its more likely they just got the timing and the extent of any precipitaton at location X wrong. I guess what I'm saying is there will be no main event later on today IMO. A "heavy snow" metoffice warning simply carries so many caveats ... "in some areas" ... or "on high ground" that most of the time its an anti-climax for the townies. Surrounded by ocean out there and we end up with snizzle 95% of the time...jeez ! As for streamers (and I stand to be corrected) these are areas of convective activity that follows local geography (Moray Firth, Forth estuary, Cheshire Gap, Thames estuary etc). There may well be some showers after the front passes, but I think thats all they would be ... "scattered showers" rather than "streamers".

What ? Don't you know your geography ? Moors -> Scotland -> Dragon Country -> Edge of world (sheer drop)

Very very light snow in the wind here in Leith. The metoffice forecast for here will be "correct" on a technicailty it seems. Pah ! From my window the Fife coast is getting that smudged hazy look so theres some stuff falling towards there. Looks like the radar is showing a smudge of precipitation has just appeared out of nothing in the last hour or so. Poor effort compared to you luckys beggars up north !

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen, in the lottery that is Scotlands weather Wil it creep to Dundee ? Maybe Will it creep on to Edinburgh and the SE ? Heart says yes, head says no... I don't want to be too hard on the metoffice/BBC but what the heck I will. Its basically about 33% correct at this point. NE Snow ... Yes, they got that right (the easy part) No real snow west of Harthill .. Wrong, as the reports from Kilmarnock indicates SE Snow ... no, quite wrong . Unless that splodge makes it intact down the country (that'd be a first) Most on here would have made a better 12-18 hour forecast at teatime yesterday than Gail did on the BBC.

I think that the metoffice/BBC are not for the first time, sticking with a forecast thats already gone wrong. This for SW Scotland Lothian and the Borders, issued this afternoon and the line they've stuck with subsequently. Headline: Sleet and snow overnight, slowly clearing during Thursday. This Evening and Tonight: A frosty evening in the south, then the sleet and snow in the Central Belt will move south, giving moderate falls across the Borders, elsewhere mainly slight. Moderate northeast winds. Minimum temperature -1 °C. Thursday: Cloudy for much of the time with further outbreaks of snow, heavy over parts of the Borders but light and patchy elsewhere. Turning dry, clear and frosty by evening, Maximum temperature 2 °C. Only problem is that the sleet and snow in the central belt was patchy and miniscule... its already gone... and theres none of that left to move south. Yes, its belting down in the far NE but it goes against all experience that this essentially convective activity will migrate over 150 miles of mountains and hills to deliver anything. Good luck to the NE but I'll eat the hat of anyones choice if it makes its way as far south as they're suggesting. I can't think of anytime that I've seen that happen. You might as well say an easterly will deliver snow to Oban...same idea and just as unlikely.

To be honest, forecasting snow for the north with these likely northerly synoptics is a safe bet for the metoffice. Where they get it wrong time and time again is when they predict anything out of this south of Perth, Stirling etc. A few lucky places might get something filtering through during the night ... but the big white snow blob positioned over Edinburgh and the SE for the early hours struck me as most unlikely.

Absolutely. They need to do a bit more looking out the window to see whats actually going on as opposed to what theoretically might occur if this or that happens. Immediate threat looks to be on the west side of the country. How could she not mention that from a BBC studio in Glasgow ? And after that, yes OK, the north-east, Tayside/Aberdeenshire etc . But I just don't see anything else happening later on for anyone else.

Have to say I didn't buy that forecast at all for the south-east. At least not based on current synoptics, current radar etc Although they do have access to a lot more data than us... the thing is when they're wrong they tend to stick with being wrong all the way to the bitter end. I just don't see anything in the immediate next 12 hours that will see any eastern areas south of Aberdeenshire/Eastern Tayside getting any snow other than flakes in the wind !

Sorry mate, dismal attempt by me trying to be funny there. Its just seems to have become a catchphrase sine the Channel 4 series of the same name... Anyway, theres no question that 700ft up you're going to catch it from all sides a lot of the time. Yup, its all about "location location location" for East Kilbride.

Location location location ! Congrats

Good for your location LadyPakal, hope you get a worthwhile pile of the white stuff. But south of Stirling, there'll be little snow action for the central belt from any northerly.

All of 50,000 flakes scattered across the surface of the greater Leith area. If I scrunch my eyes up really tight I can just about pretend theres lying snow...but its halting now. The danger with all this "the heavier stuff is coming later" is that it usually just doesn't pan out. One of the great metoffice lies (its what we were told was to happen on Monday night after all). It's always going to be later ... overnight ... the next day ... the next front ... the next depression. Good chance for central belters is that what we wake up to tomorrow is what we've got now. Up north though they probably have a good shout at it by the looks of things, fair play to them.

I'm assuming its snowing on the south side of Fife now. I can see the Fife coast from my window at the top of Leith Walk and it's done a dissapearing act. What happens now is that I wait for it to get over here ... and wait ... and wait ... and wait ... and then kick the cat ! Edit: the cat is spared... very very fine snow in the wind now here at the top of Leith.

True. But I expect that the heavier stuff will also be be grapped by all points north of the central belt. God I want to be proved wrong. Jeez...I've only been posting here for 12 hours and I'm whining already

Again radar showing some degree of break up and lessening in intensity over time. Even as time goes on I'd be surprised to see Embra have any more than flurries over the next 12-18 hours or so. At best I expect to wake up to a couple of millimetres rather than the metoffice projected warning of 2cms. Little or nothing from these setups is the historical norm after all in these parts...

If I have any reservations it's that the intensity of any precipitation (looking at the radar over the last few hours) seems to have declined over time as its staggered southwards. No surprise given its passage over the higher ground but wondering what'll be left as it gets to central Scotland. Oh well beggars can't be choosers...

Thanks for that LadyPakal. Your information is much better and more reliable. Looks like I should chuck this URL in the bin ! http://www.wunderground.com/global/UK.html

Good for you mate Usual contradictory stuff happening at the same time. Head across to the "interior" where one might expect conditions to be worse, and Aviemore is reporting 3c and rain. Go figure ! Seems like whatever is heading south is the usual typically inconsistent incoherent heterogeneous air mass...certainly far from being a big wodge of snow...localised "pot luck" later on perhaps, with the possibility of rain or sleet or snow or just nothing at all.

We're all coming out the woodwork now mate, must be a backlash to the English/Welsh snow Anyway, metoffice warnings coming out now. Crying wolf ? Time will tell. SW Scotland, Lothians, Borders Snow will continue to edge south across all areas during Wednesday afternoon and will persist this evening and overnight. Accumulations of 2 to 5cm are expected and up to 10cm on higher ground. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to 'Traffic Scotland' for further advice on road conditions. Issued at: 1015 Wed 4 Feb

There are undoubtedly good technical reasons why similar setups to today haven't delivered in the past in the central belt/major cities. But on the wider Scottish picture its infuriating that even with cold setups like this...that at this latitude, surrounded by moisture on all sides, and with mostly moderate sized mountains (hardly alpine), we can barely ever muster a generalised snowfall here. Its beyond belief sometimes However as usual I'll put 30 odd years of weather watching on the backburner and revert to an element of hopecasting for all areas south of Perth/Stirling as the day progresses. We need a Scottish Whiners corner, I'd be in there 24 x 7

I think you're understating it Blizzard. In fact anything that moves the risk north of the M25 is a "downgrade" Actually they are of course kindred spirits. And I daresay I'd view it the same way if "my snow" got shoved 20 miles away to Linlithgow or somesuch

We should indeed Hiya. No disrespect to my Southern friends but "Will it snow in Welwyn Garden City" just wasn't doing it for me I'm afraid. Good to see so many local weather-heids on this thread.

Something that I noticed yesterday when scanning around various Scottish sites.... Oban was not surprisingly one of the warmest spots. But I noticed an observation there from sometime in the afternoon I think ... Oban reported a snow shower at 8c and 53% humidity. Technically possible to have snow at that temp and with such low humidity I guess...but can anyone from these parts confirm if that actually happened or was it just a dodgy report ?

Yes indeedy Got to be measured at what ... 4 or 5 feet in a screen above the ground I'm sure (?) I used to keep my own temperature records when I first got the weather-bug, all my (ahem) "observations" though were taken from a council-flat balcony about 80 feet above the ground. Not exactly "standard" but in the big bad cold spells of the 70s and 80s still saw some bone-chattering -8, -9c readings. Good to see some decent low-values again this winter. And hope your analysis for tomorrow pays off BTW !