CardiffStorm
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Posts posted by CardiffStorm
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Well, as I understand it, the Met Office's 2 and 3-day forecast accuracy is as good as anyone else's and better than most.
It's not all about technical and accuracy though - if they're charging too much for it then they won't win the bid, which they didn't.
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What happened to "If it ain't broke, don't fix it", I wonder?
Depends what you mean by 'broke'.
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As somebody who provides bids in to Government I hope I can shed a little bit of light on why the Met Office have not been chosen. While I don't know the BBC's bid process I imagine it will be fairly similar.
The BBC will probably have gathered details of as many potential vendors as possible through the publication of a Request for Information (RFI). The majority of these will then have been asked to complete a Pre-Qualifying Quesitonnaire (PQQ) which provides some more details to the BBC as to what the vendors generally offer and what their commercial side is looking like.
So at this point the BBC will have a short(er) list of potential vendors to which they will have issued an Invitation to Tendor (ITT) - this is essentially the vendors full proposal. This often comes in two parts; one technical and one commercial. The ITT is basically an exam with set questions having to be answered in a maximum number of words.
Each of these will be independently marked by both a technical team and commercial team. Given that Government and the BBC work on 'Value for Money' there will be a technical to commercial weighting of say 70:30 meaning 30% of the marks are for cost and other commercial factors. This weighting would differ depending on the contract and flexibility in budgets etc. Given the BBC are a bit strapped for cash this weighting could be more on the commercial side.
Once each ITT has been marked a Preferred Bidder will be selected and they will go in to further negotiation with the BBC. Time will be given for all potential vendors to challenge the results.
So why didn't the Met Office win? - they were simply charging too much for the services they were offering compared to other vendors. So it's not just that the BBC will have chosen the cheapest option as the cheapest would likely score very low on technical. You have to get the technical:commercial balance right in your proposal.
Again, this is the process used by most Government departments and may not be exactly the same as that used by the BBC but I imagine it will be quite similar.
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Has any snow come from the showers in SW Wales this evening? I've seen a few posts about some brief snow but just wondering if there's been anything constant/decent.
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A local newspaper have contacted me with interest in one of my recent flooding pictures.
I'm just wondering if anybody has any experience in selling photos - I'm not sure about price and the different licensing types.
Thanks in advance.
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I can't see wind being a massive problem for Wales. There will be strong gusts (around 60mph) on the south coast but we've seen worse before now. Rain could be a problem for SE Wales but this depends on the exact track of the low, it'll be close.
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Line of convection from the M4 near Swindon down in a straight line to Poole. All slowly moving North.
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Do you think we'll have a storm in the Cardiff area?
I wouldn't think so tonight. Fingers crossed for tomorrow though.
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Storms with thunder and lightning just starting to initiate around the Salisbury area. This is the beginnning of the evenings entertainment I think.
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The sun is starting to come through the low clouds now here in Cardiff. Can start to feel the temperature rising and more importantly the humidity too. Cardiff Airport is giving a humidity of around 80% at the moment.
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I really like it. It's modern and clean.
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Is the snow settling anywhere?
Here in Cardiff it's not settling at all.
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That's what I mean.. I can see all the potential for the weekend! It's just no idea what some forecasts are seeing in tonight?! Ahaha
UKASF and ESTOFEX going for something minor for N Ireland and W Scotland on Friday but nothing tonight.
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Going off what some weather forecasts are saying, southwest coastal areas are in for 'a few flashes and rumbles' overnight ?? I can't see any signs of thundery potential until tomorrow at least..
I'd say something possible Saturday or Sunday but not seeing much tonight or tomorrow.
Although saying that, UKASF just released a 'Slight' for N Ireland and W Scotland for Friday >> http://www.ukasf.co....m-forecasts/227
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I agree with Yarmy that the Physics is understood but getting the initial values is the problem.
Take a look at CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), it's used to model how aircraft and other vehicles move through the air and the physics there is very well understood. The air movements over aircraft can be perfectly modelled and that's because they input good quality data.
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Looks pretty miserable across South Wales tomorrow (Friday). The band of rain looks rather heavy as it passes over region with winds picking up too - guests maybe around 25mph.
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Has anybody had a look at the charts for Sunday? I think there's the possibility of a little something across the southern half of England and Wales during the early afternoon. Chance of some hail and perhaps even a little T&L?
Also, good to see this thread back.
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Congratulations to all the Netweather team on such a great achievement. It proves that if you put the effort it you can be successful.
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The front has most definitely stalled so I'd be expecting snow for SE Wales for at least the next 2 hours, perhaps longer.
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I've set my alarm for 4am! Hopefully will have started by then!
I'm pretty sure it will have started by 4am. I'm waiting until about 7am, by which time there should be a decent covering.
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Something constantly referred to on here today is disappointment at "met office forceasts" for a certain area being tweaked slightly to show sleet, cloud, light snow not heavy, etc. As far as I'm aware (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong) you're refering to auto-generated forecast graphics on the Meto or BBC websites / apps. These are based on unmodified raw data and as such should be ignored when it comes to details such as people are fretting about. The same goes for NW area/postcode forecasts or area/postcode forecasts from other websites. Stick to what the TV, radio and official wanrings are saying.
Completely agree.
Really should have a sleep then wake up later but i'm scared i'll miss something haha! any chance of the buses running in the morning? bearing in mind i live on a slight hill, going to wake up earlier anyway to check out the situation.
Cardiff Bus will be updating their website here: http://www.cardiffbus.com/english/newsarticle.shtml?articleid=2130
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looking at rain today theres showers pepping up by tenby? and i dont know if its the main band behind but it doesnt look like taking long to hit south wales? im getting confused still dont understand everything sorry for the confusion
That's not the main band of precipitation. There's more to come that isn't in range of the radar yet. Have a look at sat24.com and you should be able to see the rest on satellite.
@DeepSnow got there before me lol
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Long time lurker here, excitement levels gone to def-con 4 so felt I had to post!
What sort of time do you guys reckon the snow will hit us here in the valleys , the red zone valleys !! Lol
It'll hit the valleys around 6-9am.
Edit: Probably actually a bit earlier than 6am, perhaps 3am.
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Strange thing is its dead silent outside wind wise, do you think the sudden wind gush will be a rapid event.
As the front moves closer the wind will pick up. A low pressure centre also forms over the country tomorrow which will increase the wind speed further.
Whats the chances of snow for North Wales? Just checked the forecast and there is absolutely none forecast!!
I wouldn't expect a huge amount for Colwyn Bay, just because it's on the coast. The further inland you get the higher chance of decent snowfall.
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
How are people feeling about the chance of thunderstorms across Wales today? I think we've got a good chance of some hefty storms late afternoon/early evening.