Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024

[matty40s]

Although officially not starting until June 1st, quite obviously the Atlantic now running at a record high temperature and lots of moisture over Africa we could well see a very early start.

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

Well, the list of names is here...

...and a good season forecast here...

It would not surprise me at all if we had a pre-June 1st event, the Atlantic temps are silly.

[Lauren]

Does anyone know any figures as to how often the Hurricane season prediction is wrong? Not as in numbers but say they say it will be below average and it ends up being above?

Edited May 22, 2024 by Lauren

[Metwatch]

On 20/05/2024 at 19:00, matty40s said:

It would not surprise me at all if we had a pre-June 1st event, the Atlantic temps are silly.

i'd say quite unlikely now

[matty40s]

 Lauren Does anyone know any figures as to how often the Hurricane season prediction is wrong? Not as in numbers but say they say it will be below average and it ends up being above?

 

Well, the simple answer is ...look at my predictions in the named storms prediction other thread and it will be something other than that!!

 

Although...

 

[matty40s]

More spice..

 

[moochops]

18 hours ago, matty40s said:

More spice..

It could be a very active season for sure.

Just read this article - 

What you need to know about record-breaking heat in the Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections

YALECLIMATECONNECTIONS.ORG

---

The ocean heat could fuel an unusually active hurricane season.

I've been reading the linked blog since 2005 when it used to be on the wunderground site.  It actually made me go and look in the archives for August 2005 and Katrina.  I remember Dr Jeff Masters warning almost 3 days in advance that New Orleans should evacuate.  Here's the blog from August 27th 2005 - around 70 hours before Katrina made her landfall in New Orleans.  Still gives me chills...........

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/katrinacostliest-hurricane-ever.html

 

Edited May 23, 2024 by moochops
forgot to add link to the August 2005 blog

[Derecho]

One thing that could scupper a very active season (besides El Nino which we know has gone) is the potential for Saharan dust. 2013 also didn't have an El Nino but was a really quiet season despite high SSTs. Saharan dust can really compromise hurricane formation.

Other then that there is a strong relationship between tropical North Atlantic SSTs and Accumulated Cyclone Energy from Atlantic hurricanes.

So for @Lauren , I think the 2013 season was the last time there was a bust.

Edited May 23, 2024 by Derecho

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Most of my focus is on the Indian Ocean, Bay Of Bengal and the Southwest + Western Pacific currently with ongoing and developing tropical developments courtesy of recent and current MJO progression however I've began looking at the Atlantic, there's a small cyclonic system developing currently as discussed at the end of this post 

 

Given current Sea Surface Temperatures in the area of this cyclones formation it could briefly obtain some tropical characteristics 

It's worthy of discussion from the National Hurricane Center

 

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

"ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Atlantic. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this system roughly halfway between Bermuda and Hispaniola on Friday. Although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent."

The next significant opportunity for potential tropical development is currently likely heading through June week 1, currently this looks most probable to be via a developing Kelvin Wave / Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave with the main MJO activities continuing to persist toward the Western Pacific / The Maritimes.

Here we can see the CFS showing this developing Kelvin Wave - Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave with a focal area from the Caribbean through the Bahamas 

Looking at the weekly precipitation anomaly during June Week 1 this lines up with this activity as expected.

And the pressure anomaly confirms this area being favourable for cyclonic development

GEFS very similar to the CFS

GEM Ensemble slightly different with the Kelvin Wave development with a slightly different orientation but still favourable for cyclonic development 

Very much to be shown as an example,but the latest GFS gives an idea.

Thanks for reading. KW

[karyo]

We now have a complete set of forecasts for an  above average season!

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/noaa-2024-hurricane-season-forecast-warns-of-more-storms-than-ever-heres-why/ar-BB1mVkiz?ocid=BingNewsSerp

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[karyo]

Fast warming through the month of May in GOM, Caribbean and Atlantic basin. particularly noteworthy is the change in the Bahamas and east of Florida where SSTs went from slightly below average to well above average in just a few weeks.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Detailed discussion as we progress through June

 

 

[matty40s]

Already causing problems in Florida...

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

....and another possible..

Our favourite Hurricane Chaser..

 

Edited June 12, 2024 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[Buzz]

Can anyone remember the name of the YouTube channel which used to do a regular and very useful analysis of the predicted tropical storms?

[matty40s]

 

[Buzz]

Have now found the YouTube channel I was asking about, it's Tropical Tidbits.

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited June 19, 2024 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

Edited June 26, 2024 by matty40s