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Tropical Depression Emilia


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Another Tropical Depression has formed in the eastern Pacific...

    000

    WTPZ41 KNHC 211442

    TCDEP1

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006

    800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006

    THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE

    PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH

    DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE

    IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AND THE CENTER IS

    LOCATED TO THE EAST THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

    GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL

    STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.

    THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS.

    THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS

    INDICATED FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN

    FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE

    NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. BOTH ECMWF AND THE GFDL HAVE A MORE

    AGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST

    MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.1N 103.1W 25 KT

    12HR VT 22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W 30 KT

    24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W 35 KT

    36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W 35 KT

    48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W 40 KT

    72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 45 KT

    96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 45 KT

    120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT

    As you can see, a gradual strengthening is forecast with sustained windspeeds reaching 50mph in 72 hours before no further strengthening, i believe that the GFS has the track right on this one and given that Hurricane Daniel exploded over the warm waters of the East Pacific, and the fact that shear will lessen, i am forecasting a category 1 hurricane in 72 hours peaking as a weak category 3 hurricane in around 120 hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    This system is now Tropical Storm Emilia, could a moderator change the thread title please...

    000

    WTPZ41 KNHC 220832

    TCDEP1

    TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006

    200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006

    INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION

    HAS DEVELOPED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH

    CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85C. WHILE A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0232Z SHOWS THAT

    THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE

    NOW 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON

    THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM

    EMILIA WITH 35-KT WINDS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6. LARGE-SCALE MODEL

    ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT EMILIA IS ON THE

    SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER

    NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE

    CALLS FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

    THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE

    GFS...WHICH TURNS EMILIA MORE WESTWARD AND IS THE LEFT OUTLIER OF

    THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE

    CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY

    NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE

    PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THE GFS

    SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

    ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT EMILIA

    IS UNDER 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT

    LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE LARGE-SCALE

    MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 3

    DAYS...WHICH IF CORRECT SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE

    GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO PEAK AT 50 KT IN 48 HR...WHILE THE

    SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE

    INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST UNDER

    HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA

    SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

    LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.8N 104.0W 35 KT

    12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 104.9W 40 KT

    24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 106.4W 45 KT

    36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT

    48HR VT 24/0600Z 17.7N 109.4W 55 KT

    72HR VT 25/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W 60 KT

    96HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT

    120HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 50 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER BEVEN

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    sm20060723.1430.goes11.x.vis1km_high.06EEMILIA.55kts-994mb-179N-1070W.100pc.jpg

    000

    WTPZ41 KNHC 231440

    TCDEP1

    TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006

    800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

    CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH

    CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS

    BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO

    55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A

    DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF

    T3.6/57 KT.

    THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD

    MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON

    LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO

    UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

    AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO

    WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL

    DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW

    ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A

    GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE MAJORITY OF

    THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE

    EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA

    QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER

    UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO

    THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

    NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND

    AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS

    EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN.

    IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN

    ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A

    PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE

    RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH

    WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W 55 KT

    12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT

    24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W 75 KT

    36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W 80 KT

    48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W 80 KT

    72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W 55 KT

    96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W 35 KT...DISSIPATING

    120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    000

    WTPZ41 KNHC 232026

    TCDEP1

    TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006

    200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

    CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IMPROVE. T-NUMBERS

    FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT...AND A 3-HR

    AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T3.7/59 KT. GIVEN THE BANDING EYE

    FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE

    SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED

    SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY TREND AND PROBABLY DUE

    TO THE INNER CORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE MID- TO

    UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

    AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN

    PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY

    STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD

    FORCE EMILIA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK

    THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH

    BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS

    HAVING MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO THE MAIN MODEL

    GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION

    OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

    CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE

    CIRCULATION CENTER...AND AN EYE MAY BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL

    IMAGERY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND

    CONTINUES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND

    BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS

    EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR

    ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID

    INTENSIFICATION ENSUE SHORTLY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE

    OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12H TO 24 H FORECAST

    PERIODS. BY 48 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C

    SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING TREND.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 107.8W 60 KT

    12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W 70 KT

    24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 85 KT

    36HR VT 25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W 85 KT

    48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W 70 KT

    72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W 40 KT...DISSIPATING

    96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

    120HR VT 28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

    $$

    FORECASTER STEWART

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