The century of drought

[Brrr]

Scary article in the Independent :o - Better start digging a few wells -

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1786829.ece

[Gray-Wolf]

We seem to be coming full circle. Are we due an 80's retro month or something? It is a shame that the people in power through that decade didn't drown out the oil funded pleadings and start us on a greener path but hey, can't bleat over spilt milk. Still chilling to see Ozone, sub-saharan drought and ice loss being brought to our collective attentions again.

[Brrr]

We seem to be coming full circle. Are we due an 80's retro month or something? It is a shame that the people in power through that decade didn't drown out the oil funded pleadings and start us on a greener path but hey, can't bleat over spilt milk. Still chilling to see Ozone, sub-saharan drought and ice loss being brought to our collective attentions again.

It's very annoying isn't it GW..... like we didn't notice BEFORE now!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

I dont believe that the world will be 2 thirds desrt in 100 years(approx) time

a) What is the reliability?

The trend they have used is unrealistic and trend can never be trusted

c) there could have been an iceage by then

d) we have just had a record breaking summer but we also had a cold winter (is this a pattern)

e) (if GW related to humans is true) then new energy saving devices will be out reducing the carbon emmissions by more than 50%!!!

I dont believe in any of what the Independant say (or should i say the met's climate prediction???)...

SNOW-MAN2006

[parmenides3]

I dont believe that the world will be 2 thirds desrt in 100 years(approx) time

a) What is the reliability?

The trend they have used is unrealistic and trend can never be trusted

c) there could have been an iceage by then

d) we have just had a record breaking summer but we also had a cold winter (is this a pattern)

e) (if GW related to humans is true) then new energy saving devices will be out reducing the carbon emmissions by more than 50%!!!

I dont believe in any of what the Independant say (or should i say the met's climate prediction???)...

SNOW-MAN2006

No, it's the Indy, not the Met. They ran one scenario, on one model, once, with a mid-high emissions scenario (very much a 'what if?' run), and it showed the PDSI (drought index) going up a lot; shouldn't really be too much of a surprise. What is irritating is the way the newspaper turns this, perfectly normal, bit of climate modelling, offering up a hypothetical if...then conclusion, into a 'will be'. Other than that, I can't agree with any of the five reasons you give why it won't happen, but that's probably just me.

:)P

[SNOW-MAN2006]

No, it's the Indy, not the Met. They ran one scenario, on one model, once, with a mid-high emissions scenario (very much a 'what if?' run), and it showed the PDSI (drought index) going up a lot; shouldn't really be too much of a surprise. What is irritating is the way the newspaper turns this, perfectly normal, bit of climate modelling, offering up a hypothetical if...then conclusion, into a 'will be'. Other than that, I can't agree with any of the five reasons you give why it won't happen, but that's probably just me.

:)P

a)the reliability of the forecast will reflect the chances of it happening

b)common sense should be used in forecasting these models

c)there could be an iceage not a drought

d) patterns may devlop (nad) making eastern europe have a bigger effect on our climate

e)new energy saving devices will be out by 2100 which will reduce carbon emmissions (what the polluters do)and could slow down the rate of climate change ( a point i dont believe in personally),

hopefully i have been able tom explain my points more clearly to you;

SNOW-MAN2006

[parmenides3]

a)the reliability of the forecast will reflect the chances of it happening

b)common sense should be used in forecasting these models

c)there could be an iceage not a drought

d) patterns may devlop (nad) making eastern europe have a bigger effect on our climate

e)new energy saving devices will be out by 2100 which will reduce carbon emmissions (what the polluters do)and could slow down the rate of climate change ( a point i dont believe in personally),

hopefully i have been able tom explain my points more clearly to you;

SNOW-MAN2006

Thanks, S-M. My reply:

a. The GCMs at Hadley are unbelievably sophisticated and have been tried, tested and improved for years now. They are recognised internationally as being 'good' models. But, as with all other things, what you get out depends on what you put in. If you put in a gradual warming for 100 years of >2C, then it really shouldn't surprise anyone that you get 'more drought' out the other end.

b. Common sense is always used in using the models, but one-off runs tend to be instigated, or commissioned, by outside agencies and the modellers do the maths and input the requred data. I know what you mean, though, but here, the amount of calculation required to come to any scientific conclusion is so vast that no human could ever hope to do it; in the end, the GCMs are what we've got.

c. How long does it take for an ice age to start? What existing mechanism is there in our climate which would initiate such a process? Is an ice age, in a warming world, a more likely scenario than a drought? Simply put, however much you might wish it, no it won't.

d. Most of Europe is warming as fast or faster than the UK. I think we'd need an Arctic influence of some magnitude to bring temps down, even to pre-1980's levels.

e. Here, in the developed world, I have little doubt that we will find ways to help make the situation less bad. Overall, globally, even though amelioration is still possible, I don't see it happening :blink:

Hope that explains why I don't agree.

:)P

[Brrr]

Well, we can all argue academically till' we're blue in the face, but I'm sorry, when I hear that some scientist who is studying the whole affair 'can't sleep at night' because he's so afraid of what's to come.... I get worried! (and sorry, I cannot remember which eminent scientist it was......)

Now I'm off to book a winter holiday in the snow, before either there is none, or there's too much of it :blink:

[parmenides3]

Well, we can all argue academically till' we're blue in the face, but I'm sorry, when I hear that some scientist who is studying the whole affair 'can't sleep at night' because he's so afraid of what's to come.... I get worried! (and sorry, I cannot remember which eminent scientist it was......)

Now I'm off to book a winter holiday in the snow, before either there is none, or there's too much of it

Sorry, Belinda; I was trying to make it easy to read. Get carried away. :blink: I don't like the article much; I have no problem with the science, so long as we remember it isn't a prediction, it's a model outcome. Is it going to get hotter? I've just found some of the material for the IPCC AR4 & it doesn't paint a very rosy picture... :(P

Enjoy the snow.

:)P

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Thanks, S-M. My reply:

a. The GCMs at Hadley are unbelievably sophisticated and have been tried, tested and improved for years now. They are recognised internationally as being 'good' models. But, as with all other things, what you get out depends on what you put in. If you put in a gradual warming for 100 years of >2C, then it really shouldn't surprise anyone that you get 'more drought' out the other end.

b. Common sense is always used in using the models, but one-off runs tend to be instigated, or commissioned, by outside agencies and the modellers do the maths and input the requred data. I know what you mean, though, but here, the amount of calculation required to come to any scientific conclusion is so vast that no human could ever hope to do it; in the end, the GCMs are what we've got.

c. How long does it take for an ice age to start? What existing mechanism is there in our climate which would initiate such a process? Is an ice age, in a warming world, a more likely scenario than a drought? Simply put, however much you might wish it, no it won't.

d. Most of Europe is warming as fast or faster than the UK. I think we'd need an Arctic influence of some magnitude to bring temps down, even to pre-1980's levels.

e. Here, in the developed world, I have little doubt that we will find ways to help make the situation less bad. Overall, globally, even though amelioration is still possible, I don't see it happening

Hope that explains why I don't agree.

:)P

well here is my view on your views

a) good models??? sorry but what model do we have that can determine the weather in 100 years i would like to see 3 days forecast accurately now

b)nothing really to disagree with

c) Well.. the day after tommorrow... I know it will take a while for an iceage to start but there could be flooding aswell and that doesnt take a long time to happen

d) Russia hada very cold winter last winter just like us and greece was very cold (pattern developing possibly of eastern influence (warm summers and cold winters))

e) You arnt very positive

hope this has cleared up why i agree that a drought isnt going to happen

:blink:

SNOW-MAN2006

[parmenides3]

well here is my view on your views

a) good models??? sorry but what model do we have that can determine the weather in 100 years i would like to see 3 days forecast accurately now

b)nothing really to disagree with

c) Well.. the day after tommorrow... I know it will take a while for an iceage to start but there could be flooding aswell and that doesnt take a long time to happen

d) Russia hada very cold winter last winter just like us and greece was very cold (pattern developing possibly of eastern influence (warm summers and cold winters))

e) You arnt very positive

hope this has cleared up why i agree that a drought isnt going to happen

SNOW-MAN2006

My answer to your answer to my answer... :blink:

a. climate and weather are not the same. Weather models can't predict perfectly; explained by chaos theory; Climate models do not have the same constraint. It still is projection and not prediction, it is still uncertain, but not because we can't forecast the weather. Nothing is determined; you expect, or imagine, too much of the models; but likely outcomes can, meaningfully, be created.

b. Good.

c. Flooding I'd give a very good chance of coming along sooner than is comfortable; but you are changing the goalposts a little!

Given what I posted on the other thread, some UK cooling could also be possible, but that would be against a background of continuing warming.

d. Some have cold, some have mild. For us to get wind from Siberia is, I suppose, possible, but I,m not the person to ask on this.

e. No, I'm not. I try to be. I'm an optimist, honest. But I do have a chest infection at the moment. I'd love to be wrong on this one.

:)P

[Mr Sleet]

Scary article in the Independent B) - Better start digging a few wells -

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1786829.ece

Scary .........sells newspapers ............enough said. Such a load of c**p.

Edited October 5, 2006 by Mr Sleet

[Angel15]

Scary .........sells newspapers ............enough said. Such a load of c**p.

Is this before or after bird flu kills us all?

[Mr Sleet]

Is this before or after bird flu kills us all?

Precisely Angel B)

[parmenides3]

Precisely Angel B)

May I presume that your disingenuity is insincere, Mr. S.?

:)P

[Essan]

Makes you realise how precarious the world's climate is:

If it gets warmer deserts become more common

If it gets colder deserts become more common

Unless of course someone's gotten summat wrong here. Because until now it used to be:

If it gets warmer, deserts become less common

If it gets colder, deserts become more common

B)

[parmenides3]

Makes you realise how precarious the world's climate is:

If it gets warmer deserts become more common

If it gets colder deserts become more common

Unless of course someone's gotten summat wrong here. Because until now it used to be:

If it gets warmer, deserts become less common

If it gets colder, deserts become more common

B)

Bad news, I'm afraid, Andy:

Wang, G.L., 2005: Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4. Climate Dynamics, 25, 739-753, 10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9.

This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of fifteen global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carry-over effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the US Southwest, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the JJA season and the Asian monsoon region in the DJF season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there are considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.

:o P

[Mr Sleet]

Makes you realise how precarious the world's climate is:

If it gets warmer deserts become more common

If it gets colder deserts become more common

Unless of course someone's gotten summat wrong here. Because until now it used to be:

If it gets warmer, deserts become less common

If it gets colder, deserts become more common

It also used to be " a warmer world is a wetter world ".