Are we still capable of getting a <1c CET month?

[Stratos Ferric]

I wonder how this July would look on SF's threshold chart

It's not a straightforward comparison for a number of reasons. First up, winter has warmed more than summer, so to get back to previous low points requires a larger correction. A simple application would be to say that this July was as cold as any since 1993. On that basis a cold winter would be something like 1995/6, in the range 2-3C in its coldest month, which, coincidentally, happens to align with what I would reckon to be the current baseline for a winter month; I may even have said the same further up. Even so, to get that low, would require a relative correction that would be the equivalent of a 1962/3 or 1946/7 in its time. The other factor I'd ponder on is the recent tendency for the coldest (relative) part of winter to fall late in the season, beyond the general thermal nadir by 4-6 weeks; a critical degree or so. Thus we end up with something like March 2006, colder, relatively, than this June, but still far from being a desperately cold winter month.

[Mr Sleet]

I wonder how this July would look on SF's threshold chart

Presumably we should take SF's further " hunches" with a pinch of salt. ROTFLMAO :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Personally, having checked the recent stats, I think of 1-23 March 2006 (about 3C below the 1971-2000 average, 2.5C below 1961-90) as the monthly baseline, and winter 1995/96 (1.5 below 1971-2000 average, 1C below 1961-90) as the winter baseline. This is, of course, taking into account changes in atmospheric circulation patterns- the baselines would otherwise be a couple of degrees lower.

It was rather strange last 'winter' when places like Abingdon were getting heavy snowfalls while up in Aberdeen (traditionally Britain's snowiest city, as documented on another thread) it generally wasn't cold enough. On 25 November 2005, places like St Mawgan and Exeter had snow while in the meantime sleet fell at Aberdeen. Whatever, when the 'right' synoptics occur it can still snow, which is the main thing.

[Stratos Ferric]

Presumably we should take SF's further " hunches" with a pinch of salt. ROTFLMAO

Did I miss something?