Typhoon Krosa

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Krosa has formed to the east of the Phillipines. This image shows the typhoon well, with Lekima to the left of the image. Looks like something may be forming to the right of the image too- certainly active times in the West Pacific!

Typhoon Krosa, as you can see, has a very large eye and it's outer rainbands are effecting parts of the Phillipines giving heavy rains there. After an erratic motion, Krosa is forecasted to push on a northwestward track, taking it away from the Phillipines towards Taiwan. If that motion were to continue then Taiwan and China could end up with a hefty Typhoon to deal with by the end of this week as conditions are favourable for strengthening and indeed rapid intensification could occur as outflow is good, shear is low and sea temps are plenty warm. I wouldn't be surprised if Krosa became a super typhoon over the next few days as it has a good amount of time over water as any landfall is some way off currently.

So, another to watch as Lekima nears landfall as a minimal typhoon- this looks like the opposite, it could become very powerful as it approaches Taiwan over the coming days. As always, there could be track changes over the coming days so Krosa will need to be watched.

[mettalfabrik]

here are the two latest warnings from the japanese met. off, for typhoon krosa

WTJP22 RJTD 021200

WARNING 021200.

WARNING VALID 031200.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 0715 KROSA (0715) 990 HPA

AT 16.8N 131.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 18.0N 129.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 20.3N 127.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 22.3N 126.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WTJP32 RJTD 021500

WARNING 021500.

WARNING VALID 031500.

STORM WARNING.

TROPICAL STORM 0715 KROSA (0715) 990 HPA

AT 16.9N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 18.3N 129.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[mettalfabrik]

Krosa has been upgraded by the japanese met agency to severe tropical storm since my last post at 1800 today

WTJP22 RJTD 021800

WARNING 021800.

WARNING VALID 031800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0715 KROSA (0715) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM

985 HPA

AT 16.9N 130.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 18.8N 129.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 21.3N 127.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 23.3N 126.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[mettalfabrik]

this one is really getting going now

WTJP32 RJTD 031500

WARNING 031500.

WARNING VALID 041500.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 0715 KROSA (0715) 955 HPA

AT 18.0N 129.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 20.9N 126.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Somerset Squall]

Certainly is Blackdown. And conditions are favourable for more intensification so this is likley to become very powerful- could even become a super typhoon. Taiwan and China I would imagine have started preparing for Krosa because it still looks very likely that's where it's heading.

[mettalfabrik]

Krosa looking dangerous

latest warnings

WTJP32 RJTD 041500

WARNING 041500.

WARNING VALID 051500.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 0715 KROSA (0715) 940 HPA

AT 20.1N 126.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300

MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 22.7N 124.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

WWHK82 VHHH 041200

40:1:31:11:01:00

HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING

WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

WARNINGS

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER LUZON STRAIT AND SEAS EAST OF

TAIWAN

STORM FORCE WIND OVER SEAS EAST OF LUZON

GALES OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN

SYNOPSIS (041200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST

TYPHOON KROSA (0715) OVER WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED

TO BRING UP TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO LUZON STRAIT, SEAS

NEAR TAIWAN AND SEAS EAST OF LUZON DURING THE FORECAST

PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT SWELL/HIGH SEAS

SEAS 6 M, 10 M AND 14 M OVER GALES, STORM AND HURRICANE

FORCE WARNING AREAS.

SWELL E TO NE 3-6 M OVER WARNING AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER

OCCASIONAL SQUALLY (SQ) HEAVY SHOWERS (SH) AND

THUNDERSTORMS (TS) OVER LUZON STRAIT, SEAS EAST OF TAIWAN

AND LUZON.

ISOLATED SQ SH AND TS OVER GULF OF TONKIN, STRAIT OF

MALACCA, GULF OF THAILAND AND LATER OVER SEAS NEAR TAIWAN.

SEA FOG/REDUCED VISIBILITY

VISIBILITY 1000 M IN SQ SH AND TS.

[ayu621]

It's strange some days ago. For example, it's sometimes shining and raining simultaneously,

and uncommon strong wind.

Large amount of snails climbed up trees in south Taiwan.

http://eranews.eracom.com.tw/n45/n4366.xml

[mettalfabrik]

hello to you ayu621 and welcome to the forum

[Somerset Squall]

Krosa has become a 130kt super typhoon. It has a small shot a category 5 status but it isn't forecasted to get any stronger. Another super typhoon to add to the list though, and it's still bearing down on Taiwan and China.

[tinybill]

one thing should make the japan motoer race interesting on early on sunday come on hamster!!

[mettalfabrik]

Krosa has become a 130kt super typhoon. It has a small shot a category 5 status but it isn't forecasted to get any stronger. Another super typhoon to add to the list though, and it's still bearing down on Taiwan and China.

think your right SS but 105 knot winds jeez

WTJP22 RJTD 051800

WARNING 051800.

WARNING VALID 061800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TYPHOON WARNING.

TYPHOON 0715 KROSA (0715) 925 HPA

AT 22.8N 124.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.

POSITION GOOD.

MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 24.6N 123.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

925 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 25.5N 121.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 27.2N 121.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 28.5N 122.9E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Somerset Squall]

Hate the way JMA and JTWC always conflict, one says 105kt the other 130kt. Who to believe? It looks like now that after hitting Taiwan and China it could recurve northeastwards and go on to strike Japan (it will be a lot weaker by this point obviously), but still, some serious problems are going to be caused I think. Krosa is a very dangerous high end cat 4 typhoon.

Latest from JTWC (notice they set the wind speed at 130kt for this advisory).

STY 17W (KROSA) HAS MAINTAINED SUPER TYPHOON STATUS OVER THE

PAST 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS

INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF

THE STORM. STY 17W HAS TAKEN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY JOG OVER THE PAST

12 HOURS, AFTER TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE PREVIOUS 06 HOURS.

HOWEVER, THE NET 24 HOUR MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NORTHWEST.

B. THE CURRENT STORM INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0/7.0 FROM PGTW AND 6.5/6.5 FROM

RJTD. A 05/0852Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES POSSIBLE CONCENTRIC

EYEWALLS, WITH A BROAD OUTER EYEWALL BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)

EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND OVER SHANGHAI. ADDITIONALLY, A

PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF STY 17W HAS MERGED WITH THE STR

EAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THE MERGER OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS

INDUCING THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE STORM.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

A. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

B, STY 17W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD

TRACK, WITH THE STORM SKIRTING TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36. THE MODELS ARE IN

GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TO THIS POINT. A TRANSITORY MID-

LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA NEAR TAU 48.

THIS WILL CREATE A BREAK IN THE STR, AND THE TRACK SPEED WILL SLOW,

WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING A POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAU 48

AND 72 WITH THE STORM IN THE RIDGE WEAKNESS. STY 17W HAS MOST LIKELY

REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24,

AND THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN OVER

TAIWAN.

C. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 72. THE GFDN,

JTYM, AND EGRR TRACKERS TAKE THE STORM INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.

THE EGRR FIELDS INDICATE THE STR REMAINS STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE

SYSTEM, DESPITE THE TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER KOREA.

MEANWHILE, EMCWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE STORM WILL MOVE

POLEWARD THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE, STEERED BY THE PERIPHERAL

ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST, AND THEN INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF/NOGAPS SOLUTION. STY 17W WILL

BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT LIES NEAR 30N BETWEEN

TAUS 96 AND 120, AT WHICH TIME THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION

TO EXTRATROPICAL.

FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

NNNN

Edited October 5, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[ayu621]

Thanks for blackdown's greeting. :lol:

Usually the wind of typhoon will not cause badly damage,

but the heavy rain may do it suddenly, even just a minimal typhoon.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/observe/rainfall...06_1000.EZJ.jpg

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5/observe/radar/Dat...0LmsMOS.cgm.gif

[Fraggle]

The first typhoon of 2007 to affect the whole of Taiwan, rather than just the northern half of the island. My girlfriend, who lives in the south, was telling me a couple of hours ago that the winds have been very strong down there causing damage to a lot of their plants and farming equipment, although they did not have any problems with losing electricity as happened on the eastern coast and northern parts of the island. But she was just a bit upset that this typhoon arrived on a Saturday, a non-working day, because they always get a day off work if there's a typhoon due to hit!

Reports of 2 dead so far, plus a couple more missing from a collapsed house in Taipei, and a lot of mudslides and flooding across the island. It's nice to see Taiwan actually getting a bit of coverage on the BBC from the bad weather; many of the news agencies here in the west seem to focus only on China in these situations with the little island off the eastern coast often hardly getting a mention despite almost always being hit first by the tropical storms...

[mettalfabrik]

latest met warning

WTJP22 RJTD 071200

WARNING 071200.

WARNING VALID 081200.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0715 KROSA (0715) 980 HPA

AT 27.2N 120.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 28.3N 120.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 28.9N 121.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 29.6N 124.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1008 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Essan]

Stu Robinson from Ukww flew out to intercept Krosa

An account of his experiences is now on the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7033093.stm

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the link Essan. Very interesting about the loop Krosa made, it really could have been so much worse.