3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 8

[Snowangel-MK]

Snowing again here, 4 out of 5 days this week now!!

Lucky you, we had some sleet this morning but it's far too warm for anything but rain here at the moment.

I was surprised to get a Met O advisory earier this morning for a risk of Snow on Tuesday in MK, I thought next weeks event was a no go now.

Will have to take a peek in the model thread and see what is going on in there

[ickledoozer]

Temps reached the giddy heights of 5.7c today, currently hovering around 4c.

I didnt think it would get this warm!!

[Mrsf16]

Temps reached the giddy heights of 5.7c today, currently hovering around 4c.

I didnt think it would get this warm!!

Top temp 5.7 here too!! Got a long way to drop yet though as currently 4.7c

Sporadic rain showers all day

[80sWeather]

Well when it seemed a damp squib was on the cards for next week the ECM comes up with a stonker,the iberian low comes to the rescue and links up with our low ,then its bitter N/Easterlies and heavy snow.

[shotski]

Well when it seemed a damp squib was on the cards for next week the ECM comes up with a stonker,the iberian low comes to the rescue and links up with our low ,then its bitter N/Easterlies and heavy snow.

Lets hope so mate but I fear the worst for next week, its a long way out but a N'west looks on the cards.

But agree its a good run from ECM 2nite, If we get the others on board I will start to get excited

[Jason T]

Well when it seemed a damp squib was on the cards for next week the ECM comes up with a stonker,the iberian low comes to the rescue and links up with our low ,then its bitter N/Easterlies and heavy snow.

Oh YES. There will be big changes as in UPGRADES through out, Watch tomorrows runs and sunday. Serious SUBS Serious SNOWFALL.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well ECM is very good tonight, and probably the first run for a while which indicates quite severe weather due to several factors, such as MMW (Go to the Stratospheric thread if you dont know what one is), strong blocking, very negative NAO and AO, and then the Iberian low. Fascinating output again as we see some people doubt another cold spell. Cant wait for the runs over the weekend.

[Mrsf16]

Well ECM is very good tonight, and probably the first run for a while which indicates quite severe weather due to several factors, such as MMW (Go to the Stratospheric thread if you dont know what one is), strong blocking, very negative NAO and AO, and then the Iberian low. Fascinating output again as we see some people doubt another cold spell. Cant wait for the runs over the weekend.

Thanks for the update Snowman... what timeframe are we looking at for this potential severe weather?

[80sWeather]

Well ECM is very good tonight, and probably the first run for a while which indicates quite severe weather due to several factors, such as MMW (Go to the Stratospheric thread if you dont know what one is), strong blocking, very negative NAO and AO, and then the Iberian low. Fascinating output again as we see some people doubt another cold spell. Cant wait for the runs over the weekend.

There is some VERY cold air in the latter part of the ECM run,be interesting to see what the 850s are.

Oh YES. There will be big changes as in UPGRADES through out, Watch tomorrows runs and sunday. Serious SUBS Serious SNOWFALL.

If the channel low at t192 shows at t48 then this thread will be the new rampers corner !!!

[Jason T]

There is some VERY cold air in the latter part of the ECM run,be interesting to see what the 850s are.

If the channel low at t192 shows at t48 then this thread will be the new rampers corner !!!

lol, LET THE FUN BEGIN.

[Bolton67]

The fun will begin in T- 7 HOURS when the Taxi picks us up and heads towards Luton Airport.

Edited February 12, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[Snowangel-MK]

The fun will begin in T- 7 HOURS when the Taxi picks us up and heads towards Luton Airport.

At least you won't have the weather to blame for any outbound delays at Luton Airport !

If Robert's weather box predictions (see model chat) come true your inbound return flight may not be able to land

I will believe it when I see it now !

Have a nice holiday, enjoy the sun lucky you, next best thing to snow.

Edited February 12, 2010 by MKsnowangel

[Mrsf16]

The fun will begin in T- 7 HOURS when the Taxi picks us up and heads towards Luton Airport.

Have a great time in the rain sun

[Bolton67]

Thank you Angel..

Worse thing is, because the Jet stream is so far south, Tenerife and the rest of the Canaries isles are getting what we should be getting now , run after run of Rain!! there were landslides in tenerife the other week because so much rain has fell.

Still the temps are 22c - 26c night temps of 17c -19c

Will feel great to feel some warmth !!! and not shivering since mid december!

Have a great time in the rain sun

I'll bring you back some rock...8 inches of it...

[Ben_Cambs]

Thanks for the update Snowman... what timeframe are we looking at for this potential severe weather?

Well its only been picked up by only one model at the moment, it will need the support from the other models soon otherwise its unlikely to happen. If it did pull off, then probably in 9-10 days

[Bolton67]

Well its only been picked up by only one model at the moment, it will need the support from the other models soon otherwise its unlikely to happen. If it did pull off, then probably in 9-10 days

A great post from Len in the model output thread!!! once again we are chasing the cold....

But the cold is not chasing us.

in 2 weeks time it will be March ...the sun is getting higher and we are now on our last legs looking for a cold spell.

No matter what the models say, we are running out of time.

Edited February 12, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[John London]

Well ECM is very good tonight, and probably the first run for a while which indicates quite severe weather due to several factors, such as MMW (Go to the Stratospheric thread if you dont know what one is), strong blocking, very negative NAO and AO, and then the Iberian low. Fascinating output again as we see some people doubt another cold spell. Cant wait for the runs over the weekend.

Sorry to say this Mr. Snowman but you keep using the "severe weather" thingy in your posts. Could you tell us all what real proof you have for these statements, and when exactly we can look forward to seeing them materialise. Just the day and the month will do.

[Bolton67]

Sorry to say this Mr. Snowman but you keep using the "severe weather" thingy in your posts. Could you tell us all what real proof you have for these statements, and when exactly we can look forward to seeing them materialise. Just the day and the month will do.

No need to be hard on him!!

Snowman has done ok this winter!! but as of now it's looking very marginal for us in the 3 counties and EA.

Our normal weather from the Atlantic has not been seen since December...

Just you watch her( the Atlantic) come back with a vengeance !!!

April , May and June will be damp sqiuds

[Mrsf16]

Sorry to say this Mr. Snowman but you keep using the "severe weather" thingy in your posts. Could you tell us all what real proof you have for these statements, and when exactly we can look forward to seeing them materialise. Just the day and the month will do.

Actually Snowman is saying there are INDICATORS of severe weather and has given back up of : "MMW (Go to the Stratospheric thread if you dont know what one is), strong blocking, very negative NAO and AO, and then the Iberian low." The same as all forecasters do, and all the educated members on here, use the models to draw a forcast of what is LIKELY to happen. Weather is NOT an exact science, even when things are supposedly "nailed" one little tweak here or there can change everything. If you look in the model thread there are other members forecasting sever weather also.... and their "proof" is the models...

The models CURRENTLY indicate in 9-10 days that there is the CHANCE of severe weather..... this is deep in FI and there is a lot of development between now and then that can change things for better or worse depending on how you like your weather. Go onto the models thread and ask those guys where their proof is!

[John London]

.Just you watch her( the Atlantic) come back with a vengeance !!!

April , May and June will be damp sqiuds

I went out for a run today and it felt positively balmy here on the east coast, could you tell me why you think spring and summer will be damp and not warm and sunny?

Actually Snowman is saying there are INDICATORS of severe weather and has given back up of : "MMW (Go to the Stratospheric thread if you dont know what one is), strong blocking, very negative NAO and AO, and then the Iberian low." The same as all forecasters do, and all the educated members on here, use the models to draw a forcast of what is LIKELY to happen. Weather is NOT an exact science, even when things are supposedly "nailed" one little tweak here or there can change everything. If you look in the model thread there are other members forecasting sever weather also.... and their "proof" is the models...

The models CURRENTLY indicate in 9-10 days that there is the CHANCE of severe weather..... this is deep in FI and there is a lot of development between now and then that can change things for better or worse depending on how you like your weather. Go onto the models thread and ask those guys where their proof is!

On the model thread there is always severe weather in 9-10 days.

[Mrsf16]

On the model thread there is always severe weather in 9-10 days.

And there are other members who are poo pooing that.... its all about using your judgement of other peoples judgement. Personally I find it fascinating the trends that they are able to read from the charts etc but I am wise enough to know that 9-10 days in weather terms may as well be 9-10 months. It is being called as people see it right now, it may well change on the 00z run... it might not!! Anything outside of T72 is usually unreliable, and even within that timeframe can, and do, still change.

[John London]

And there are other members who are poo pooing that.... its all about using your judgement of other peoples judgement. Personally I find it fascinating the trends that they are able to read from the charts etc but I am wise enough to know that 9-10 days in weather terms may as well be 9-10 months. It is being called as people see it right now, it may well change on the 00z run... it might not!! Anything outside of T72 is usually unreliable, and even within that timeframe can, and do, still change.

Very good post, but sadly I have no time to reply as my lady wants some attention. Goodnight and good weather.

[Bolton67]

I went out for a run today and it felt positively balmy here on the east coast, could you tell me why you think spring and summer will be damp and not warm and sunny?

Well for the last 2 summers ( if you can call them summer) april and may have been better than june and july!!!

Now, old wifes tale....The atlantic has not been seen since December!! and i bet she aint happy, just watch out fom april onwards ....

I bet the jet stream will not be over Iceland in the summer , but further south which for the last 2 summers it has been. the AZORES HIGH'S will not be able to push NW

Cold winter, mild wet summer.

[Jason T]

A great post from Len in the model output thread!!! once again we are chasing the cold....

But the cold is not chasing us.

in 2 weeks time it will be March ...the sun is getting higher and we are now on our last legs looking for a cold spell.

No matter what the models say, we are running out of time.

WE are not RUNNING out of time, (LOOK )Hopefully SOME will back me up THIS is prime time FOR THE UK, the MODELS are hard to confirm as (1) WE ARE AN ISLAND. (2) WE ARE CLOSE TO THE POLES.(3)UPGRADES can and will pop up with out notice.

[mackerel sky]

Had a fifteen minute burst of quite heavy wet snow recently out of nowhere, just like that. Then it was gone.

Tomorrow night might be interesting for a covering. At this range early to midweek snow looks too marginal to call, it will be down to nowcasting.

Quite honestly i'm not bothered what the ECM is showing up at +192hrs. It has been flip flopping in the back end again, so WRITING in CAPS LETTERS that IT WILL be COLD based on ONE run doesn't carry much WEIGHT.

We can look at amazing charts all we want outside of the reliable timeframe. Once these amazing charts find their way into the +96 - +120hr timeframe they have a tendency to get watered down somewhat.