Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Don]

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Dec 2014 to Monday 5 Jan 2015:

 

Most places will be wet and windy on Saturday, with gales or sever gales developing in places. Southeastern areas of England may stay dry at first, however. Cloud and rain are expected to clear erratically eastwards during Sunday leaving sunny spells and scattered blustery showers. These will be most frequent across northern and western Britain, becoming wintry with snow in the north. Temperatures will initially be above average but fall below as the rain clears. It will become colder into the following week with snow showers developing across the north. These may spread southwards at times and it will be frosty with freezing fog patches possible. It may turn more unsettled with time, with wetter and windier conditions returning from the west, and temperatures becoming nearer normal.

 

Pick the bones out of that!

Hmm, seen worse updates for cold weather lovers!

[Daniel*]

Promising update

I assume they are disregarding the ECM? Good news.

[Hocus Pocus]

Time to trust my instincts instead of the models and MetO as the last time I saw such inconsistencies in forecasts were during the 80s when a cold spell would literally arrive from nowhere.

[Hocus Pocus]

After viewing the short term update I would say this one is worthless.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 20 Jan 2015:

 

The most likely scenario for the coming New Year is for a continuation of changeable, and at times, windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and southern and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. In between the wetter periods there should be drier, brighter, and colder spells. Temperatures are most likely to be around, or slightly below, average for the time of year with overnight frosts and some snow possible, particularly over the high ground.

 

No changes from yesterdays update as far as I can tell.

 

Beebs outlooks for roughly the same period

 

Monday 5 January—Sunday 18 January Still no real sign of a prolonged cold spell

 

All the indications are that, as we move through to the end of January, the song remains the same! We continue to monitor the atmosphere and computer models, looking for any indications of a potential change to a less mobile and changeable weather set up over the UK. So far though, any sign of a prolonged cold or milder spell has yet to appear, and for the time being, it seems we will have to contend with large changes in weather conditions on an almost day to day basis! This means that milder, windy and wet spells will likely be interrupted by colder, clearer intervals. Of course, here at the BBC Weather Centre, we will continue to monitor the situation, and will keep you informed of any changes to the longer term forecast.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited December 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Neiller22]

And their outlook flips completely today again. Honestly is there any point in them issuing these to the general public. It's a complete joke! Everybody yest was astounded by that update and couldn't figure it out ! Super computers. Give me a break. What a joke

[johnholmes]

And their outlook flips completely today again. Honestly is there any point in them issuing these to the general public. It's a complete joke! Everybody yest was astounded by that update and couldn't figure it out ! Super computers. Give me a break. What a joke

 

You strike me as a bit of a comic, not a bad idea at times.

I would much rather see a change in the forecast to fit their assessment of the computer outputs than ignoring model changes. Forecasters tend to get thick skinned about making 180 degree turns, be it from basic meteorology prior to models being available or since models arrived. My only complaint is that todays' professional forecasters do seem to have to abide by a strict interpretation of the model and less of their professional knowledge built up over the years.

Edited December 23, 2014 by johnholmes

[Neiller22]

Ha ha john. It's just totally frustrating. People that follow the weather regularly know now that there outlook changes on a day to day basis. However the normal Tom, dick and Harry who check their website must be at wits end to actually come to a decision what the forecast is supposed to be. These guys in the met office are professionals and to me their website outlook is sending utterly confusing signals to the general public. I hate to say it and I mean to offence to them but is it any wonder their is that many jokes about weathermen and how inaccurate they are at times!! But your right they basically just state what the models show and gone has their professional personal input. Anyway let's hope the models flip back to that invisible northerly they managed to see!!!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jan 2015 to Saturday 10 Jan 2015:

New Years Day will see slow moving patchy rain across western areas, which may become heavy in the northwest later. Eastern parts likely to remain cloudy but dry, it will also be windy with local gales in the north. The more unsettled conditions across the north and west are then likely to gradually spread across the rest of the UK later in the week and into the weekend. At the same time spells of heavy rain, with occasional gales, are likely over parts of northwestern Britain. Looking ahead to the week after next, conditions look likely to remain unsettled, changeable and, at times, windy with spells of dull, wet weather interspersed by brighter, colder periods with showers.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Jan 2015 to Sunday 25 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario for this part of January is for changeable, and at times, windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and southern and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. In between the wetter periods there should be some drier, brighter, and colder spells. Temperatures are most likely to be around, or a little above average for the time of year with overnight frost and fog at times, and some snow is possible, particularly over the high ground in the north.

Updated at: 1421 on Sat 27 Dec 2014

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Jan 2015 to Sunday 11 Jan 2015:

Cloud and rain, heavy at times, is expected to quickly clear southeastwards on Friday, allowing clearer but colder and showery conditions to spread from the northwest across the UK for the rest of Friday onwards into next weekend. Showers are then likely to be wintry over higher ground on Friday before perhaps turning wintry to some lower levels at the weekend. Milder, cloudier conditions with spells of rain are then likely to return eastwards across Britain later next weekend. This heralds a changeable spell of weather for the first part of January. Conditions then windy at times and characterised by periods of milder, cloudier weather with spells of rain interspersed with clearer or brighter but colder, showery interludes with frosty nights and wintry showers on hills.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

Edited December 29, 2014 by Stuart

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Jan 2015 to Monday 26 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario is for the unsettled, and at times windy, conditions affecting the UK during the first full week of January to then persist through much or all of this period. This scenario would see periods of dull weather with rain interspersed by colder, clearer showery spells with frosty nights and leave western parts with the wettest weather and southeastern Britain seeing the best of any dry weather. Whilst this is considered the most likely chain of events, there is a small chance that later in January conditions could become drier and more settled with colder conditions.

Updated at: 1423 on Sun 28 Dec 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfhyzzs9j

[feb1991blizzard]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 27 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario is for the unsettled, and at times windy, conditions affecting the UK during the first full week of January to then persist through much or all of this period. This scenario would see periods of dull weather with rain interspersed by colder, clearer showery spells with frosty nights and leave western parts with the wettest weather and southeastern Britain seeing the best of any dry weather. At the end of the month there are signs of a colder, possibly more settled, spell of weather developing, but confidence on this is low at present.

Updated at: 1446 on Mon 29 Dec 2014.

 

 

 

HOUSTON WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!

Edited December 29, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Hocus Pocus]

Possible and maybes is as reliable as we can expect at this range and I guess they are basing their thoughts on possible developments regarding a SSW. Until these start to come into the short range forecasts it's nothing more than jam tomorrow forecasts and something to clutch at.

[johnholmes]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 27 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario is for the unsettled, and at times windy, conditions affecting the UK during the first full week of January to then persist through much or all of this period. This scenario would see periods of dull weather with rain interspersed by colder, clearer showery spells with frosty nights and leave western parts with the wettest weather and southeastern Britain seeing the best of any dry weather. At the end of the month there are signs of a colder, possibly more settled, spell of weather developing, but confidence on this is low at present.

Updated at: 1446 on Mon 29 Dec 2014.

 

 

 

HOUSTON WE HAVE LIFT OFF!!!

 

you are a day late I think for the bits highlighted!

[feb1991blizzard]

Possible and maybes is as reliable as we can expect at this range and I guess they are basing their thoughts on possible developments regarding a SSW. Until these start to come into the short range forecasts it's nothing more than jam tomorrow forecasts and something to clutch at.

 

Yes - no criticism of them on that score, the reason I highlighted the bit I did was because that's a small but significant change in their wording from their overnight update, it now says 'there are signs of" as opposed to a "small chance of", and I bolded the word possible because this means that the anti-cyclonic element is also in doubt so maybe they think we could get something better than that.

[johnholmes]

I do love it when we get these comments on what the man at Exeter really means. Good job he never comes on here to see some of the comments about his handywork.

[feb1991blizzard]

you are a day late I think for the bits highlighted!

 

The wording is more positive John.

[feb1991blizzard]

I do love it when we get these comments on what the man at Exeter really means. Good job he never comes on here to see some of the comments about his handywork.

 

But what are we supposed to do? not discuss any Met Office forecasts, they wont show us the GLOSE5 or EC32 so this is the only way we get to see what their thoughts are on the long range.

Edited December 29, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Jan 2015 to Monday 12 Jan 2015:

Fine winter's day for most on Saturday with showers mainly limited to northwestern parts with sheltered southern/eastern parts generally dry. Where the showers do occur, they will be wintry over hills, and perhaps to lower levels in the far north. Showers will largely die out overnight with a frost developing and isolated fog patches. After a cold and bright start that Sunday, milder, cloudier and windier conditions with outbreaks of rain, and hill snow in the north, are then likely to push eastwards later. This heralds a more changeable spell of weather through the following week with conditions then windy at times and characterised by periods of milder, cloudier weather with spells of rain interspersed by clearer/brighter, but colder showery interludes with frosty nights and wintry showers on hills

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfhyzzs9j

[Hocus Pocus]

But what are we supposed to do? not discuss any Met Office forecasts, they wont show us the GLOSE5 or EC32 so this is the only way we get to see what their thoughts are on the long range.

Indeed and that's why we are all here to discuss.

[karyo]

I really don't get John's comments sometimes! That's what netweather is supposed to encourage John, thinking and discussion! Otherwise, there will be no posts and no netweather!

 

Karyo

[johnholmes]

I really don't get John's comments sometimes! That's what netweather is supposed to encourage John, thinking and discussion! Otherwise, there will be no posts and no netweather!

 

Karyo

 

sorry its the ex senior forecaster from 20 years ago, you are both correct I should lighten up a bit.

[karyo]

sorry its the ex senior forecaster from 20 years ago, you are both correct I should lighten up a bit.

No worries. 

[Hocus Pocus]

sorry its the ex senior forecaster from 20 years ago, you are both correct I should lighten up a bit.

No problems John as I understand where your coming from and I tend to agree with most of what your trying to get across.