Tropical Cyclone Abele

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 03S has formed 700 miles west of Cocos Island, from invest 95S. Initial intensity is 35kts, and 03S seems poised to strengthen further as convection is persisting healthily over the LLC and even resmbles a forming central dense overcast. 03S has about 48hrs of low shear and warm sea temps in which to strengthen. Beyond this, waters will cool under the track, and shear will increase, inducing weakening and eventual dissipation. 03S is currently moving west-southwestwards along the northern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the south, but a powerful trough is forecast to break down this ridge causing 03S to swing to the southeast out of the tropics. 03S is of no threat to land.

[Cookie]

dude what have you done with you're name??!!

[Somerset Squall]

LOL- wondered when you'd notice! I had my old name for the 8 years I've been on weather forums and fancied a change. It's my nickname and year of birth lol

[Cookie]

LOL- wondered when you'd notice! I had my old name for the 8 years I've been on weather forums and fancied a change. It's my nickname and year of birth lol

I dislike immensely :lol: you will always been know as Somerset to me.

[Somerset Squall]

LOL

03S' intensity remains at 35kts. Moderate shear has really prevented this cyclone from strengthening so far, though this is finally showing signs of easing. Convection is becoming more centralised, and we should see intensity begin to rise this afternoon. 03S has turned to the south and should turn to the southeast soon over cooler waters. This gives 03S about 36hrs to strengthen.

[Somerset Squall]

03S has strengthened a little and has become Tropical Cyclone Abele, with intensity now at 40kts. Banding features have become much more impressive over the last few hours and put Abele in a position for further intensification.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for posting the animation Cookie.

Abele has strengthened significantly overnight, with intensity rising to 60kts. Abele has a compact central dense overcast with an eye visable on satellite imagery. Waters gradually cool on the southeasterly track, and the trough responsible for breaking down the steering ridge may well pump dry air into Abele. Therefore, the cyclone has probably peaked but there is a chance it could become a cat 1 on the SS scale this afternoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Abele has intensified more than expected, with intensity rising to 75kts, making the cyclone a cat 1 on the SS scale, and the strongest South Indian Ocean cyclone since Gelane back in February. However, a ferocious blast of shear is not far away, induced by an advancing trough. Coupled with passage over colder waters in the next 12hrs, it will cause aggressive weakening of Abele from this point forward, with full dissipation expected to occur by 36hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Abele has dissipatged over cold water and under high shear. These two factors will prevent regeneration.

[Cookie]

Abele has dissipatged over cold water and under high shear. These two factors will prevent regeneration.

Id laugh so much if it did regenerate.

[Somerset Squall]

It's happened before as we have experienced before :lol:

Abele's looking extatropical and is now at 23S, so I would be shocked, LOL