Chase 2011 Day 26 Disccusion

[Paul]

Team are heading east into Arkansas today where there is another high risk of large tornado's

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0755 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST

ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST

INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR AND MID MS VLYS INTO THE LWR OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE

AREAS...FROM SE TX NORTHEAST TO THE LWR GRT LKS...

...SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLY

INTO THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

POTENT KS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WRN MO LATE TODAY...AND

INTO WRN IL EARLY THU...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 70+ KT MID LVL FLOW

SWEEPS E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS.

AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS SHOULD TRACK E INTO CNTRL

MO BY TNGT...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY THU. A SERIES OF CONFLUENCE

AXES/WEAK COLD FRONTS IN THE SRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL MOVE

STEADILY E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY

THU. E OF THE LOW...FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND

SHOULD ADVANCE N/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN MI AND THE LWR GRT

LKS.

...OZARKS INTO THE MID/LWR MS AND OH VLYS TODAY/TONIGHT...

STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN DRY SLOT OF

SYSTEM UPR LOW AS THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES STEADILY EWD. BY EARLY TO

MID AFTN...SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2500 J/KG OVER A BROAD CORRIDOR S OF

WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IL/IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS... WITH HIGHER

VALUES POSSIBLE IN AXIS OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE

MS DELTA REGION OF AR/MS/TN.

SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON LEAD WIND

SHIFT/COLD FRONT OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH OTHER

STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER

ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN IL SSW INTO SE

MO/ERN AR/WRN TN. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN

AND EVE SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SE TX AND LA.

STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM AR/TN NWD WILL BE AUGMENTED BY ASCENT/MID LVL

COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE NOW ENTERING NW AR. AS THIS

FEATURE CONTINUES PIVOTING NEWD...ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50+ KT WSWLY TO

SWLY 700 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF AR...SE MO...SRN

IL/IND...AND WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN...ENHANCING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.

AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD CURRENT OF SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST

AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD AREA WITH PW AOA 1.25

INCHES FROM THE WRN GULF CST WELL INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS.

COMBINATION OF BROAD...MOISTURE-RICH...WEAKLY-CAPPED UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS

SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. SOME OF

THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG IL/MO/AR CONFLUENCE BAND...COULD

YIELD STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR

ALONG W/E WARM FRONT IN IL/IND. WIND PROFILES AND WEAKLY LINEAR LOW

LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE

SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE

STRUCTURES LIKELY WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES IN

ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO THE NIGHT. AN EXTENSIVE QLCS

MAY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS BY EARLY THU AS THE BAND

OF STRONGEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF

MO/IL UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/25/2011

[Harry]

Team are heading east into Arkansas today where there is another high risk of large tornado's

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0755 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST

ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST

INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR AND MID MS VLYS INTO THE LWR OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE

AREAS...FROM SE TX NORTHEAST TO THE LWR GRT LKS...

...SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLY

INTO THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

POTENT KS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WRN MO LATE TODAY...AND

INTO WRN IL EARLY THU...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 70+ KT MID LVL FLOW

SWEEPS E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS.

AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS SHOULD TRACK E INTO CNTRL

MO BY TNGT...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY THU. A SERIES OF CONFLUENCE

AXES/WEAK COLD FRONTS IN THE SRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL MOVE

STEADILY E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY

THU. E OF THE LOW...FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND

SHOULD ADVANCE N/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN MI AND THE LWR GRT

LKS.

...OZARKS INTO THE MID/LWR MS AND OH VLYS TODAY/TONIGHT...

STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN DRY SLOT OF

SYSTEM UPR LOW AS THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES STEADILY EWD. BY EARLY TO

MID AFTN...SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2500 J/KG OVER A BROAD CORRIDOR S OF

WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IL/IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS... WITH HIGHER

VALUES POSSIBLE IN AXIS OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE

MS DELTA REGION OF AR/MS/TN.

SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON LEAD WIND

SHIFT/COLD FRONT OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH OTHER

STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER

ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN IL SSW INTO SE

MO/ERN AR/WRN TN. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN

AND EVE SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SE TX AND LA.

STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM AR/TN NWD WILL BE AUGMENTED BY ASCENT/MID LVL

COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE NOW ENTERING NW AR. AS THIS

FEATURE CONTINUES PIVOTING NEWD...ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50+ KT WSWLY TO

SWLY 700 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF AR...SE MO...SRN

IL/IND...AND WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN...ENHANCING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.

AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD CURRENT OF SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST

AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD AREA WITH PW AOA 1.25

INCHES FROM THE WRN GULF CST WELL INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS.

COMBINATION OF BROAD...MOISTURE-RICH...WEAKLY-CAPPED UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS

SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. SOME OF

THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG IL/MO/AR CONFLUENCE BAND...COULD

YIELD STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR

ALONG W/E WARM FRONT IN IL/IND. WIND PROFILES AND WEAKLY LINEAR LOW

LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE

SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE

STRUCTURES LIKELY WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES IN

ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO THE NIGHT. AN EXTENSIVE QLCS

MAY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS BY EARLY THU AS THE BAND

OF STRONGEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF

MO/IL UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/25/2011

Blimey, that's quite recent - when I checked this morning it was Moderate!

Best of luck chaps! Hope you're lucky again today!!

Memphis in firing line today :blink:

[icbinb]

Pine Bluff for me today. Follow that corridor of good chase territory north east. Plus it brings back good memories!

[Nick F]

Going for my usual eastern Arkansas target of Stuttgart where the land flattens out into rice fields east of the Arkansas River. Stayed in this town around May 10th 2008 after following an EF3 that cut a swathe through parts of the town in the late evening darkness. Though hoping that the town will be spared later! Though anywhere between Little Rock and Memphis in the I-40 corridor and to the south a good bet IMO for initiation.

Some high CAPE indicated across Sern and Ern Arkansas on the 12z RUC at 00z UTC Thurs (18z CDT Weds)and enough shear for tornadoes too. Though further NE across western Tennessee is looking ripe for strong long track tornadoes looking at shear alone, if chasers are willing to make the trek over the Mississippi, so watch out Memphis!!

12z RUC SBCAPE and 0-3km SRH:

Strong 500mb wind speed max:

Precipitation:

[chionomaniac]

Knowing the chase terrain will have a big factor in where to start out today. Western Tenessee looks like the place to be but one has to negotiate the Mississippi and any associated remaining flooding.

Let's hope Memphis can stay out of the firing line. Good luck again and take care.

[NL]

High risk is to be expanded pretty soon from the SPC.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 251518Z - 251615Z

AN EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE UPDATED DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

AT 1630Z FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF

SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...AND WRN KY/TN. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL

BE ISSUED BY 1630Z FOR FURTHER METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION.

Edited May 25, 2011 by NL

[Arron]

Hi guys!

On the I40 blasting east at the moment, going to get east of Little Rock and probably head to Stuttgart to start. Should be there in 3-4 hours

[nsrobins]

Going for my usual eastern Arkansas target of Stuttgart where the land flattens out into rice fields east of the Arkansas River. Stayed in this town around May 10th 2008 after following an EF3 that cut a swathe through parts of the town in the late evening darkness.

It was 10th May, 2008 Nick. The same tornado chased Ben Howard and I across the forests north of Benton (yes, it chased us not the other way around LOL).

I bet the hills of W C AR are lovely on a warm summers afternoon but in the twilight of misty gunk loaded with high-end tornadic supercells it ain't fun.

Should be OK further east though as you say - I suspect Paul will want to start on the right side of the river though.

[NL]

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0370.html

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY EASTERN MISSOURI

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 WT 0370

PDS PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 80%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&& ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

Edited May 25, 2011 by NL

[chionomaniac]

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0370.html

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY EASTERN MISSOURI

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 WT 0370

PDS PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 80%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&& ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

Can't quite believe that there are two of these days on the run.

[TornadoJo]

Yeah, I don't like the terrain in these parts so I'm off to see the wizard (any excuse to get my shoes out). Unless anything else pops up. Maybe the twister museum too?

Virtually of course, although my shoes are just in the next room. . . .

Happy hunting & stay safe as always x

and then I log on Facebook n see there's a tornado heading right for kansas city. Well I got the Kansas bit right. Wonder if virtual me made it. . . .

Hope everyone is ok!

Edited May 25, 2011 by TornadoJo

[Arron]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0955.html

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251652Z - 251815Z

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL

THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE

REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND

CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT

EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM

DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH

RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN

CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO

SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER

PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY

WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A

BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG

TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.

[dallas]

Hi Team,

Are you gonna push up as far as Missouri, or is that too far?

[gpspete]

what do the newbies on tour 3 think so far?

Edited May 25, 2011 by gpspete

[Arron]

Hi Dallas, I doubt it as the chase terrain is much more favourable down here, if we do it will be towards to the south east corner, but you never know where we'll end up!

Hi Pete, the new guests are absolutely loving it as I guess you can imagine, just hope they don't expect this every day!

[ItIsGee]

Another PDS for today. I hope the skies look great and the pics and videos are outstanding but for gods sake please that magic word of SAFE needs to be highlighted. Wish I was there with you but keep safe and good luck to all chasers.

Graham.

[NL]

Live coverage of the storms going on in Kansas across the border into Missouri.

http://www.kctv5.com/video/28020529/index.html.

Thats quite a Lp centred over Kansas currently.

Tornado on the ground moving through Sedalia Missouri

[dallas]

Hi Dallas, I doubt it as the chase terrain is much more favourable down here, if we do it will be towards to the south east corner, but you never know where we'll end up!

Hi Pete, the new guests are absolutely loving it as I guess you can imagine, just hope they don't expect this every day!

Cheers Smokes,

Just listening to local Arkansas news streams, they said North central is looking favourable for torndao watch

And the watch area just been expanded, good luck today

Edited May 25, 2011 by dallas

[weatherobsuk]

TN warned cells breaking out to the East of Kansas City (metro is unaffected at this time), with more breaking out at a line in luckily more rural areas SE between I44 and I70

http://www.fox4kc.com/news/livestreaming/

[NL]

Reports coming in that the SW Sedalia Missouri.has injured and significant damage.

[dallas]

TN warned cells breaking out to the East of Kansas City (metro is unaffected at this time), with more breaking out at a line in luckily more rural areas SE between I44 and I70

http://www.fox4kc.com/news/livestreaming/

Cheers for the link......nice one

[Roger J Smith]

I would suggest Jonesboro in northeast AR to Poplar Bluff in southeast MO may see strong tornado development around 21z to 23z which is 4-6 pm CDT. But viewing conditions might be better closer to Stuttgart. The activity today is likely to backbuild down the front anyway.

Looking ahead, tomorrow looks like a travel day back west and Friday could produce some rather subdued but interesting formations in eastern CO and western KS.

Good luck today and stay safe.

[weatherobsuk]

KOMU 8 (Central Missouri) now that FOX4 is out of range

http://www.komu.com/streaming-newscast/

[vortex_liam]

looks like a PDS will be issued.

Oh wait ones been issued somewhere according to Reed's FB

Schools were just mentioned in the above link.

[weatherobsuk]

This webcam will be under a Tornado warning in less than 15 mins (Columbia, Miss), can't see much of the sky but it may be worth cautiously watching for anything suspicious.

http://journalism.missouri.edu/webcam/