The Weather Outlook Summer Forecast

[Summer Sun]

The Weather outlook have issued their summer forecast, and what stands out is how different it is to the Netweather summer forecast.

Summer 2011 often reasonable but not special

Overview

The forecast headline is for another mixed summer after a dry start. Some very warm spells of weather are likely with temperatures probably peaking at close to 33C (91F) in the south, but with increasing rainfall later in the season. Summer 2011 is unlikely to be remembered as a classic.

Precipitation

Over the three-month period significant variation is forecast in rainfall levels. In the north and Scotland rainfall levels are likely to be below average, but further south rainfall should be close to or slightly above the seasonal average. The driest conditions are forecast for the first third of the summer, and possibly the last week or two, with wetter spells more likely.

June Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Slightly below average

First half

A warm and dry spell of weather is forecast to develop during the early part of the month as high pressure builds north across the country. By the second week of the month a change to cooler and showery weather is expected to push south across the whole of Britain, although rainfall amounts in the south will probably remain below average.

Second half

Showery conditions in the north early in the period are likely to be replaced by drier weather. Fine weather should develop in the south for a time, though towards the end of the month an increasing risk of heavy and showery rain is predicted. Northern areas may remain mostly dry for a time as the less settled weather develops in the south.

July

Temperature: Slightly above average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

The first half of the month may well bring a spell of warm weather to much of the country early in the period. Towards the middle of the month showery rain is expected to develop and extend north across the country, and become heavy at times. Temperatures returning back towards average value as it becomes less settled.

Second half

Mixed weather is expected during the second half of the month. Temperatures over the period will probably be slightly above the seasonal average. Some warm sunny days are likely, but these will be offset by cooler and wetter days with the possibility of some heavy rainfall, most probably in the south and south-west.

August Temperature: Close to average

Precipitation: Slightly above average

First half

Rather unsettled conditions are expected during much of the first half of the month. Significant rainfall is possible in the form of heavy showers or more persistent and longer spells. Temperatures are likely to be slightly below the seasonal average.

Second half

The second half of the month is forecast to bring mixed weather early in the period with showers or longer spells of rain. During the last third of the month drier and brighter spells of weather should develop across most of the country. Temperatures over the period are close to or slightly above the seasonal average. .

Forecast Issued 31/05/2011

[SP1986]

I see TWO have gone for a safe forecast, albeit a fairly realistic sounding one. Of course that forecast has as much chance of any other as being correct.

It'll be interesting to see whether the press jump on it.. I suspect not because it doesn't appeal to their extreme reporting stance.

[Backtrack]

Interesting that only Net Weather expect a hot summer, and many other websites, including the weather outlook expect either a close to normal summer with nothing to remember, or a washout summer.

I see that the Met Office are also playing it safe by swaying similar to TWO, after a corking 30 day outlook reflecting the forecast made by Glacier Point.

I might even have a go at issuing a forecast myself to see how mine measures up to the different variety of forecasts available

Overall I do think summer will pan out like TWO and do not think that we will see much significant heat. I think that was wasted in spring.

[Summer Sun]

Netweather are still expecting a warm up mid month.

Our long term forecaster expects temperatures to return to typical June averages after the weekend, but still remain mainly dry. We are looking at the potential for much warmer temperatures to develop from mid month onwards.

http://www.facebook.com/netweather

[ANYWEATHER]

Seems similar to my Summer Forecast I issued yesterday ,anyone want to look its at the bottom of this Page.... :blink:

[Summer Sun]

Seems similar to my Summer Forecast I issued yesterday ,anyone want to look its at the bottom of this Page.... :blink:

An interesting read i never saw the link to you pointed it out - http://worcestershireweather.blogspot.com/ - Thanks

[95 Degrees]

I'm personally glad I didn't get carried away with the initial NetWeather long range forecast back in May, so that my expectations weren't set too high. although alot of members do seem to be being fairly negative about certain models this week.Yes there are a couple of disappointing models but that doesn't of course mean the end of our summer this early just because of a possible average first couple of weeks of June after this warm spell later on this week, and only the weather itself will decide.

I still can't see a washout looking at current telecommunications but in saying that, remain skeptical about 'shades of 76' like headlines and think that although in my opinion we are in for a dry and warmer than average summer, I think it will more likely be a downgrade of the summer of 95 rather than a blowtorch 76 or 06 style summer, although what do I know!

[Summer Sun]

Here is another prediction for summer 2011

June summary

Another difficult month to forecast as the upper patterning is quite complicated. We are going ‘against the weather forecasting grain’ slightly in suggesting that it will be a rather unsettled June for some. However, a generally settled dry start in the first week of June for most though some northern parts cool at times but general warm in the south for a few days at least with high pressure’s influence; but pressure falling away by the end of the week with low pressure to the south east in a short lived E-NE flow giving some showery rain and then by week two, with low pressure to the north or NW and high to the west or south west, a more north westerly flow will bring unsettled quite showery conditions into the north and west but it should stay somewhat drier and brighter in the south and east, especially the far SE but especially warm.

High pressure may dominate more after midweek onwards bringing a return to a more settled period for most though still with some showers in the north but with cool nights and local ground frosts as well and later the south & SW in particular may see low pressure bring some showery outbreaks, possible thundery at times. Confidence is not particularly high for the second half of June but week three looks as if high pressure may dominate more but it’s difficult at present to pin down exactly where it will be but probably to the west or SW allowing a rather NW’ly upper flow across many parts. So some dry fairly warm weather about by day in the south with rather cool nights but the risk of showers as well at times, perhaps thunderywhilst the north stays more unsettled with shower bursts.

The last week again is uncertain but climatology and patterning currently suggests more rather unsettled showery weather in the north west and high pressure to the south & south west with some chilly nights in places but day time temperatures near average and locally quite warm at times in places. Temperatures generally near or slightly above average in the south, somewhat below in the north, especially at night. Sunshine overall should be near average in the south & east with the north doing less well overall. Rainfall generally rather below average in central and eastern areas but the west and NW probably rather above average again and parts of the south west & south maybe near or slightly above average in places due to localised thundery downpours. Thunder will be near average, except possibly in the north where it may be slightly below.

Sea temperatures seem likely to be somewhat above average for most coastal areas and well above around SE coasts but around average on north western coasts. Soil temperatures generally slightly above average for most parts though nearer average in the NW and soil moisture below average for most areas, locally well below average in the south & east but in Scotland and Northern Ireland it will be near or above average.

June 2011 week by week summary:

Week 1 1st-7th June

A generally settled and dry start everywhere except may the far north from the second day of June with a lot of warm sunshine away from coasts where sea breezes will set in; some mist and fog patches inland by night too with a touch of ground frost in northern & central parts very possible. By the 5th though pressure falling away to the north east and low pressure will swing south towards the east or south east bringing a relatively short lived E-NE’ly flow and giving some showery rain for most as it does so, possibly heavy at times with thunder especially in the SE later and sea fret on east coasts.

Temperatures will be near or above average in the first week overall especially in the south east and east but overnight it will stay quite chilly, especially in the north. Rainfall will be below average in most parts whilst sunshine will be generally rather above average in central, southern and eastern areas but with the north faring a little less well but it should still stay above average.

Week 2 8th-14th June

By week two, the N-NE flow moving away SE and after a few days pressure may be higher, albeit briefly in the south & east, with some cold air across Scotland and northern England giving rather widespread late air frosts here. However low pressure never far away to the north or NW and then high pressure generally building up to the west and a polar north westerly flow will bring quite showery conditions into the north and north west in particular but from around midweek it should be generally drier and sunnier by day in central, south and eastern areas, especially the far SE. A ridge of high pressure may dominate more after midweek in the south bringing a return to a more settled period for most here but still rather more unsettled in the north & NW in particular with cool nights and local ground frosts. By the end of week lower pressure bringing some showery outbreaks, possible thundery at times down across the UK, these lingering in the SE & east.

Temperatures will be near average in the south but below in the north, helped by chilly nights with some late frosts expected & maybe central parts too at times. Rainfall will probably be somewhat below average for most eastern & southern parts though the north east may be only a little below average but nearer average in the west, and NW. Sunshine near and locally slightly above average for most SE & eastern parts but maybe a little below average elsewhere.

Week 3 15th-21st June

As mentioned above the second half of June has a relatively low confidence level at present but taking all things into account it looks as if high pressure may dominate more but it’s very difficult at present to pin down exactly where it will be. At present we feel it will probably tend to lie to the west allowing a continuation of rather NW’ly upper flow that we have seen recently across many parts. Whilst the south may therefore see some dry sunny weather about by day there will be rather cool nights and still the risk of some showers at times, perhaps thundery but it does seem the north- and the NW in particular- will again stay more unsettled with showery bursts.Temperatures near average in the main in the south & Midlands though some chilly nights in these central areas but rather cool overall in the north. Rainfall will remain below average for the south and east though some localised downpours may create local high spots, near average in the NW; sunshine will be near or slightly above average in the east and maybe the south as well but near average in the west, central areas and the SW and slightly below in the north.

Week 4/5 22nd-30th June

By week 4 although confidence isn’t very high, climatology and current patterning currently suggests more in the way of rather unsettled and showery weather is likely to continue in the north west but that there will be at least some days of high pressure in or close to the south & south west; this will give a few chilly nights in places. This pattern mat persist until the end of June but perhaps high pressure more dominant for all for a few days at least by the end of the month giving more in the way of sunshine generally across the UK. Day time temperatures should be reasonable and locally quite warm at times in places whilst the north struggles to reach average. Rainfall will be near or perhaps rather below average for most central, southern SE’ern and SW’ern areas but near average in the north & NW. Sunshine will a little above average in southern & eastern areas but slightly below average in northern, western & northwestern areas.

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id18.html

[ZONE 51]

The 2nd day of summer and shades of 76 are with us in the south at least, this is a drought and it is sunny and warm and there is High pressure!

[Stormyking]

Im going to remain patient as I don't think the real good stuff in terms of heat will start to properly show until July time, yes ok the first coupel of weeks of June aprt from this week looks like it will be quite average, but there is plenty of summer time to go.

So don't worry people the time to worry is around beginning of August lol

[Harry]

Personally, I think a hot summer IS likely, but as ever with the weather, not in the same time frame as one might have thought a month ago.

I'd rather get the mid atlantic ridge scenarios and cool northerlies out of the way now ahead of proper summer time