La Nina/el Nino

[bobbydog]

The NOAA ENSO forecast is saying that enso-neutral conditions will most likely last into autumn, then a possible return to la nina :

Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012.

i realise its just one part of the equation but i was wondering how this was likely to affect the general weather patterns for the UK and europe over the coming months, along with other factors such as QBO, NAO etc

[Costa Del Fal]

I know very little about La Nina/El Nino etc but as far as I am aware, a weak La Nina in Winter is very good but if it gets too strong like last winter, then its not good news at all.

[Guest]

Seems like a pretty short El Nino - it doesn't seem 5 minutes since it started.

[bobbydog]

Seems like a pretty short El Nino - it doesn't seem 5 minutes since it started.

apparently it hasn't started, its stayed neutral

[summer blizzard]

MEI values for June were -0.2 indicating a neutral to weak La Nina. Ultimately many factors will come into play this winter however we want a near neutral ENSO state if possible.