Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[legritter]

chins up COLDIES / LAMP POST WATCHERS ETC i think we are in for an interesting 6 months . i am not forecasting a long harsh winter, but iv just had a look over the last couple of days at the northern hemis , interesting , some good night time lows , a good bit of early cold over far north and n/e of canada . when we had those mild mush years , late 80s till aprox 2008 . not much was happening in the far north during autumn , just spent 12 days in scotland and northern england sun 9th oct / sat 22nd oct , everything but the kitchen sink ,frost heavy rain , on the wed 12th oct in western scotland looking over to sky it was like being in greece , thurs and friday in sky was typical autumn , john o groats a bit windy , on the monday we travelled down to perth , chasing a weather front , we caught up with it a couple of hours before CAIRNGORMS we stoped the car whilst pretty high up ,had our hourly fag , it was very heavy rain ,within 2 min it turned sleety then wet snow ,we drove on for about 2 /3minutes and it started raining again .drove from perth to clamis on tue , and top of cairngorms snow covered , an early christmas present for me ,is the writing on the wall or will that swear word arrive soon .BAR---T AND ASSOCIATED LOW S/W OF ICELAND , IF IT IS GOING TO ARRIVE I HOPE ITS SOON , AND NOT IN OUR WINTER , LET IT COME QUICK AND GO QUICK M MY MOTH IN LAW AS JUST PHONED UP ABOUT ALL THE SNOW IN AMERICA , HAVE NOT WATCHED NEWS TODAY, AND COMP TOO SLOW , I HOPE WE ALL GET WHAT WE WANT ,CHEERS

[Gavin P]

lol at what PWS have posted in the PWS comment

Wintry Conditions

Winter may well show its hand over the mountains of Scotland during the first week of November, but there are still no indications as of yet to point to a November where we are knee deep in snow. Late November and during the opening weeks of December still look firm candidates to see something of a wintry scenario but apart from that, mild and wet conditions will continue to dominate. It's quite maddening to think that there is perhaps something we haven't seen here at PWS to suggest otherwise?

Jonathan Powell

Senior Weather Forecaster

Sunday October 30th 2011

Another pop at James Madden for what he said November would bring.

In my view, PWS have got FAR too much to say for themselves.

[Snowstorm1]

In my view, PWS have got FAR too much to say for themselves.

Agreed he shouldn't be slating other forecasts when his own are poor !

[wolvesfan]

Hi all,i think C h 's recent post where he describes the atlantic as being dead is a rather bold statement but is justified, somethings happened to our winter and i'm neither experienced enough or technically qualified to give the reason as to what but i am capable of observing its new pattern.we watched for nearly 2 decades when low pressure was king and seemed to power through at will,then around 3 years ago something changed,high pressure started to block out the atlantic again after all isn't that why we've had 3 colder than average winters.we see now time and again low pressure coming up against a brick wall and making little inroads the recent euro high indicative of this.this to me looks like continuing and the positioning of these events will determine what we get from this upcoming winter.

Edited October 30, 2011 by wolvesfan

[SP1986]

The Atlantic has been very dominant over the last few weeks, in fact it continues to be so now, so I'm a little puzzled to why people think that the Atlantic is quiet.. I'd say at the moment it's anything but, and we can't guarantee it will quieten down for winter. Although the GFS suggests high pressure becoming a player, I'm not sure by what means, because we haven't had a significant channelling of cold into central Europe that you would normally expect in order for high pressure development. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I'd be cautious for now.

[Isolated Frost]

It's all hopecasting due to signs looking bad for early November for cold fans, Stephen.

We are possibly on course for one of our warmest autumns ever; and the atlantic trough stalling is making us increasingly mild for the near future. We'll wait until late November to see want winter proper will deliver first of course

[Aaron]

Not sure why everyone is getting worked up for, December isn't the only winter month, if everyone has forgot..

[Isolated Frost]

Not sure anyone is getting worked up Aaron- just some rather extreme theories due to the dire synoptic scenario of now up to mid-November. No doubt we will get 1 or more cold blasts this winter; but some of these bizarre theories need to be dispelled...

[Aaron]

People seem very eager for cold to arrive and if it doesn't arrive by November then winter is over! November is Autumn really and as such shouldn't be really cold..

Edited October 30, 2011 by Aaron

[cyclonic happiness]

The Atlantic has been very dominant over the last few weeks, in fact it continues to be so now, so I'm a little puzzled to why people think that the Atlantic is quiet.. I'd say at the moment it's anything but, and we can't guarantee it will quieten down for winter. Although the GFS suggests high pressure becoming a player, I'm not sure by what means, because we haven't had a significant channelling of cold into central Europe that you would normally expect in order for high pressure development. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I'd be cautious for now.

I say the Atlantic is dead because, before 3 years ago it had no trouble whatsoever in throwing weather fronts and rain followed by the usual scattered, blustery showers, it's not done that now for months! even years!

Nothing seems to be able to get through to us, the weather is now imo, is a stagnant continental type with cold dry winters and because we are near the sea, maritime type summers minus the rain.

I have watched the Atlantic time and time again steam over everywhere north of the Midlands..............what's so different nowadays that it's unable to affect our region like it used to?

Not sure anyone is getting worked up Aaron- just some rather extreme theories due to the dire synoptic scenario of now up to mid-November. No doubt we will get 1 or more cold blasts this winter; but some of these bizarre theories need to be dispelled...

Disspelled? oh dear....have I committed witchcraft or something?

The people who are questioning my 'theory' (i'm not sure it goes as far as being a 'theory'...more a hunch) all seem to be to the north of the 'dead zone' where I'm sure everything is text book in regards to last winter....spring....summer and now autumn?

Edited October 30, 2011 by cyclonic happiness

[wolvesfan]

I say the Atlantic is dead because, before 3 years ago it had no trouble whatsoever in throwing weather fronts and rain followed by the usual scattered, blustery showers, it's not done that now for months! even years!

Nothing seems to be able to get through to us, the weather is now imo, is a stagnant continental type with cold dry winters and because we are near the sea, maritime type summers minus the rain.

I have watched the Atlantic time and time again steam over everywhere north of the Midlands..............what's so different nowadays that it's unable to affect our region like it used to?

Disspelled? oh dear....have I committed witchcraft or something?

The people who are questioning my 'theory' (i'm not sure it goes as far as being a 'theory'...more a hunch) all seem to be to the north of the 'dead zone' where I'm sure everything is text book in regards to last winter....spring....summer and now autumn?

Hello c.h,your theory or hunch seems bang on the money to me.

Edited October 30, 2011 by wolvesfan

[Isolated Frost]

So, a small part of the SW Midlands is not experiencing it's usual rainfall and now the atlantic is dead?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

So, a small part of the SW Midlands is not experiencing it's usual rainfall and now the atlantic is dead?

Given the wet summer and Autumn we have had in Ireland I would hate to see what an alive Atlantic would bring

[bobbydog]

ah! so the atlantic is dead! and here's me thinking the atlantic was sending low after low towards us, which were being deflected on a north-easterly track, dragging up mild southwesterlies, by the stubborn euro high which everyone has been hoping would shift and all along it was because the atlantic is dead!!

[Snowstorm1]

RIP Atlantic

[ukpaul]

So, a small part of the SW Midlands is not experiencing it's usual rainfall and now the atlantic is dead?

And areas South. we had a heavy rain shower last week for about a minute, I'd forgotten what it was like. Many areas are crying out for rain but just aren't getting it, on the other hand my parents up on the Lancashire coast are begging for it to stop. The country is totally split at the moment with rain fronts stalling in the south and getting stuck over the north west.

[Aaron]

Try virtually all of England except the North West (and maybe South West) experiencing below average rainfall. The Atlantic might be 'active' but it certainly does not feel like it as it hasn't rained much at all..

Edited October 30, 2011 by Aaron

[Aaron]

This is from 'Global Warming' on The Weather Outlook who has written something very interesting and something to think about..

For what its worth, 2011 is still looking remarkably similar to 1978 temperature wise with the exceptions of February and April. But since May the two years have been very close. We all know what happened in the winter of 1978/9 - very cold.

The rolling average Nina index also compares well with both 1978 and 2011 very weakly negative at this point. 1978 remained weak throughout the winter returning to zero by February. This year looks like it could be somewhat more heavily into negative territory - we probably want something close to -0.5 if we are to repeat the 78/79 winter.

Also worth noting that in 1978 we did not get any cold weather until 25 November - the last week of November was very chilly and included 4 negative CET means. December 1978 was very variable with some very cold periods and some very warm periods. The real sustained cold did not begin until 30 December. I recall reading in I think the winter thread recently that Gavin P was saying his latest thinking is that the real cold weather may well be after Christmas this year. If we follow 1978/79 that would certainly be the case although we could still see a few very chilly days before the end of the year.

The first 24 days of November 1978 saw a CET mean of 10.4C which is almost a record high - it compares to the 10.55C for the same period in the record year of 1994 which saw a final CET of 10.1C. So I would strongly advise people not to despair if we are talking about very high November CET figures in the next few weeks because that does not necessarily mean it won't turn very cold during the winter or even during the last week or so of November. Interesting times ahead I think.

[wimblettben]

This is from 'Global Warming' on The Weather Outlook who has written something very interesting and something to think about..

Interesting times ahead I think.

You mean boring times ahead!!!

[wimblettben]

Looks like parts of the US are getting there first load of proper snow now!

[Terminal Moraine]

This is from 'Global Warming' on The Weather Outlook who has written something very interesting and something to think about..

It's all very well if you hold any faith in pattern matching and analogue years. I spent the best part of 20 years trying to construct long range seasonal forecasts on this basis and came to the conclusion that the outcome was little better than chance.

The Met' Office also used this system for their long range forecasts in the 60s, 70s and early 80s and, despite the information at their disposal, had results that were little better than mine and abandoned it, at least for public consumption.

I'm not saying there definitely won't be the granddaddy of all winters in 2011/12 but I wouldn't forecast one on the basis that 2011 has so far been similar to 1978.

[Aaron]

He's also making the point that November 1978 was almost a record breaker for all the wrong reasons, despite the final 4 days seeing negative means.. I don't believe in pattern matching myself but he makes a good point that things can change quickly.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like parts of the US are getting there first load of proper snow now!

Parts of New Jersey have actually had up to 19 inches of snow with pretty widespread accumulations right to the coast. Most of the north eastern states have broken October records.

I do think that calling the Atlantic dead is an overstatement however i do think that the Jet Stream is tracking unusually south to the point that it has attempted to undercut the ridge but failed.

[summer blizzard]

Hi Darren, that is the crux for me - will the trend for -ve NAO override the signal of La Nina which would suggest generally a zonal pattern ? I will be posting a brief winter forecast soon.

Interestingly i have actually been analysing La Nina for my winter forecast and am increasingly confident that La Nina will weaken over the December-February period as a whole (probably peak in December), so people basing their forecasts on strengthening may be caught out.

[Chris D]

I think all this talk of the Atlantic being "dead" is somewhat overdone, however, there has definitely been less in the way of vigorous Winter storms affecting NW Europe during the last 3 or 4 years. Is that because the 2000s had mainly very mild and active Atlantic dominated Winters, and we were "spoilt" with storms or "deprived" of colder and drier weather? Or is it just normal to have these patterns of higher and lower levels of precip and atmospheric pressure over relatively long periods? I think a mixture of the two seems to be the case.

One thing is certain, and that is (although Im no expert yet) the fact that this current ENSO signal could take a nosedive into a moderate or strong La Nina territory again (according to the CFS) - making it two successive Winters with a strongly -ve ENSO. That means the value has not been above 0°C since May 2010. Will this have any effect on us?

I know its very simplistic just to cherry pick one thing, but IMO the largest ocean is sure to have an effect across the World, albeit with lots of overriding factors changing conditions locally.