Scotland - Regional Discussion

[Cheggers]

Well done again

hoz the young cheggs doing ?

getting much sleep lol

:lazy:

Wee one doing great, sleeps 4 to 5 hours a night thankfully. Need to introduce the wee man to some snaw though.

[BleakMidwinter]

Wee one doing great, sleeps 4 to 5 hours a night thankfully. Need to introduce the wee man to some snaw though.

did you say that's four weans you have now? Hmmm, have you looked at pricing for a four-wean sled-harness? You could save a fortune in diesel in a snowy winter, getting to and from the shops, work, etc...

[edo]

That's some blob appearing northwest on the radar....mayb what's caused the amber warning not that it will ever make it to here....anybody northwest should have a chance of getting something from it......map looking fantastic although when moving my pin I created a second and cannot seem to delete it....any ideas?

[BleakMidwinter]

..map looking fantastic although when moving my pin I created a second and cannot seem to delete it....any ideas?

Develop a split personality and lay claim to both?

Edit to add: I can only see one of you. Either you deleted the spare successfully, have incorporated all your facets into one complex being, or are standing behind yourself hiding...

Edited December 18, 2011 by BleakMidwinter

[LomondSnowstorm]

LSS do you know roughly what time the snow fell last night?

I thought I noticed a fresh dusting this morning, it was hard to tell due to a combination of yesterday's dusting and hoar frost.

The radar suggested about 2-2.30am. Had I checked the radar before I went to bed at 1.30am I might've stayed up later as it was a pretty beefy looking shower.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

That's some blob appearing northwest on the radar....mayb what's caused the amber warning not that it will ever make it to here....anybody northwest should have a chance of getting something from it......map looking fantastic although when moving my pin I created a second and cannot seem to delete it....any ideas?

done

[Cheggers]

did you say that's four weans you have now? Hmmm, have you looked at pricing for a four-wean sled-harness? You could save a fortune in diesel in a snowy winter, getting to and from the shops, work, etc...

Think I might struggle to get 2 of them into a harness. But yes have 4 now, 10, 9, 4 and 1 week.

Blob to NW needs to beef up a wee bit if it's going to make a decent land track.

[Hairy Celt]

Crikey there's some work going in to that map - and agreed it's better than that twatty TS website that is a right PITA.

Freezing hard here, lethal out where snow & ice has been trampled. Weans were out sledging this afternoon, back in with a selection of bumps, chilblains, grins & hunger. All good fun. (Meantime HC hammers away at the keyboard to finish report before Xmas...)

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.048.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.096.png B)

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.120.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.168.png B)

http://hw.nwstatic.c...ecmt850.216.png

Welcome tae Scotland.

If you don't like the weather, just wait a couple of hours.

I have to say I'm slightly surprised by just how persistant this zonality is, even given the strength of the PV. That settled spell I forecast mid-month quite clearly hasn't happened and instead it's just been cool zonality for weeks now. It looks like that may continue, though with a change in the jet axis it will be more like normal zonality than cold zonality i.e. sometimes blowtorch, sometimes cold. This will probably mean that the mean Scotland temperature comes in around average (I reckon it's running somewhat below at the moment), with the CET coming in a bit above. Proper duvet day December weather - consistently cold, windy and sleety.

[edo]

Develop a split personality and lay claim to both?

Edit to add: I can only see one of you. Either you deleted the spare successfully, have incorporated all your facets into one complex being, or are standing behind yourself hiding...

Lol I liked the first idea....although then I would just be my wife (no offence female members) been doing it all from my phone so will check later if said wife ever gets off Facebook :/

done

Cheers really loving this map....great idea!!

Edited December 18, 2011 by edodfc

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Cheers really loving this map....great idea!!

Started adding ski areas with cams etc too.

It's very important that I do that ahead of working on the report I have to do for me day job....

[lorenzo]

Aaargh brain about to implode, watching Professor Brian Cox and quantum mechanics lecture... :o

[LomondSnowstorm]

Tomorrow's breakdown event:

http://expert-images...121906_1818.gif

http://expert-images...121912_1818.gif

I've decided that the 950 hpa temperatures are perhaps the best indicator of whether it will be snow or rain because, having looked back at the freezing rain on Friday night, this layer did have temperatures above 0C in spite of it being sub 0C above and below it (we may have to start getting into skew-t charts to get a grip on precipitation type forecasting). The line between rain and snow will be something like this give or take a bit round the coasts and about 15 miles north/south.

edit:I forgot to mention that it's likely that in terms of precipitation type your likely to stick with what you start with. The only exceptions to that are coasts in that white zone, where temperatures are likely to rise enough to turn snow to rain by mid morning, and those in the green zone who see initial freezing rain. Unfortunately that could be quite a lot of us, especially further east where surface cold will be more persistant than upper air cold. That freezing rain will also turn to normal rain with surface temperature rises. Also, the far northeast is unlikely to see much out of the band until afternoon, so by that time it will probably just be rain for low lying areas also. Perthshire and Angus will be the low lying areas to watch tomorrow IMO.

edit 2: NMM 18Z out, largely just backs up the NAE so for once there's consensus at T+09 hours and I don't have to re-do that map!

Edited December 18, 2011 by LomondSnowstorm

[aggy]

good stuff lomond . So why have themet got an amber out for strathclyde?

[LomondSnowstorm]

good stuff lomond . So why have themet got an amber out for strathclyde?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/PWSCache/WarningsImage/Image/NSWWS-cfb34bec-f3e9-496e-936d-b280b97678a2/uk/2011-12-19

It only covers the far northeast and southeast of Strathclyde i.e. high ground, and then low lying central/eastern areas. Even then, I think an orange warning for East Lothian for snow is uneccessary. It was issued before 12pm, so maybe their models were showing everything to be a few miles further south than now? Certainly if you just shift that orange a few miles north and leave a wee bit around SS's house it'd be similar to the map I doodled.

[aggy]

aha . I love learning on here . Thanks .

[lorenzo]

Great update LS, once you have figured out those Skew-T diagrams you will be out gunning GFS/NMM/NAE.

That incoming blob appearing to turn to sleet already with some snow showers in the NW.

[LomondSnowstorm]

aha . I love learning on here . Thanks .

No problem, as ever with weather forecasting there's always an element of doubt so there's always more to learn.

[Hairy Celt]

As LS hinted at earlier, tomorrow might be a duvet day. Don't like driving when the temp's fluctuating around 0C, especially on busy roads. I might be able to stop, but how's that Lesley*, 20m behind at 30mph on ice going to?

* change that to Aiden Burley, currently top of the Xmas turkey leader board.

Edited December 18, 2011 by Hairy Celt

[LomondSnowstorm]

Great update LS, once you have figured out those Skew-T diagrams you will be out gunning GFS/NMM/NAE.

That incoming blob appearing to turn to sleet already with some snow showers in the NW.

Indeed. Half the battle is finding a good free source of skew-ts. I may end up having to post some of the GFS generated ones on NW Extra sometime. I found this:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/Precip_Type_Fcstg.pdf Quite a good introductory guide to precipitation type forecasting using skew-ts.

[Soaring Hawk]

Oh it is good to be home! Have been working in dry sunny Newcastle for the last 3 months and only getting home (East Ayrshire) occasionally. I was surprised to arrive back yesterday evening and expected the snow to be limited to East Kilbride but as I drove down the M77 and to our village I was surprised to see a good covering of snow. Our village road was still snowy and there is at least 2 to 3 inches in our garden with a solid crunch to it. It has hovered around freezing all day and was at -2^oC at 9pm when I got back from a spot of late night shopping. The motorway signs on the M77 warned of "snow forecast tomorrow" so we shall have to wait and see what happens before it turns to the usual west of Scotland rain. East Ayrshire was looking very picturesque today in the sun - a real chocolate box scene of Scotland In Winter. Beautiful. We can see Arran from our village and it looked magical with the white peaks thrusting up into the winter pale blue sky. When we aren't dodging sideways rain, in my humble opinion Scotland is the best place anyone could ever wish to be.

[Guest]

Rain coming again here....

I'm getting used to this....freezing rain is ok....could be worse :lol:

[Hairy Celt]

Rain here too...:-(

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Snaw in the liquid phase here.

[Cheggers]

Rain here too...:-(

Ditto, oh well was nice while it lasted.