Project On Weather Forecasting And Society

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm currently doing a 'Science Baccalaureate' on the impact of seasonal forecasting on society and thought it'd be interesting to hear your views on Long Range Forecasting.

[Hairy Celt]

Accurate seasonal forecasts would have varied and potentially huge benefits to individuals (leisure, domestic repairs & improvements spring to mind), businesses (farms, forestry, construction, etc., etc.) and at the global scale (which corner of Africa's going to get no rain this year?) This would be a fantasy come true for some activities and it seems a really huge topic. How far off is accurate long-term forecasting?

[blitzen]

You can only work with the tools you've got I suppose. If what the models are able to churn out at the moment is anything to go by then it doesn't fill anyone with confidence. I certainly wouldn't bet my life on any current long range/seasonal forecast. I realise that it is a lot more involved than 'Will I be able to organize a BBQ 4 weeks from today?' sort of thing. I know that companies pay a great deal of money for accurate forecasts as this type of information is vital for their businesses ie: which type of crops are best suited to a wet,dry,hot or cold summer. Do we fill our shops with rainwear or beachwear? If they get it wrong too often, then this leads to loss of business which in turn could lead to the business closing down and therefore creating unemployment. Unemployment then creates lots of social, mental/ physical issues. The weather affects absolutely everything and it can and often does destroy people's lives. We all know that weather forecasting is complex but I do feel that we must strive for much greater accuracy and therefore any investment in this area can only be a good thing for all of our futures.