Poll: The Easterly - To Be Or Not To Be?

[A Winter's Tale]

Today we've seen some major developments in terms of an easterly! A battle between the Scandinavian High and the Atlantic is about to commence and at the moment it looks like the easterly may happen. So with this battle going on, I'd like to see what everyone's thoughts are on this.

You can discuss the following:

Show what most of the models are showing - Instead of posting a particular run from a model, try and summarise the scenario with showing what models are agreeing with the easterly scenario.

Discuss how the battlw will pan out and whether it will continue for longer.

Discuss latest Met Office updates and the media's take on the situation.

Predictions - Whether it will be a cold one or a cold and snowy one; the duration; how potent....

Discuss what may follow the initial easterly - More blocking over Scandinavia and/or Greenland?

Place your odds on an easterly occuring - 50:50, 75:50......

It sure will be interesting to see how this scenario works out and it would be great to see what the models are showing in general and their trends and discussion on the cold spell. I'd also love it if we could have some expertise on the event.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

for my location voted for cold and dry, coldest uppers my area -7C, but very snowy easterly for E areas, but GFS 12Z an exaggeration, will be nothing like that

[Bolton67]

for my location voted for cold and dry, coldest uppers my area -7C, but very snowy easterly for E areas, but GFS 12Z an exaggeration, will be nothing like that

You never fail to disappoint me mark.. we've had a crap winter so far and are now on the door step of our first real taste of winter. yet you seem to be a tad bitter because Eastern areas will come out better.

what IF the 12z gfs hits home ? you would have day time temps of about -4 and night temps of about -20. still wont be good enough for you i feel though.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Show what most of the models are showing: Looking at the current updates, looks as though the models, generally, are in agreement of some sort of Easterly/South-Easterly flow to establish next week. While some, such as the 18Z GFS, 12Z GEM and 12Z UKMO show the block staying more robust, some of the models, such as the 12Z JMA, bring in a bit more of an Atlantic influence towards the end of the run. As such, the JMA ends up bringing in warmer upper temperatures from the West/South-West.

Discuss how the battle will pan out and whether it will continue for longer: Although there is still some question as to how cold, how potent, and how far West the block will be for next week, I believe that the Scandi/Russian High Pressure system will out-win the Atlantic. The GFS, especially, does seem to have a habit of over-powering Lows in the Atlantic at times, and this is one reason why I feel the ridge to the East should get far enough West for most places to see an Easterly. However, there is always the risk of too much energy going over the High-Pressure rather than undercutting it, and I think what will happen is that far North-Western areas will most likely be prone to a South-Westerly/Southerly flow from the Atlantic at first.

Over time, I think there will be some attempt of the Scandi High Pressure to send some of its ridging towards Greenland, and force some of the Atlantic energy to head South-Eastwards. This should further strengthen any Easterly/North-Easterly flows, with possible Low Pressure systems tracking to the South of the UK.

I do have personal doubts about whether the energy to the North-West will allow a proper retrogression of Heights to Greenland, and I think there will be continuous fights with the Atlantic and Scandi High Pressure from time to time.

Discuss latest Met Office updates and the media's take on the situation: With theway the weather seems to be heading in, I do feel the Met Office's cold spell prediction could come true. No doubt lots could still change, but the thought of a sustained cold spell is starting to look a possible outcome. If the models do send Atlantic Lows smashing through the barrier to the East (though feel is unlikely), then this could clearly put their cold weather prediction in jeopardy - unless, off course, we ended up with a cold zonal flow.

Predictions - Whether it will be a cold one or a cold and snowy one; the duration; how potent: For this option, I voted the expected Easterly to be a cold and dry one, thanks to High Pressure mostly in charge. Nonetheless, if charts such as the GFS 18Z verify with uppers as cold as -15*C for the South-East, this should help stir up some showers from the North Sea, and bring some possible snow to Eastern areas - maybe with a small chance of this potential extending to Western areas if we can get a strong enough Easterly. At the same time, I do feel High Pressure may curb some of the convection from the North Sea ocean.

As for the uppers, I reckon most places will see uppers around -5*C to -10*C, perhaps peaking slightly above. Uppers of -15*C and below I feel maybe pushing it. But because I think the Easterly flow may gain more power, then some spots could very well reach it.

Discuss what may follow the initial easterly - More blocking over Scandinavia and/or Greenland?: Reckon some height rises will edge towards Greenland eventually, transforming any Easterly over the UK to more of a Northerly/North-Easterly, but then becoming a Scandi High Pressure again.

Place your odds on an easterly occuring: Probably around 85:15 chance for Eastern areas, and probably around 65:35 chance for Western areas.

[Aaron]

Will there be an easterly? Definitely.. will it be very cold? Ice days.. eh.. probably not. Snowy? Away from the east.. probably not