Hurricane Nadine

[Rainy]

Joining with a pal and throwing a huge party in a few days time?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

[JonMillar]

Any idea of the record for the gap between a system having stopped being a hurricane to reach hurricane status again?

Edited September 29, 2012 by JonMillar

[Somerset Squall]

Nadine weakened to a tropical storm this morning, but is now a hurricane again, for the 3rd time. Nadine is also crossing an earlier portion of the track, completing the extremely slow loop of the last week. Nadine's winds are currently at 65kts. Despite the shear, there is a chance Nadine could become a little stronger before moving over cooler water on the northerly track in a couple days time.

Edited September 29, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Nadine has strengthened to 70kts. Nadine could actually reach a new peak in intensity over the next 12-24hrs (Nadine's first peak was 70kts), which is quite amazing really for a tropical cyclone that's 18 days old.

[Thunder Snow]

Lol any chance she's gonna give us a visit

[Jack Wales]

Now up to 80mph, quite remarkable given the shear and marginal sst's

Here's the latest from the NHC...

000

WTNT44 KNHC 292037

TCDAT4

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 69

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012

500 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

ALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW

20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NADINE HAS CONTINUED

TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT IN

VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN

BANDING AROUND THE EYE. A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE

EYE IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT THE TILT IS LESS THAN THIS

TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM

TAFB AND SAB...THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS NEAR 80 KT...THE LATEST

AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE IN THE 70-80 KT RANGE...AND

THE LATEST CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS 78 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A

LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/13. NADINE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

TO THE EAST AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE GLOBAL

MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MERGE WITH THE LOW BETWEEN 24-72

HR...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING

CURRENTS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NADINE

WILL SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT 96 HR.

THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS THE LARGEST LOOP...WITH THE CENTER OF

NADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TO 30N BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD. THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK SHOWS MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION DURING THE LOOP THAN THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL NOT AS MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A LARGE

BAROCLINIC CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITH

THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST 30N.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER NADINE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST NEAR THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NADINE DOES NOT APPEAR AS SHEARED AS THE CIMSS/SHIPS-ANALYZED SHEAR

SUGGESTS...AND IT MAY BE THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHORTWAVE

TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY SHELTERING IT. THIS

TROUGH COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...

AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE

STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HR. FROM 24-72 HR...NADINE

COULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SHEAR AS IT MERGES WITH THE

MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THIS MERGER IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST

SOMEWHAT DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST

FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR WEAKENING DURING THIS

TIME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND

THE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AT 120 HR...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE

DELAYED IF NADINE IS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 34.4N 36.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 30/0600Z 35.8N 37.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 30/1800Z 36.7N 38.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 01/0600Z 36.5N 38.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 01/1800Z 35.9N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 02/1800Z 35.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 03/1800Z 35.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 04/1800Z 38.5N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[The PIT]

Lol any chance she's gonna give us a visit

The remains on the latest GFS goes past NW Scotland on the 6th of October.

[Coast]

She just isn't going to go quietly is she?

Forecast for Nadine

Nadine is currently in an area of moderate wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. For this reason, even though she has strengthened in these conditions before, I don't see much intensification in the future for her, though I think it is possible she may peak at around 85mph based on current trends and her upgrade to 70kts at the 18z ATCF update. I am expecting little change over the next 24 hours, with steady weakening after this time, and I still believe Nadine will become non tropical in 4-5 days as it moves over cool waters. Regarding track, Nadine should continue a NNW motion for the next 18-24 hours. After this time, through about 4 days out, Nadine will be in an area of weak steering currents, and as it has for much of its life, will meander around the open Atlantic with very little motion, with a possibility of the storm making a cyclonic loop as the NHC indicates. Finally, Nadine should get caught up in westerly winds generate by a developing baroclinic storm in the Atlantic and get forced E/ENE in the direction of the Azores as it loses tropical characteristics. The NHC hints that the storm will mostly go north of the Azores, but I feel Nadine will really get caught up in the westerlies as she weakens and the baroclinic storm strengthens, forcing her more east and closer to the central Azores in 6 days or so. It is too early to tell any specific impacts, but I do not expect anything significant at this point. Tropical Storm watches may be required for the Azores in a couple days as a precaution.

Models have been losing agreement with Nadine's track again. I am cautious on where to take Nadine right now because of model uncertainty. I call for Nadine to make a turn to the N and then meander the ocean for 3-5 days. I think Nadine could make a run for the Azores but I could simply get turned west or to the south. After 5 days there is too much unpredictability to even make a forecast, and the 5 day forecast is low confidence knowing Nadine's past. Nadine should continue to live her days in the Atlantic with her death date unknown.

http://www.wundergro...tml?entrynum=45

US 'spaghetti' models do have a broad consensus that she may be on the way past Ireland and Scotland:

Eventually.........

[Somerset Squall]

Nadine continues to strengthen and has reached a new peak. Sustained winds are now 80kts (90 mph). Nadine is managing to sustain some deep convection around the eye, and there is a possibility Nadine may just become a cat 2 before the shear rises further. Nadine is expected to make a loop as the steering currents collapse again, followed by an acceleration to the northeast ahead of an upper level low. NHC forecast Nadine to become extratropical in 5 days time as shear rises even further and Nadine moves over colder waters, though the timing of the transition is still uncertain, as well as the track.

[Coast]

Unbelievable, she just won't lay down.

Hurricane Nadine Advisory

11 p.m. update -- Nadine slowing down as it makes a counterclockwise loop.

Watches and Warnings

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour Outlook

At 11 p.m., the eye of Hurricane Nadine was located near latitude 36.7 north, longitude 39.4 west.

Nadine is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph. A slow counterclockwise loop is expected during the next couple of days, with Nadine moving toward the east by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Nadine is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nadine is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb or 28.97 inches.

Hazards Affecting Land

None.

Next Advisory

Complete advisory: 5 a.m.

http://www.cfnews13....nadine_con.html

[Rainy]

Yes, she's still hovering. Soon to find a mate, then looking to cause trouble.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

[Coast]

What effect if any will she/they have on Western UK?

[Coast]

Nadine now featuring on the 21st OWS maps and forecasts:

[matty40s]

The GFS had her nailed on for us yesterday which was out of kilter with all the other predictions.

I hink that whether she hits us or not, she will affect our weather for the next week or so.

[Somerset Squall]

Nadine is a 55kt tropical storm this morning. Nadine has looped back south but is now turning to the east ahead of an upper level low. Shear is low for now, but is expected to increase as Nadine accelerates northwards ahead of the low. This acceleration northwards will finally put an end to Nadine's tropical life as sea temps fall below 20C. This is expected to occur in 3-4 days time.

[The PIT]

GFS now says nay she won't effect us. Looks like she'll miss out on the record unless she can avoid being absorbed.

[JonMillar]

GFS now says nay she won't effect us. Looks like she'll miss out on the record unless she can avoid being absorbed.

Looks like she will make top 10 longest lasting Atlantic storms excluding her 1 1/2 days break, though.

Does anyone know if the storm brewing to her south is going to have any effect on her - it looks like a whopper if it can get itself organised!

Edited October 2, 2012 by JonMillar

[Sunlover]

Looks like she will make top 10 longest lasting Atlantic storms excluding her 1 1/2 days break, though.

Does anyone know if the storm brewing to her south is going to have any effect on her - it looks like a whopper if it can get itself organised!

Latest information on the low to the south of Nadine from the National Hurrican Centre:

quote:

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY

BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST

TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS DISTURBANCE

HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR

NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Chris W]

That storm looks like it could be bad news if it approaches land, it is very large indeed.

[JonMillar]

That storm looks like it could be bad news if it approaches land, it is very large indeed.

Looks like a FISH (see Atlantic Invest thread), though with potential to hit the poor old Azores later. Aslo models show it coming near us later on, but that is a long way off for the moment.

It looks like Nadine will be long gone before that happens.

Edited October 3, 2012 by JonMillar

[Rainy]

It could be Nadine's last throw. If she's getting a ride with a friendly low pressure and a fillip with the jet stream she might still manage to send us her 2nd offspring with yet more lashings of rain. Has this embryonic babe got a name yet?

[Keraunic]

I like the name 'Theo' because its Greek for two. Child number two, see.

[Chris W]

Looks like a FISH (see Atlantic Invest thread), though with potential to hit the poor old Azores later. Aslo models show it coming near us later on, but that is a long way off for the moment.

It looks like Nadine will be long gone before that happens.

Yes, I saw the forecast track today - could be quite a large low pressure system in that case, but it is a long way off and as Nadine has shown these things can be unpredictable.

[Zenarcher]

Nadine is expected to be absorbed by a low pressure system in the Atlantic over the next 48 hours,

Nadine could bring some rain through Friday and Saturday,

Gusty winds in the channel on Friday morning around 55mph at sea and 45mph over exposed coasts,

Edited October 3, 2012 by weathermaster

[JonMillar]

Nadine has made it into the top 5 longest lasting Atlantic tropical storms of all time.