Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[bradymk]

That is some shift west - in a short space of time - in 1982 it was also very marginal for the far SW with most forecasts predicting a brief snow to rain event - we all know what happened next!

haha dont, im getting excited, i have a weird feeling about this one, so hope for some more corrections south and west but the 18z is good enough for me, slighty more shift and were game on even in pembrokeshire

[g1blet]

Difference in the shift west on NAE can be really shown for Swansea, snow at 06 hours and still heavy snow at midday on NAE. Thats pretty impressive upgrade from a hi res

sounds interesting, any charts to show this please

[J10]

sounds interesting, any charts to show this please

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011806_1618.gif

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[John Lloyd]

Lovely wispy light snow falling over Riverside in Cardiff.

[benb]

NAE by Friday 18.00hrs has the snow falling line running pretty much Swansea to Aber- still plenty of snow east of this; dew points, temps, 850s too high by then to the west.

As Brady says, looking for the overnight runs to at worst firm-up on this, at best shift things a little further west again... for down here, anyway.

[Wales123098]

The snow looks like glitter. Very pretty. Any reason for it :s

[Liam Ellis]

Had light to moderate snow since about 6pm and lasted until 9:30ish tonight.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snowing nicely here only light but this is starters!

[bradymk]

Hopefully these upgrades continue in the morning, could be a great day for all Friday, i wonder if UKMO have modified the NAE Raw output to something further east or is this westward trend a new trend?

[bradymk]

PS. Ian F just tweeting to someone saying UKMO going with GM and UK4 and not using NAE 18z regarding precip totals. Dissapointingn but understandable. So basically we need NAE runs tomorrow to continue to show this back west before MetO take notice of it.

Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[CardiffStorm]

Although there has been a westward trend for the initial snowfall I think there is still going to be a thawing in the SW of Wales (and England) druing Friday evening.

Even if this westward trend continues I believe there is still going to be thawing in SW.

Also, have you seen this forecast from the Met Office regarding accumulations:

[worldairgroup]

The snow looks like glitter. Very pretty. Any reason for it :s

thats cause you just come out of the pub LOL nah joking perhaps its just the lights reflecting!

[DeepSnow]

Just been out and its neither snowing or raining, rather these very small ice crystals - weird!

[benb]

Although there has been a westward trend for the initial snowfall I think there is still going to be a thawing in the SW of Wales (and England) druing Friday evening.

Even if this westward trend continues I believe there is still going to be thawing in SW.

Also, have you seen this forecast from the Met Office regarding accumulations:

You're probably right, but seeing falling snow down here is rare enough let alone perhaps some of it sticking for any time at all! And with it coming in the early hours, there's the added possibility of a snow-day off work... ;-)

[J10]

Although there has been a westward trend for the initial snowfall I think there is still going to be a thawing in the SW of Wales (and England) druing Friday evening.

Even if this westward trend continues I believe there is still going to be thawing in SW.

Also, have you seen this forecast from the Met Office regarding accumulations:

That was issued this morning. However it may still be right.

I'd take 5cm though if offered.

[bradymk]

You're probably right, but seeing falling snow down here is rare enough let alone perhaps some of it sticking for any time at all! And with it coming in the early hours, there's the added possibility of a snow-day off work... ;-)

yes i just want to see snow, dont really mind if it thaws at the moment, however i must urge this may be a one off from the NAE and it may easily downgrade to previous outputs in the morning. Tomorrows ones are crucial and will decide.

[J10]

One thing I missed earlier is the surface flow http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/uv10/13011806_1618.gif

6am Friday, South Easterly.

[keithlucky]

One thing I missed earlier is the surface flow http://expert-images...011806_1618.gif

6am Friday, South Easterly.

Lovely Jackone what the welsh forum ordered.One more a thing nice hard frost tonight and tomorrow. Edited January 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[Icequeen]

One thing I missed earlier is the surface flow http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/uv10/13011806_1618.gif

6am Friday, South Easterly.

Good or bad?

[The Weather Dragon]

Brady is right - if the westward correction is not repeatable in tomorrow's output then it's cold rain for the south-west.

[keithlucky]

Good or bad?

Not good i"m afraid EXCELLENT Edited January 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

Good or bad?

Good, SE surface flow results in lower dew points and uppers become not so much of a concern.

Brady is right - if the westward correction is not repeatable in tomorrow's output then it's cold rain for the south-west.

Still think it will turn to rain in some parts of the west, especially southern parts of the counties. But if we continue the westwards trend tomorrow its game on for all areas but it is important that the 00z NAE continues this otherwise the 18z could be classed as a sort of outlier. UKMO wont go for it until it has more continuity so lets hope its 00z is as good or better than 18z.

[keithlucky]

Brady is right - if the westward correction is not repeatable in tomorrow's output then it's cold rain for the south-west.

look we kept the the cold brisk S Easterly great news.

[Icequeen]

Not good i"m afraid EXCELLENT

You nearly gave me a dicky fit then ;)

[Wales123098]

What's this about this split they are talking about on sw thread. What effect would it have on us? :s