atlantic Tropical Storm Dorian

[summer blizzard]

Well the last advisory is Dorians post-mortem but it had me puzzled throughout its lifespan although I`d chuckle to myself if a new invest turned up somewhere in the N caribbean sea next week?

Good spot fellas with the MLC seperation from lower indicating early signs of demise but its mighty interesting trying to monitor dry and stable air and how it interacts with these small systems in terms of preventing vertical stacking et-al, or is/was that a sole retribute of the shear that this cyclone fought as I can`t recall many strong values?

Dry air chocked it, high relative shear due to speed decoupled the center. Shear dropped but dry air prevented significant redevelopment. That's my appraisal anyway.

[summer blizzard]

Recon into ex Dorian now, microwave pass says welcome back Dorian and ships says hurricane.

[mezzacyclone]

so the rollercoaster that is/was (cycle until end) Dorian continues,

Borderline TS (AGAIN!?) : sustained est surface winds 38mph 21.283N 62.233W (200 miles NE of British virg isles,)

Noticed today how convection has been maintained where previous daytimes have seen severe loss of its structure?

repeat what I`ve mused on about all along, an amazing little feature,,,

[summer blizzard]

Gale force winds so they just need to confirm a closed circulation.

[Somerset Squall]

Not closed yet, so Ex-Dorian remains nothing more than a wave. But a persistant feature at that, and despite the less than ideal environment, I still wouldn't be suprised if this the disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone again.

[summer blizzard]

Nhc have decided that there is a secondary center to the east taking over which will be investigated tonight. The battling centers are probably preventing surface development.

[mezzacyclone]

(the recon data`s coming through patchy at the mo? in terms of time sequence?) but mission 2 into Dorian (or what was) has no reports of any W winds on the SW sweep of the disturbance thus far 180 miles N of PR headed NE into centre.

maybe by the end of the week we will be able to draw a line under it but who knows although the odds are stacked against Dorian making another comeback akin to Elvis?

[summer blizzard]

The MLC is a lot stronger today so we still can't write it off.

[mezzacyclone]

The MLC is a lot stronger today so we still can't write it off.

Any thoughts of this working down in the short term (tonights diurnal peak?) SB?

est sustained 35kn surface estimate at 21.300N 65.500W just a shame no LLC to match the impressive misleading cirrus outflow?

Nothing much from the monsoon troughs out to mid-aug according to the latest model runs so will this be our last focus for the Atlantic & GOM for a while?

[summer blizzard]

Any thoughts of this working down in the short term (tonights diurnal peak?) SB?

est sustained 35kn surface estimate at 21.300N 65.500W just a shame no LLC to match the impressive misleading cirrus outflow?

Nothing much from the monsoon troughs out to mid-aug according to the latest model runs so will this be our last focus for the Atlantic & GOM for a while?

 

Possibly, i'm optimistic given that it seems to have hung on in one form or another.

 

True, plenty of East Pacific stuff though.

[Somerset Squall]

A week after Dorian lost tropical cyclone status, the remains look to be trying to develop again. The remnants of Dorian are now located off the east coast of Florida. A LLCC appears to be forming near some increasing convection. NHC give a 30% chance of ex-Dorian regenerating into a tropical depression, but this may be a little conservative if current trends continue. Ex-Dorian doesn't have long however, as troughing will soon take this tenacious tropical entity out of the tropics soon as it swings the remains of Dorian to the northeast to be absorbed by a front. Even if ex-Dorian does redevelop, tropical depression or low end tropical storm looks like the best the system can achieve.

[Coast]

 

 

60% Chance Tropical Storm Dorian Redevelops, Projected Path Update

 

 

CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida --  As of 2:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, August 3, 2013, NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has issued its tropical outlook due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian (marked as #1) is centered off the Brevard County coast 70 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.  NOAA says that satellite data indicate that the low has become better defined and it is producing tropical storm force winds in squalls to the east and southeast of the center.

Satellite and radar data further indicate that associated showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized and just a slight increase in this activity could result in the formation of a tropical cyclone.

 

NOAA predicts that this system has a high chance (60%) of becoming a tropical cyclone again within the next 48 hours as the low drifts to the north parallel with the east Central Florida coast.

 

 

Spaghetti models  are in general agreement that INVEST 91 will continue on a northern track over the next 24 hours.  However, the models begin to disagree as to where INVEST 91 will go once it passes the coast of Daytona Beach, Florida.  Some models take the system parallel with the east coast of Florida while most take the storm further out to sea.

 

NOAA is forecasting an active or extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season this year due to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, lack of El Niño, and a continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 

 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOWPRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINEDAND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THEEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHERINDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLYBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THISACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IFTHIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BERE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLYNORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EASTSIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BEREQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOAFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDAPENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

 

http://news.brevardtimes.com/2013/08/60-chance-tropical-storm-dorian.html

[The PIT]

Surviving well old Dorian. It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

[Somerset Squall]

Dorian briefly regenerated into a tropical depression east of Florida but has since degenerated into a remnant low again as shear ripped it apart. Remarkable really though that Dorian manaaged to become a tropical depression again 8 days after it "died" first time, and at the other side of the Atlantic from where it died too.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Somerset Squall