Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Downpour]

Just one snow event, even if its just 30-40mm and hopefully enough to have a snow fight or build a snowman with my niece and nephew, thats all I ask from the weathergods.

agreed!

[Jax]

i  am  surprised   in the mad thread  they still happy  there a possible snow event for us  on Tuesday!!!  plus i reading the updates   from the weather people on twitter  this morning  they quite  bulliest for Feb   mind  you f1  is looking good at the  moment  for a prolonged  cold spell!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

They are doing motor racing as well?

[Downpour]

i  am  surprised   in the mad thread  they still happy  there a possible snow event for us  on Tuesday!!!  plus i reading the updates   from the weather people on twitter  this morning  they quite  bulliest for Feb   mind  you f1  is looking good at the  moment  for a prolonged  cold spell!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

It's FI (fantasy island) not F1

[Kent Blizzard]

It's FI (fantasy island) not F1

Maybe Bill is off to follow the Grand Prix 

Edited January 18, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[shotski]

That's all very well Tinybill but we have seen from this week the we need the PERFECT set up to get snow to our area.

[kold weather]

This is shaping up to fall into the poor/very poor category as cold spells go. The SE has firmly been on the wrong side of marginal throughout and I see nothing in the next few days that will pull it out of the hat. As is often said on Netweather there is nothing remarkable about snow at elevation and in the far north - that is just normal winter weather. To deliver, cold spells need to bring widespread snowfall to areas where the bulk of the population lives - and on that key criteria this one is failing and failing badly.

Wrong thread?

 

 

Any sort of situation where you have westerly/SW airflows with a frontal system is going to be an issue with regards to marginality in this sort of flow for us, the only way it isn't if its you've had a run of sub-zero temperatures before hand, and clearly in this case that has been lacking (yes, its cold at night, but there isn't the depth of cold to keep it that way during the way).

 

Wednesday is better for our area looking at the profile, but its still probably just the wrong side of marginal and will require perfect timing (arrival between 4-8am) to limit any increase of air temperatures which will happen in only a modest cold flow. 

 

It'll be cold, certainly not like last winter, but ultimatly the result I suspect will be the same - rain for most with a small amount of patchy snow here and there.

Edited January 18, 2015 by kold weather

[fluid dynamic]

Its absolutely incredible isn't it?

 

All these pages and pages of discussion on the MOD thread about whats going to happen when and to whom is all just pie in the sky. Its just normal winter here, warnings and predictions have come and gone. I am sure Ian F said that we should all have a dusting down here by now because MOGREPs and whatever said so, not that I can find the blimmin quote.... I might as well go and look at Metcheck.... and that's really sticking the knife into the experts !

 

And to top it off, its been so mild the grass needs cutting again

Edited January 18, 2015 by fluid dynamic

[Dami]

Just one snow event, even if its just 30-40mm and hopefully enough to have a snow fight or build a snowman with my niece and nephew, thats all I ask from the weathergods.

That's all i want since bubs is old enough to really understand. Even if it just last one day!

[mickeyb44]

Really hope you get snow Dami, kids should see snow at least once a year.

[Met4Cast]

Its absolutely incredible isn't it?

 

All these pages and pages of discussion on the MOD thread about whats going to happen when and to whom is all just pie in the sky. Its just normal winter here, warnings and predictions have come and gone. I am sure Ian F said that we should all have a dusting down here by now because MOGREPs and whatever said so, not that I can find the blimmin quote.... I might as well go and look at Metcheck.... and that's really sticking the knife into the experts !

 

And to top it off, its been so mild the grass needs cutting again

 

Ian said a few days ago that the MO were keeping an eye on the potential for 3-5cm across the South-East with MOGREPS and EURO4 both progging it, but had since stated that the models had backed away from that idea

[Kent Blizzard]

The problem is even in Summer many hunt around for a heatwave and a record breaking 38*c+ when in reality very very rare and few and far between.

[Jax]

The problem is even in Summer many hunt around for a heatwave and a record breaking 38*c+ when in reality very very rare and few and far between.

Yup, we have this thing called normal weather here, extremes of it are few and far apart (thankfully).

[ReindeerMarmalade]

I'm not sure what's worse - a winter with no snow for anyone and where the models don't keep raising hopes or this sort of scenario. I'm pleased for others but it does get remarkably disheartening when we keep missing out.

Daughter turned five last weekend and keeps asking me if we'll get any snow this winter

[Biggin]

Certainly looking to be a struggle to get any meaningful snowfall out of this current spell, the models continually putting back the potential. Ok some have seen some snow yesterday, but for many either it didn't settle or hang around on the ground for long.

 

Chance of a few wintry showers for northern home counties and E Anglia tonight, as fronts move south, fizzling out by time it reaches London.

 

Monday's looking dry, then we see the frontal system move in from the west and reaching our area Tuesday evening, according to 06z GFS, looks mainly rain/sleet, with snow Midlands north.

 

GFS63-574UK.GIF

 

Wednesday's night/early Thurs looking more interesting on GFS though for snow potential, as a low develops across the south ... but ECMWF differs quite a lot synoptically, with a weaker precip signal.

 

GFS90-574UK.GIFGFS96-574UK.GIF

 

But as we head nearer Wednesday, GFS hopes may still end up wrong side of marginal, especially if precip. is light, the heavier the better to aid evaporative cooling.

 

But with the cold spell looking to extend beyond this coming week, more opportunities I guess.

Thanks Nick a good post. Telling things as they are.

[Jax]

Just been out for a short walk to the shop and it is a lovely day out there, clear blue sky, sunshine and no cutting wind.  Makes the prospects for another walk later even better.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just been out for a short walk to the shop and it is a lovely day out there, clear blue sky, sunshine and no cutting wind.  Makes the prospects for another walk later even better.

 

Just goes to show what a bit of distance does; it's grey, dull and damp here.

[SMU]

The reason we aren't quite ideally placed is the onshore SW flow ahead of the front, however as the models are bending back west the fronts & mild sector will go with it...

 

The UKMO & GFS are marginal the ECM more supportive-

 

Awaits the 12z tracks.

 

remember we need the first slider to exit IOW not east of us

S

[shotski]

Yup, we have this thing called normal weather here, extremes of it are few and far apart (thankfully).

Errrr snow in winter= normal

No snow in Winter= abnormal

Is it really so extreme to get snow in mid winter ?

[IDO]

Just looked at the week ahead on BBC and it was really down playing the snow for everyone (minor skirmish). For the South and East, rain from weakening fronts. In the west mainly sleet with snow on hills. The Friday front again stalls in the west of the UK. Cold should hold on in the east till this time next week at least.

So really nothing wintry for us, maybe some cold nights but daytime temps 5-6C. It was always marginal and the Synoptics just wouldn't fall into place. Anyway we can look for further developments as we enter Feb for maybe a real taste of winter.

[Jax]

Errrr snow in winter= normal

No snow in Winter= abnormal

Is it really so extreme to get snow in mid winter ?

divvy up the days over say the last decade, break them down by season and look at how many snow days there are in winter, hot days in summer, much of the time the weather is "normal", it's the way our weather goes.

[lassie23]

Its absolutely incredible isn't it?

 

All these pages and pages of discussion on the MOD thread about whats going to happen when and to whom is all just pie in the sky. Its just normal winter here, warnings and predictions have come and gone. I am sure Ian F said that we should all have a dusting down here by now because MOGREPs and whatever said so, not that I can find the blimmin quote.... I might as well go and look at Metcheck.... and that's really sticking the knife into the experts !

 

And to top it off, its been so mild the grass needs cutting again

The models have gone back to snow lol . Surely when all models agree, or at least most, then you can take them seriously, otherwise it is all 'pie in the sky', will we be digging snow from our pathways or will the models flip again this evening?

Edited January 18, 2015 by lassie23

[jright35]

It has gone from crying, back to

What's changed then?

[lassie23]

What's changed then?

Sorry I pressed send without actually finishing my post   Apparently there is a battle ground scenario developing  between easterly winds and the atlantic, so somewhere will get some of the white stuff! But as I said, models have to start agreeing with each other before we can start celebrating. It could all go mild again this evening.  That is the way it is going at the moment Mickey.

Edited January 18, 2015 by lassie23

[jright35]

Sorry I pressed send without actually finishing my post   Apparently there is a battle ground scenario developing  between easterly winds and the atlantic, so somewhere will get some of the white stuff! But as I said, models have to start agreeing with each other before we can start celebrating. It could all go mild again this evening.

Up north yes. Down here no! It's going to be 5-7 degrees most of the week.

[Downpour]

Its absolutely incredible isn't it?

 

All these pages and pages of discussion on the MOD thread about whats going to happen when and to whom is all just pie in the sky. Its just normal winter here, warnings and predictions have come and gone. I am sure Ian F said that we should all have a dusting down here by now because MOGREPs and whatever said so, not that I can find the blimmin quote.... I might as well go and look at Metcheck.... and that's really sticking the knife into the experts !

 

And to top it off, its been so mild the grass needs cutting again

Fair comment Fluid Dynamic! I am actually banned from the MOD thread!