nw australia Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang

[Somerset Squall]

A late season tropical cyclone appears to be developing well north of Learmonth, Australia. It is expected to strengthen initially then move southeast towards the NW Australian coast. Higher shear should weaken the system before it potentially reaches the coast. I'll have a fuller update later.

[Somerset Squall]

Looking close to becoming a TC:

Persistant deep convection, spiral banding, upgrade must be imminent. For now, shear is low, and BOM are expecting a 10-min wind peak of 60kts.

[Somerset Squall]

21U has become Tropical Cyclone Quang, with winds of 40kts according to BOM. Convection continues to persist and deepen over the LLCC, which continues to be flanked by excellent banding. Further strengthening is expected over the next day or so.

[Somerset Squall]

Quang has bombed over the last 12hrs, with winds now at 90kts according to JTWC. An eye has emerged from the central dense overcast and has become quite clear. JTWC expect a peak of 115kts (cat 4 on the SS scale before shear rises significantly and quickly weakens Quang prior to landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Quang has continued to rapidly intensify, with winds now at 115kts according to JTWC, a cat 4 on the SS scale. Time is running out for Quang to strengthen as it is heading southeastwards into am area of much higher shear. This should weaken Quang significantly before it reaches the coast.

[Styx]

A picture to show Quang's proximity to the Australian coast.

 

 

...and that should be it for this season's cyclone season.  Four cyclones crossing land,  two of them severe ( Lam and Marcia ).

[Somerset Squall]

Very strong shear significantly weakened Quang before landfall, but it reached the coast as a very weak tropical cyclone. The system is now decaying inland.