South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[Tom Quintavalle]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

is this the cold spell everyone in the Mod thread was getting excited about? It's a bone chilling 8c lol

Yes Lassie, and don't forget Claudia of The Sun!!

Regards,

Tom.   

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER -        Lottiekent                         16th FEB                            10/1                          £5 WIN

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER -  Team Squirrel                                   19th FEB                  4/1               £5 WIN

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER -  Lottiekent                                         16th FEB                       8/1               £5 WIN

[snowray]

I think I will wait a little longer for my punt, it's certainly looking interesting around the time of Timbo's date or just before, but as they say, more runs required. Lets see what the 12z runs turn up.

[Timbo]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

I think I will wait a little longer for my punt, it's certainly looking interesting around the time of Timbo's date or just before, but as they say, more runs required. Lets see what the 12z runs turn up.

Hi Snowray, not a bad prediction by myself, this was predicted before the models even started showing this possibility.

Lets hope i have it on the button and clean up in the betting for this region.

Thanks for all your hard work, and all the best to everyone.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Hi Snowray, not a bad prediction by myself, this was predicted before the models even started showing this possibility.

Lets hope i have it on the button and clean up in the betting for this region.

Thanks for all your hard work, and all the best to everyone.

 All the best to you Timbo. I made you a rank outsider when you made that prediction, as you say, nothing was showing on the models at the time that I can remember anyway, but it goes to show how quickly things can change.

 

[LightningLover]

Just got caught in a heavy sleet and graupel shower... The temperature dropped from 8c to 4c in 3 minutes! 

Edited January 28, 2020 by LightningLover

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

is this the cold spell everyone in the Mod thread was getting excited about? It's a bone chilling 8c lol

Exactly!... the Look East regional forecast lady at 1:35pm had quoted 'a maximum temperature of 5c today' but that's wrong...it feels colder but it's really due to the breeze but is STILL above normal, in fact colder when we had those run of dull calm bland days.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[Tom Quintavalle]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP  

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER -        Lottiekent                         16th FEB                            10/1                          £5 WIN

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER -  Team Squirrel                                   19th FEB                  4/1               £5 WIN

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER -  Lottiekent                                         16th FEB                       8/1               £5 WIN

Hi Callum,

Even though you're from outside of the Region, as a regular in my "Fantasy" Competitions, I'm quite happy for you to enter the "Virtual" Wager side of the Competition. I'll enter your "Virtual" Wagers, into my Competition Folder. But as you're located in Scottyland and inherently colder, than us Southern Softies, I'll have to be a bit less generous with the Bonus aspect, of the "Virtual" Wager.

Should you be correct in any one of the 3 Categories and also receive some Settling Snow on that Date, you will receive an additional half of the Odds, in that Category. E.g. Category 1 - 10/1 will become 15/1.

Category 2 - 4/1 will become 6/1. Category 3 - 8/1 will become 12/1.

S.E.Region Members will receive double the Odds if you are correct in your "Virtual" Wager prediction and also receive some Settling Snow on that Date. This Bonus applies to all 3 Categories.

I see you've gone for Lottie K., Callum despite her shrinking to 30 mts, from 164 mts . "Lottie Land "is my favourite part of our Region, for a Snow Chase.

My first Snow Chase down "Lottie Way", was in Feb.1983 with my first Wife  (3 Months pregnant with our Daughter) and our near 2 Year Old Son, in a buggy!! There were 10 foot Snowdrifts at Capel-le-Ferne, up to the eaves of the many Bungalows, that can be found on top of the East Kent Downs, overlooking the English Channel.

Courtesy of this "little beauty":

I was living in Bromley at the time, at the opposite end of Kent. All we had there was a dusting of Snow. Heard about the amazing amount of Snow in East Kent, during Philip Eden's (R.I.P.) Weather slot on L.B.C. Radio and hastily booked a Day off, for the Snow Chase. 

So, if we find ourselves in a similar Synoptic set-up on the 16th Feb., watch out, we could all be in trouble!!   

Just want to add, Entrants that have already entered a "Virtual" Wager, have up to 9 PM Tomorrow, to change their Selections, if they so wish. This only applies to the "Virtual" Wager part of the Competition and NOT, snowray's Competition!!

Regards,

Tom.     

[Mark wheeler]

4 hours ago, LightningLover said:

Just got caught in a heavy sleet and graupel shower... The temperature dropped from 8c to 4c in 3 minutes! 

We Have a winner . Competitions over that’s Winter Folks .

 

 

Jokes

 

Thanks @TomSE12 for bringing Fun to the thread .

[Froze were the Days]

Tight Isobar in the model thread thinks current outputs are showing the trigger to cold in the UK 'big time'...you heard it hear folks.

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

We Have a winner . Competitions over that’s Winter Folks .

 

 

Jokes

 

Thanks @TomSE12 for bringing Fun to the thread .

Thanks for your kind words Mark.

Also had a Shower, in my Wet Room installed by Lewisham Council and kindly administered.by "Septic Peg". 

Water was plenty warm enough, felt pretty chilly once Shower was turned off but no Graupel or Sleet to report.

Regards,

Tom.     

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@TomSE12 something like that would probably give a chance   though I suspect @lottiekent is hoping for an easterly for a better chance which a few cfs runs have tried recently  though of course by the time we get to the 16th the charts will probably be a lot different  . I had a chance of snow up here last night but ended up with cold rain whilst some just a few miles to the west got snow  Wishing all of you in the SE better luck with the snow hunt  

[LightningLover]

43 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

We Have a winner . Competitions over that’s Winter Folks .

 

 

Jokes

 

Thanks @TomSE12 for bringing Fun to the thread .

I almost suffered a coronary from the exhilaration of it

[Mark wheeler]

. It’s been by far the coldest day here , I started the day early doors waiting for a colleague to collect me at 5:30 am and it really was cold . It was actually quite refreshing but not so much once I realised at the event I went too had not bothered to put the heating on . Any way the models actually have me really intrigued for the first time this year . Will probably vanish in the morning but the chase is fun .

[Tom Quintavalle]

5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@TomSE12 something like that would probably give a chance   though I suspect @lottiekent is hoping for an easterly for a better chance which a few cfs runs have tried recently  though of course by the time we get to the 16th the charts will probably be a lot different  . I had a chance of snow up here last night but ended up with cold rain whilst some just a few miles to the west got snow  Wishing all of you in the SE better luck with the snow hunt  

Hi Callum, 

Actually and speaking on Lotttie's behalf, her area benefits better from a N to N.N.E. flow, longer Sea Track (as in Feb.1983). Straight Easterly's tend to be too dry in East Kent, too short a Sea Track (unless embedded Troughs are present, as in Jan.1987).

In the South of this Region, Snow Streamers are normally from the following directions.

1. N to N.N.E. - Extreme East of Kent (Heavy falls of Snow likely, esp. East Kent Downs).

2. N.E. - Mid-Kent to East Sussex - (Again some heay falls of Snow possible, esp. over any higher ground).

3. E.N.E - Thames Corridor (The fabled "Thames Streamer) - Can give appreciable amounts of Snow, in S.Essex, N.Kent, S. and E.London and even as far West, unusually as West Surrey (as in Feb.2009 but not the norm).

4. E. to E.S.E. - Extreme South Coast of Kent and Sussex, and South East Essex. Tends to be too dry. with flow straight off, a very cold Continent. Can get some accumulation of Snow in those favourable areas mentioned, where Sea Track is a bit longer, allowing a modest "Streamer" to develop. 

Regards,

Tom.       

[Froze were the Days]

Got up to 7.5c here today...the coldest day experienced here on the Essex coast this winter has seen a max of 5.4c which by any winters standard is pretty poor, though expect to beat this if any day verifies on the latest ECM/GFS 12z run (obviously towards day 7 onwards).

[John Stevens]

Hi @TomSE12 here’s my wagers. Have had great fun taking part! 
SE Snow Settling Cup

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER -            Senlac Jack £2.50 win    

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER -  TEAM SQUIRREL £2.50 win

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER -   Senlac Jack £2.50 e/w

I’ll take “Virtual prize 1” should I be so lucky!

Best

JS

[claret047]

8 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

No problem Dave, here we are then:                                

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER - Claret047 (23rd MAR) £5 WIN @ 80/1.

Did you want WIN only? That is an Each Way price. Remember, according to snowray's Rules, it's the first "settling" Snow, that will be deemed the Winner. To gain a Return on an Each Way Wager, Snow can also fall 2 Days either side of your chosen Date.

If you choose WIN, your "Virtual" Returns would be - £405 - (£5 x 80 + your £5 Stake).

If you choose EACH WAY, your "Virtual" Returns would be -

Exact Date - £255 (£2.50 x 80 +1/4 x 80 x £2.50 + your £5 Stake).

2 Days either side of the 26th March - £52.50 - (1/4 x 80 + your £2.50 Stake). 

It's your decision Dave.

I made it a big Price because I personally think settling Snow will fall before 23rd March, plus it's pretty late to achieve, settling Snow. 

Now, who do you fancy to win Categories 1 and 3?

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER.

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER.

I Posted the Betting Odds for all 3 Categories, on Sunday.

Regards,

Tom.     

 

 

 

 

Hello Tom,

Thanks for your reply. Apologies for the delay in responding but I have been out for most of the day. In answer to your question on considering it further I will take up your suggestion and have an each way bey instead please.

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

[Tom Quintavalle]

9 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

Hi @TomSE12 here’s my wagers. Have had great fun taking part! 
SE Snow Settling Cup

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER -            Senlac Jack £2.50 win    

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER -  TEAM SQUIRREL £2.50 win

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER -   Senlac Jack £2.50 e/w

I’ll take “Virtual prize 1” should I be so lucky!

Best

JS

Hi JS, I'll get those entered but the Stakes are either £5 WIN or £2.50 EACH WAY.

Many thanks.

Hi claret047,

I'll change your "Virtual" Wager to - £2.50 EACH WAY @ 80/1 claret049 (23rd Mar).

Regards,

Tom.     

 

 

[John Stevens]

8 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi JS, I'll get those entered but the Stakes are either £5 WIN or £2.50 EACH WAY.

Many thanks.

Hi claret047,

I'll change your "Virtual" Wager to - £2.50 EACH WAY @ 80/1 claret049 (23rd Mar).

Regards,

Tom.     

 

 

Thanks Tom, my blunder!!! Meant e/w.... being very dim tonight!!

 John 

[Mark wheeler]

Hi @TomSE12 like @claret047 I am not the best at following the betting etc so have also gone for my own date . Is this ok ? 
 

Dave , I just have a feeling we will get something around this time . 
 

 "Virtual" Wager to - £2.50 EACH WAY @80/1 Mark Wheeler  (22d  Mar).

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just a quick reminder to those Members looking to have a "Virtual" Wager on the S.E.Region Snow Settling Cup.

My "Virtual" Bookmaker's Satchel is open until 9 PM tomorrow, Weds 29th Jan.

You will be allocated "Virtual" Stakes of £5, in each of 3 Categories. You will find the Betting Odds for all 3 Categories, contained in a Posts, I made on Sunday. The Categories, are as follows:

CATEGORY 1 - Outright Winner. Predict the S.E.Region Member, who in your opinion, has predicted the exact Date of the first spell of Snow settling in the whole of the S.E.Region, in the next couple of Months.

Place your allocated "Virtual" Stakes, as £5 WIN, or £2.50 EACH WAY.

CATEGORY 2 - North Thames Winner. Predict the Member in the North Thames Region, who in your opinion, has predicted the exact Date of the first spell of Snow settling in the whole of the S.E.Region, in the next couple of Months.

Place your allocated "Virtual" Stakes, as £5 WIN, or £2.50 EACH WAY.

CATEGORY 3 -South Thames Winner. Predict the Member in the South Thames Region, who in your opinion, has predicted the exact Date of the first spell of Snow settling in the whole of the S.E.Region, in the next couple of Months.

Place your allocated "Virtual" Stakes, as £5 WIN, or £2.50 EACH WAY.

Your "Virtual" Wagers MUST be Posted on this Thread, by 9 PM Tomorrow, Weds 29th Jan.

Please Copy/Paste your Selections and "Virtual" Stake (£5 WIN or £2.50 EACH WAY), into the Boxes provided below:

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER -                                  

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER - 

CATEGORY 3 - SOUTH THAMES WINNER -

Thank you.

Regards,

Tom.        

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

Rather than a long ramble of my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, thought I'd include a few "screengrabs", of Louise Lear's broadcast.

The first one is a lovely shot of snowy Fort William in the Highlands, and is for Claudia of The Sun Newspaper.

Shock, Horror, it does Snow in the Scottish Mountains, in mid-Winter January!! 

Sorry Katrine but no last minute reprieve for your prediction of settling Snow, on Friday 31st. 

Nice try but a bit further North-East, please Louise!! 

So that we can tap into that deeper cold, way out East over Russia.

High Pressure looking to calm things down in the extended outlook but nothing that Wintry, on offer yet.

Much thanks to Louise Lear.

00z GFS, not having it though and a reinvigorated Jet Stream doesn't allow the High, to build over Scandinavia.

                00z GFS (7th FEB)

00z ECM, also flattens the High with the "Mild Theme" looking to continue, out at t240 (8th Feb).

              00z ECM (8th FEB)

So, IMO those of us who went for a Mid-February prediction, also starting to look on shaky ground!! 

Although 2+ Weeks, is a long time, in Meteorology!!

Just a quick reminder to those Members still looking to have a "Virtual" Wager on the S.E.Region Snow Settling Cup.

My "Virtual" Bookmaker's Satchel is open until 9 PM tonight.

See Format, contained in my previous Post.

Regards,

Tom.      

[Timbo]

21 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

QUOTE - TIMBO - 

"Hi Tom, Can you place me £5.00 on the nose for my date 10th Feb, i would also like to add that i also think in will be in my location, do i got extra for correct date and location??" 

Thanks Timbo, you've reminded me. Should you be correct in your "Virtual" Wager prediction and also receive "settling" Snow at your Location, I will Double your Odds. E.g. 10/1 becomes 20/1, 14/1 becomes 28/1, etc, etc.

Go steady though, this "Virtual" Bookmaker doesn't want to become "Virtually" skint, courtesy of too many "Virtual" Payouts.

I think I'm to gong have to request photographic evidence, though. I should imagine we've all got Cameras on our Mobile Phones, now. When I "Hosted" that Snow Depth Cup back in 2012, Members kindly Posted up Photos of their Snow, with a Ruler, stuck in it.

That takes care of Categories 1 and 2:

CATEGORY 1 - OUTRIGHT WINNER - Timbo (10th FEB) £5 WIN @ 10/1.

CATEGORY 2 - NORTH THAMES WINNER - Timbo (10th FEB) £5 WIN @ 4/1.

Now who do you fancy for, Category 3?:

CATEGORY 3 -SOUTH THAMES WINNER -

I Posted the Betting Odds for all 3 Categories, on Sunday.

Regards,

Tom.     

 

Hi Tom, please place this bet

SOUTH THAMES WINNER - Lottiekent £5 win

[Dami]

Turning milder. yesterday, although I know what you lot will say, I saw a 76% chance of snow for my area a few days down the line. It gave me HOPE!  

Now as expected it has gone back to zero percent and a it's getting 'milder'

Gah.

Turner milder, what a depressing thing to see mid -winter.