Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Something I have just noticed. There are some radar returns in East Anglia, and looking at the latest infrared Sat24 image it was from some clouds that were not on there 15 minutes ago...

Is convection finally underway? 

*prays the storms explode into life*

[matt111]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Something I have just noticed. There are some radar returns in East Anglia, and looking at the latest infrared Sat24 image it was from some clouds that were not on there 15 minutes ago...

Is convection finally underway? 

Definitely looks like it. 

[jake44]

looks good that is popping up so fast wow

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

This just appeared out of nowhere. 

This just.... died out of nowhere

[matt111]

Anaprop I presume

[Zak M]

I think they might be false radar returns once again actually, if there was rapid convection over there and judging by the previous runs we definitely would have at least an orange or red somewhere around there.

@Josh Rubio That's a false return unfortunately, in fact, I see false radar returns in that exact position all the time.

[Argyle10]

False strike? Off North Cornwall?

Edited May 21, 2020 by Charlie Harnett

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

This just.... died out of nowhere

I'm fairly certain it was anomalous propagation, lots of that around today on the radar for whatever reason!

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

I'm fairly certain it was anomalous propagation, lots of that around today on the radar for whatever reason!

Please use your big brain skills to do a forecast for us

[jake44]

something has gotta happen soon

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

Please use your big brain skills to do a forecast for us

If only I actually had those skills, hahaha

Edited May 21, 2020 by LightningLover

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

If only I actually had those skills, hahaha

We can rely on zak!  Zak for cast please xd and you have lots of skills lightning lover 

[jake44]

that rader is being so tricky for us tonight thinks its halloween lol

[Stabilo19]

 

9 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I'm fairly certain it was anomalous propagation, lots of that around today on the radar for whatever reason!

Yep looks like quite a bit of anaprop and false strikes on the radars today. These are not "cells".

Looks like plain rain coming in tonight, nothing exciting.. unless light rain is your thing. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Stabilo19

[Argyle10]

The strikes on the south west coast are they false or a repeat of last night?

[Josh Rubio]

I'd be surprised if any rain actually makes it to the ground as opposed to staying dry as it looks very light and patchy. 

[Zak M]

@Mitch perrott If anything I'm probably worse at forecasting than LightningLover lol

Well here are my thoughts:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 22 MAY 2020

Valid: Friday 22 May 00z - Saturday 23 May 00z

Warm, moist and unstable air advected from a plume will support some scattered heavy showers/thunderstorms in the early hours of Friday morning. The greatest risk of seeing lightning will be in East Anglia/Kent/SE England. There is some uncertainty about how much lightning will be produced if heavy showers develop. A few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will also support these showers. The highlighted area shows the places most at risk of seeing lightning, so if you are in the risk box, you are not guaranteed 100% to see lightning. Some areas a few miles from the risk box could still have a chance of seeing some elevated showers/thunderstorms in the early hours of Friday morning.

[jake44]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

@Mitch perrott If anything I'm probably worse at forecasting than LightningLover lol

Well here are my thoughts:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 22 MAY 2020

Valid: Friday 22 May 00z - Saturday 23 May 00z

Warm, moist and unstable air advected from a plume will support some scattered heavy showers/thunderstorms in the early hours of Friday morning. The greatest risk of seeing lightning will be in East Anglia/Kent/SE England. There is some uncertainty about how much lightning will be produced if heavy showers develop. A few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will also support these showers. The highlighted area shows the places most at risk of seeing lightning, so if you are in the risk box, you are not guaranteed 100% to see lightning. Some areas a few miles from the risk box could still have a chance of seeing some elevated showers/thunderstorms in the early hours of Friday morning.

when thay say early hours do thay mean 2 3 4 hmm ?

[Zak M]

Just now, jake44 said:

when thay say early hours do thay mean 2 3 4 hmm ?

Yes.

[LightningLover]

Delete

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by LightningLover

[jake44]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Yes.

hope its not too late i will be so tired in morning lol

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

@Mitch perrott If anything I'm probably worse at forecasting than LightningLover lol

Well here are my thoughts:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 22 MAY 2020

Valid: Friday 22 May 00z - Saturday 23 May 00z

Warm, moist and unstable air advected from a plume will support some scattered heavy showers/thunderstorms in the early hours of Friday morning. The greatest risk of seeing lightning will be in East Anglia/Kent/SE England. There is some uncertainty about how much lightning will be produced if heavy showers develop. A few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will also support these showers. The highlighted area shows the places most at risk of seeing lightning, so if you are in the risk box, you are not guaranteed 100% to see lightning. Some areas a few miles from the risk box could still have a chance of seeing some elevated showers/thunderstorms in the early hours of Friday morning.

Amazing for cast thank you 

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

What exactly are you trying to imply there, Zak? Hahaha

That you're a better forecaster and know a lot more than me 

[Mesoscale]

Why do the sensors detect false lightning strikes, also why does the radar data show anaprop? 

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Mesoscale
Spelling mistake.

[jake44]

Just now, Mesoscale said:

Why do the sensors detect false lightning strikes, also why does the radar data shoe anaprop? 

 

think its on drugs lol