Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just now, Mapantz said:

That's because Zak's picture shows the 3rd of May.

just seen Sunday didn’t pay attention to the date

[ChannelThunder]

Surprised to see a bit of Ac Cas around this evening, glowing orange in the late sunshine. Signs of the mid-level moisture mentioned in today's CW forecast from Dan 

[Eagle Eye]

Thursday the storms most of them miss the North Atlantixx

[Eagle Eye]

[The PIT]

On 21/04/2020 at 20:07, Thundershine said:

Oh I love storms, but nothing in this part of the world interests me in the least. I don't get excited by a few distant rumbles. I'll be going to New Orleans in August in one of the next few years so I'm looking forward to getting my storm fix then!

Sheffield seems to be in a "black hole" for storms maybe because of the pennines immediately to the west/north?

We used to get them but in recent years they never get beyond the top of the Dronfield bypass and what does is light rain or cloud then as it moves away they build back into storms. No idea what's changed less moisture than they used to be who knows.

[Paul Sherman]

Tuesday starting to grab my attention. After heavy rain sweeps north from France which might have a few rumbles and flashes Monday Night, Tuesday sees clearing skies and some heavy convective showers with hail and thunder. 

First bit of proper action for a week or so.

[Zak M]

You know storm season is here when you see this for the first time! 

[Josh Rubio]

Tomorrow afternoon and into the evening looks interesting for Central areas with heavy, thundery showers moving east.

[Rush2019]

43 minutes ago, Zak M said:

You know storm season is here when you see this for the first time! 

I hope it comes up a little more north, actually a little further north so Sheffield is in with a shout too.

[Daniel*]

On 22/04/2020 at 18:22, Harry said:

I live just round the corner from you @Windblade and I don’t think the past few years have been pants - on the contrary, in the past few years I’ve seen some of the most electrically active storms ever (in the UK). In terms of frequency, pretty much about average I’d say overall really.

We did have a very quiet start to the year a few years ago (can’t remember which, maybe 2017??) and then it went nuts from June onwards with rounds of intense storms over the following months. 

I’m enjoying the crystal clear skies and hope for a nice storm season, even if I have to wait til June/July

 

Well here in practically Central London it has been pants for years now plenty of downpours but not much else, May 26-27th 2018 thunderstorms were incredible among best I’ve seen. It seems the new norm is for the storms to be seeded in London area where it is hottest, only for them to turn into beasts further north in Midlands / N England. It has been that bad I’m not sure what is hard to get proper thunderstorm or snow, you could always rely on a good thunderstorm every summer not anymore. The period 2013-2016 was very good here since 2017 very little apart from May 2018 last year was rubbish. 

[Paul]

Just in time for a potential storm risk tomorrow

How to forecast thunderstorms: The basics - Blog by Nick Finnis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Learn the basics of thunderstorm forecasting in this guide written by Netweather forecaster Nick Finnis.

 

[viking_smb]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

You know storm season is here when you see this for the first time! 

what  chart is that from?

[Rush2019]

9 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

what  chart is that from?

Not too sure without Zak confirming it, but it looks like windy.com.

[Zak M]

35 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

what  chart is that from?

 

25 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Not too sure without Zak confirming it, but it looks like windy.com.

Yeah, it's windy.com

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 26 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 27 Apr 2020

ISSUED 18:58 UTC Sat 25 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Heights will gradually fall during Sunday over the British Isles, as the upper ridge recedes to the Continent allowing a sharpening upper trough near north Scotland to begin to sink southwards. The net result is a gradually strengthening mid-level westerly flow, while the surface pattern remains rather slack and conducive to low-level convergence and confluence in response to diurnal heating, surface troughing and the approaching weak cold front from the north.

... WALES / MIDLANDS / EASTERN ENGLAND ...

A zone of slightly higher surface dewpoints (8-10C) was located over Wales and SW England on Saturday, and this is expected to gradually advect northeast across the Midlands towards eastern England on Sunday as the mean surface flow veers from the east round to the southwest. Moisture pooling along convergence zones, and also aided by orographic forcing, will provide the focus for a few scattered heavy showers to develop during Sunday afternoon and early evening. 

Overall, the environment is slightly more conducive for lightning than compared with the previous two days, however 100-300 J/kg CAPE, somewhat marginal mid-level lapse rates, weak shear through the cloud-bearing layer and restricted depth of convection suggests that any lightning will be isolated, and most areas will remain void of any such activity. The risk is generally considered 15-20% in any one location.

... S IRELAND ...

Depending on the speed of the weak cold frontal boundary from the north, slightly higher surface dewpoints may linger over the far south of Ireland, which may aid in the development of isolated showers during the afternoon hours should a convergence zone become established. However, given the restrictions mentioned in the above paragraph, the risk of lightning here is considered very low (10%).

... SCOTLAND ...

Throughout this forecast period, scattered showers will affect parts of Scotland - especially in northern and western parts. While shear is much stronger here, it is generally confined to above the cloud-bearing layer, and so given otherwise meagre CAPE and limited convective depth the risk of lightning is also considered very low (10-15%).

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-26

[ChezWeather]

Certainly potential for some heavy downpours tomorrow afternoon 

 

 

EURO4 Accumulated Precip for 18:00 tomorrow 

 

Only a Low chance forecast from Convective Weather 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well that’s rubbish for the proper south

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A very long way off, but next weekend is starting to catch my eye. Been watching this for a few days now, with numerous swings, but a huge westerly swing overnight has gone in our favour of possibly seeing our first Spanish plume of the season. All subject to change, which it probably will! But there are some impressive parameters currently on the table being shown in the outer reaches of the Medium time frame. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[sparky1972]

Not a lot of hope for storms here today going by the bbc forecast, but please can we have rain, garden looking desperate 

[Benny123]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

Not a lot of hope for storms here today going by the bbc forecast, but please can we have rain, garden looking desperate 

Just 2.5mm of rainfall here in North Staffs this Month! I was hoping for an April record here, but looks like next week will balance the books a bit.. 

[Vestan]

Next weekend is May.

The Sun is getting stronger now. When we get those 40C temps in Europe again we can look forward to more slightly disappointing plume events!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, Vestan said:

Next weekend is May.

The Sun is getting stronger now. When we get those 40C temps in Europe again we can look forward to more slightly disappointing plume events!

Hopefully so. However, temps of 25-30c are more than adequate to trigger severe events. In fact, you don’t necessarily need excessive CAPE and colourful charts for a decent outbreak. Dew points, a trigger mechanism and wind shear play a big part.

You can have all the CAPE and LI in the world, but if the cap is too strong, or there is insufficient trigger mechanisms, the whole thing can end up being a bust. Oklahoma May 20th last year had a rare high risk warning, but it did not live up to expectations, due to a strong cap and a warm nose in the mid levels scuppering lapse rates somewhat. 

[ancientsolar]

Some showers about 10miles to my North in South Wales, - some towering from them ,. but not currently potent.

[Allseasons-Si]

Shower developing to my south,shame we can't chase

[Allseasons-Si]

Gone very dark overhead with a Cb shooting up,echo on radar now.