December 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2021-2022

[Bradley in Kent]

Looking at the forecast and historic stats, I can see this December coming in as a top 10, perhaps top 5.

[summer blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Looking at the forecast and historic stats, I can see this December coming in as a top 10, perhaps top 5.

That requires a CET above 7C, not happening.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Looking at the forecast and historic stats, I can see this December coming in as a top 10, perhaps top 5.

We may not have had a December that was below average at all since 2010, but in actual fact, apart from 2015, notably mild Decembers have been scarce over the last 30 odd years.  The second warmest December since 1988 was in 2018 (6.9 CET), which just makes the top 20 (but not the top ten) along with four other Decembers with an equal CET; only two Decembers in the top 20 warmest in the last 33 years and only one in the top ten, is not very many compared to a number of other months in the year in the last 33 years.  For a top 20 December the CET would need to be over 6.8 (cannot see this figure being reached this month), and for a top ten December it would need a CET over 7.3.  

This December may make the low 6's CET by the month's end after adjustments, but it will still be a fair bit short of the top 20 warmest.

[Roger J Smith]

Assuming a CET of 6.0 after today, then with just four days left, about the highest it can go is 6.6, even if all four days equal current records, which are around 11 C, then the math is ((27x6) + (4x11)) / 31 = 206/31 = 6.65 ... then there's the inevitable downward adjustment, possibly around 0.3, so as I think closer to 10 C than 11 C for these four days, the outcome will be 6.5 - 0.3 = 6.2 (or within 0.2 of that). 

These were the forecasts between 5.6 and 6.8:

6.8 _ 110.0 _ freeze ( 34 ) 

6.3 __ ------ __Richie3846 ( 54 ) 

6.3 __ 77.6 __Kirkcaldy Weather ( 62 ) 

6.0 _ 120.0 _ syed2878 ( 21 )  

6.0 __ 85.0 __Froze were the Days ( 47 ) 

5.9 _ 132.0 _ Stationary Front ( 05 )  

5.9 __ 59.0 __shillitocettwo ( 18 ) 

5.9 _ 115.0 _ Typhoon John ( 14 ) 

5.9 __ 82.0 __stevew ( 28 ) 

5.8 _ 100.0 _ Blast From the Past ( L1-2 ) 

5.7 _ 121.4 _ coldest winter ( 41 ) 

5.6 __ ------ __Kentish Man ( 44 ) 

------------------------------------------------------------

The current EWP is around 80 mm and now appears likely to end up near 110 mm as the GFS still has 30 mm left in its projections. Apparerently those projections have been running low for several days. Looking at the list of probable top CET forecasts, one of syed2878, Stationary Front or Typhoon John look to be most likely to take best combined forecast. And once again, coldest winter has a chance at a top EWP ranking (last year, averaged 9.1 points out of 10 in occasional appearances, while not entered often enough to enter the top twenty in points, was scoring at a rate 30% ahead of the contest winner). 

Let's see coldest winter contest winner hmm ... 

 

[Roger J Smith]

 

Almanac for 28th December

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 11.5 in 1987. This replaced 11.0 from 1974, which had replaced 10.5 from 1781. Other high values included 11.3 in 1994, 10.4 in 1983, 10.2 in 2007, 10.1 in 1882 and 1954, 1955 and 1958, 10.0 in 2015 and 9.8 in 1909. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -8.2 in 1798. Other low daily means include -5.0 in 1853 and 1892, -4.7 in 1995, -4.2 in 1799 and 1908, -3.8 in 1822 and 1849, -3.5 in 1961, -3.3 in 1985, -3.0 in 1856 and 1962, -2.9 in 1783, -2.8 in 1788, and -2.7 in 1869 and 1965. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.3 in 1974, which replaced 12.9 from 1955. Other mild days include 13.5 in 1994, 12.8 in 1987, 12.7 in 2015, 12.3 in 1882 and 1988, 12.1 in 1958, 11.9 in 1912, 11.8 in 2012, 11.6 in 1879, 11.4 in 1983 and 11.3 in 1909, 1921 and 1954. 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 10.2 in 1987 which replaced 9.4 from 1983, which in turn had replaced 8.9 from 1954. Other mild minimum readings were 9.5 in 2007, 9.1 in 1994, 8.3 in 1909, 8.1 in 1958, 7.9 in 1882, 7.7 in 1974, 7.6 in 1972, 7.5 in 1920, 7.4 in  2011 and 2015.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -3.0 in 1995, (1798 was perhaps lower). Other cold values were -2.6 (1908), -1.8 (1892), -1.3 (1962), -0.2 (1961),  -0.1 (1985), 0.2 (1890), 0.7 (1939), 0.9 (1969), 1.0 (1907), 1.1 (1950), 1.2 (1927, 1964 and 2005), 1.3 (1965 and 1968), 1.4 (1976) and 1.5 (2000).

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -8.1 in 1892. (1798 was around -13). Other cold minima include -6.7 in 1961 and 1965, -6.5 in 1899, -6.4 in 1985, -6.3 in 1995, -5.7 in 1908, -5.3 in 1964, -5.0 in 1944, -4.6 in 1962, -4.2 in 1916, -4.0 in 1956 and -3.9 in 1887. 

The wettest 28th of December (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 14.60 mm (1978), followed by 12.51 mm (1934), and 9.86 mm (2007). 

The wettest week ending 28th December (22nd - 28th Dec) was 64.36 mm in 1978, followed by 53.72 mm (2012), 53.70 mm (1945), 51.92 mm (1979), 51.07 mm (1999) and 49.59 mm (2013).

The least amount falling in a week ending 28th December was 0.28 mm in 1992, then 0.55 mm in 2008, 1.00 mm in 1944, and 1.77 mm in 1940. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1995, a recent cold spell) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1995&maand=12&dag=28&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Bookmark

Edited December 30, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 4.9C bang on the 1991- 2020 average, Rainfall 94.6mm 108.1% of the monthly average.

Looks like rainfall will go above 100mm this month so the third month this year to do that. Temperatures wise landing zone looks to be 5.4C to 5.6C for us.

[The PIT]

14 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

We may not have had a December that was below average at all since 2010, but in actual fact, apart from 2015, notably mild Decembers have been scarce over the last 30 odd years.  The second warmest December since 1988 was in 2018 (6.9 CET), which just makes the top 20 (but not the top ten) along with four other Decembers with an equal CET; only two Decembers in the top 20 warmest in the last 33 years and only one in the top ten, is not very many compared to a number of other months in the year in the last 33 years.  For a top 20 December the CET would need to be over 6.8 (cannot see this figure being reached this month), and for a top ten December it would need a CET over 7.3.  

This December may make the low 6's CET by the month's end after adjustments, but it will still be a fair bit short of the top 20 warmest.

Interesting we've had several mild Decembers since 2010

Dec 2015  8.6C

Dec 2018  6.4C

Dec  2013 6.3C

Dec 2016  6.3C

 

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 27th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 7.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.9c on the 7th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 29th December

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.0 in 1987. This replaced 10.7 from 1925, which had replaced 10.1 from 1882 and 1916. Other high values included 10.7 in 2015, and 10.1 in 1882 and 1974, 10.0 in 1795, 9.6 in 1789 and 2018, and 9.4 in 1833 and 1842. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -4.9 in 1874. Other low daily means include -4.8 in 1908, -4.2 in 1798, -3.7 in 1783 and 1962, -3.6 in 1985 and 1995, -3.4 in 1819 and 1861, -3.1 in 1822 and 1870, -3.0 in 1788, and -2.8 in 1892. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 13.8 in 1925. Other mild days include 13.1 in 1987, 2006 and 2015, 13.0 in 1916, 12.1 in 1959 and 2018, 12.0 in 1904, 11.7 in 1882, 11.6 in 1966, 11.4 in 1897, and 11.3 in 1919. 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 10.9 in 1987 which replaced 9.8 from 1974, which in turn had replaced 8.5 from 1882. Other mild minimum readings were 8.3 in 2015, 8.2 in 1954 and 2012, 8.1 in 1994, 7.6 in 1925 and 1934, and 7.5 in 1918.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -4.0 in 1908, which was the lowest December value of the data interval; 25 Dec 1796 may have been as low as -6 or even -7 with its daily mean of -10.8. Other cold values were -0.5 (1890 and 1992), -0.1 (1962), 0.1 (1985 and 2000), 0.6 (1906 and 1950), 0.7 (1927), 0.8 (1995), 0.9 (1903 and 1939), and 1.3 (1889).

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -9.2 in 1964. Other cold minima include -7.9 in 1995, -7.5 in 1961 and 1892, -7.3 in 1985, -7.2 in 1962, -6.2 in 1965, -6.0 in 1903, -5.8 in 1887, -5.5 in 1908 and 1976, -5.2 in 1939, -4.7 in 1889, -4.5 in 1941 and 2005, -4.3 in 1944 and 1992, -4.0 in 2000, and -3.8 in 1996. 

The wettest 29th of December (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 15.92 mm (2002), followed by 15.71 mm (1986), 15.34 mm (1961), 14.10 mm (2009), 13.84 mm (2006), 11.34 mm (1965). 

The wettest week ending 29th December (23rd - 29th Dec) was 69.09 mm in 1978, followed by 53.80 mm (2002), 53.30 mm (1979), 52.02 mm (2013) and 51.91 mm (1994).

The least amount falling in a week ending 29th December was 0.28 mm in 1992, then 0.38 mm in 2008, and 0.98 mm in 1944. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1987, setting mild records) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1987&maand=12&dag=29&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited December 30, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 4.9C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 106.8mm 122.1% of the monthly average.

The landing zone for us is looking to be around 5.3C to 5.5C. A wee bit more rain to come so probably end up between 110mm and 115mm.

[Summer Sun]

6.0c to the 28th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 7.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.9c on the 7th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 30th December

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 11.0 in 1834. The highest value since then was 10.8 in 2015. Other high values included 10.7 in 1842, 10.0 in 1925, 9.8 in 1986, 9.7 in 1803, and 9.5 in 1876. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -6.1 in 1870. Other low daily means were -5.9 in 1788, -5.2 in 1908, -4.7 in 1874, -4.3 in 1783, -3.6 in 1892, -3.4 in 1785, -3.3 in 1822, -3.2 in 1813, and -2.8 in 1819, 1890, and 1962. The lowest value since 1978 was -1.8 in 1992 and 1995. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 13.3 in 2015 which replaced 12.3 from 2004, before that the record was 12.2 in 1901. Other mild days include 12.3 in 2017, 11.9 in 1934, 11.6 in 1987, 11.5 in 1921 and 11.4 in 1895. 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 9.1 in 1925. Other mild minimum readings were 8.6 in 1986, 8.3 in 2015, 7.7 in 1980, and 7.3 in 1904.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -1.7 in 1890. Other cold values were -0.2 (1892), 0.0 (1927), 0.2 (1962), 0.3 (1908), 0.5 (1906), 1.0 (1903), 1.1 (1907), 1.3 (1992), 1.4 (1978 and 1995) and 1.6 (1889, 1947 and 2000). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -10.7 in 1908. Other cold minima include -7.2 in 1939, -6.9 in 1892, -6.6 in 1985, -5.7 in 1962, -4.9 in 1992 and 1995, -4.1 in 1976 and 2005, -3.9 in 1927 and -3.8 in 1889, 1890.

The wettest 30th of December (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 17.74 mm (1948), followed by 14.86 mm (2015), 12.13 mm (1993), 12.05 mm (2005) and 10.00 mm (2002). 

The wettest week ending 30th December (24th - 30th Dec) was 65.91 mm in 1978, followed by 57.97 mm (2002), 55.94 mm (1994), 52.10 mm (1979) and 51.90 mm (2017).

The least amount falling in a week ending 30th December was 0.28 mm in 1992, then 0.34 mm in 2008, 0.94 mm in 1991, and 1.39 mm in 1944. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1908, setting cold minimum records) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1908&maand=12&dag=30&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe the weather just follows random and unpredictable paths, but even those might be subject to some analysis and therefore predictability. 

Have a look at this graph: 

What do you suppose this represents? 

I will provide the answer lower down out of sight if you want to ponder it for a moment. 

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

Well you probably figured it to be some sort of temperature series starting near the end of the last glacial and running through historical times to near the present. 

But actually, it is a graph of the frequency of non-prime odd numbers in equal portions of a constant grid, so the inverse of it is the frequency of prime numbers. The graph is smoothed slightly but shows that prime numbers are generated in a generally decreasing frequency (as the non primes gain more and more of the available odd numbers) but with interesting second-order waves that I am studying for cause, as I think it may have to do with the phenomenon of the spacing of the first few groups of prime numbers. Successive new prime numbers multiply through those lists to create new non-primes, so if they hit a lot of primes in a cluster then they score "non primes" more often. So in other words what looks like random chaos might have equations buried within it, but not cyclical in nature. There could be causes on one time scale and effects on different time scales. Whether this might be applicable to temperature forecast problems remains to be seen, I don't think anyone has worked on this sort of paradigm before in climate. It has always been assumed that if a driver has a certain periodicity, then the weather effects will also have that same periodicity. But what if a series of "hits" to the atmosphere at a rate of once every four years creates waves that ripple out once every six years, or once every (some algebraic function) years? That would mean that solutions might be buried in the mass of data but might require equations that allow time to be a variable. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5C +0.2C above average. Rainfall up to 110.3mm 126.1% of the monthly total.

Final landing zone looks to be between 5.3C and 5.5C

I think we can say the highest max for today has gone already 13.3C here.

Edited December 30, 2021 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 29th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 7.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.9c on the 7th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 31st December

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 11.1 in 1859. The highest value since 1940 is only 9.1 from 2004; this is the second lowest "modern" maximum in Dec or any month in the data series, the lowest in Jan is 9.3 for that era, and the lowest of all is 9.1 for 10 Feb (1941-present, a higher value occurred previously then also). Other high values included 10.6 in 1834, 10.4 in 1901, 10.3 in 1850, 10.0 in 1878, 9.7 in 1805 and 1876, 9.5 in 1915, and 9.3 in 1920 and 1934. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -7.1 in 1783. Other low daily means were -6.0 in 1799, -5.4 in 1870, -5.2 in 1874, -3.9 in 1819, -3.7 in 1927, -3.6 in 1846, -3.5 in 1978, -2.8 in 1886 and 1892, and -2.7 in 1811 and 1813. The lowest value since 1978 was -2.5 in 2008. Last year 2020 was -1.3. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 12.4 in 1920; since then, the highest has been 11.8 in 2006. Other mild days include 11.6 in 1915 and 1959, 11.4 in 1879 and 1916, and 11.2 in 1878 and 1901. 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 9.6 in 1901. Other mild minimum readings were 8.8 in 1878, 8.1 in 2018, 7.9 in 1934, 7.7 in 1895, 7.4 in 1980, and 7.3 in 2017.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -2.4 in 1978. (1783 may have been colder by 1-2 deg). Other cold values were -1.0 (1927), -0.8 (2008), -0.6 (1996), -0.3 (1886), 0.0 (1903 and 1961), 0.4 (1890), 0.7 (1969), 0.8 (1913), 0.9 (1892 and 1905), 1.0 (1962), and 1.1 (1888).

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -6.4 in 1892. (although 1783 likely around -9 or -10). Other cold minima include -6.3 in 1927, -5.7 in 1908, -5.2 in 1886, -4.6 in 1931, -4.5 in 1913 and 1978, -4.3 in 2000, -4.1 in 1890 and 2008, -3.9 in 2020 and -3.8 in 2001. 

The wettest 31st of December (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 15.01 mm (2000), followed by 14.18 mm (1976), 13.81 mm (2002), 12.41 mm (2003), 12.19 mm (1938), 12.07 mm (1948), 11.65 mm (1986), and 11.35 mm (1965). 

The wettest week ending 31st December (25th - 31st Dec) was 69.60 mm in 2002, followed by 57.44 mm (1978), 56.36 mm (1994), 55.03 mm (2017), and 52.14 mm (1979).

The least amount falling in a week ending 31st December was 0.29 mm in 1992, then 0.34 mm in 2008, 1.13 mm in 1991, 1.44 mm in 1969, and 1.54 mm in 1944. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1978, cold with a blizzard from a south-coast low overnight into NYD 1979) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1978&maand=12&dag=31&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.2C +0.4C above average. Rainfall up to 111.2mm 127.1% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 30th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 7.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 4.9c on the 7th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 1st January 

The almanac data will continue to appear in the Dec thread until 3rd Jan then go over to the January thread.

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.8 in 1851. The highest value since then was 10.7 in 1917 with 10.5 in 1916. Warmest since then was 9.8 in 2012. Other high values included 9.7 in 1825, 9.6 in 1880 and 1883, 9.5 in 1935 and 1960, and 9.3 in 1840 and 1988.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -5.9 in 1820. Other low daily means were -5.7 in 1786, -5.0 in 1800, -4.9 in 1962, -4.2 in 1795 and 1814, -3.9 in 1887, -3.8 in 1979, -3.6 in 1871, -3.3 in 1837. The lowest value since 1979 was -2.6 in 1997.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.1 in 2015. This replaced 13.0 from 1916. Other mild days include 12.7 in 1988, 12.4 in 1991, 12.2 in 1917, 12.0 in 1948, 11.7 in 1922, 11.6 in 1935 and 1976, 11.4 in 1883 and 11.3 in 1932.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.2 in 2012 which broke a record of 8.7 from 1960, before that the record had been 8.6 set in 1880 and tied in 1917. Other mild minimum readings were 8.0 in 1886 and 1916, 7.8 in 1883 and 7.5 in 1937.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.1 in 1962 (1820 may have been colder by 1-2 deg). Other cold values were -0.9 (1887), -0.7 (1997), -0.4 (1963), -0.1 (1893), 0.5 (1979), 0.6 (1974), 0.7 (1980), 0.8 (1946), 1.0 (1941), and 1.2 (1904 and 2009). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.6 in 1962 (although 1820 may have been slightly lower). Other cold minima include -8.1 in 1979, -6.8 in 1887, -6.5 in 2002, -5.1 in 1928, -4.5 in 1914 and 1997, -4.4 in 1932, -4.3 in 1893, -4.2 in 1945, -3.9 in 1971, with -3.6 a year ago in 2021.

The wettest 1st of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 16.75 mm (1991), followed by 16.69 mm (1998), 14.81 mm (2014), 14.03 mm (1988), 12.15 mm (1986), 11.88 mm (1959), 11.62 mm (1994), and 11.52 mm (2003). 

The wettest week ending 1st January (26th Dec - 1st Jan) was 73.30 mm in 2003, followed by 54.02 mm (1979), 52.00 mm (1995), 55.03 mm (2017), and 51.10 mm (1980).

The least amount falling in a week ending 1st January was 0.13 mm in 1993, then 0.61 mm in 1992, 0.81 mm (2009), 1.74 mm in 1970, 1.75 mm in 2019, 1.81 mm in 1955 and 2.13 mm in 1945. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1851, holding on to the highest daily mean until at least the end of today perhaps.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1851&maand=01&dag=01&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

Confirmed as 6.4c. Don't think anyone got it right.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[reef]

The mean temp of the last 11 years in December is now 6.1C, compared to the 1991-2020 average of 5.0C. We haven't had one below 4.8C (and as a result any below the average) since 2010 in fact.

Worth noting the annual mean of 10.26C is the lowest since 2013, mostly due to the cold April.

[Frigid]

December CET is the same as the April. Goes to show how unusually cold it was during that month. Very bizarre with it being cold and sunny, almost like a winter month.

Here, December had 1 frost. April had 12

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Ended up much milder with the last few days. Wonder how the rainfall finished ? It’s gotta be over 100mm.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker was at 102 mm after 30th, looks to have added perhaps 2 mm on 31st, will let you know tomorrow what the preliminary outcome is, 104-105 mm, most likely, and then on the 5th we get a final figure which can be up or down by 2-3 mm some months. 

For the CET, subject to verification by J10 in his scoring, the table of forecasts shows this result (and only two forecasts were warmer than the outcome, only one of which shows up in this top scoring list ...

 

PROVISIONAL TOP 15 SCORES for DEC 2021 CET (showing EWP forecasts and order of entry which separates ties)

Rank ___ Forecaster ________________ CET _ EWP

 

_ 1 ____ Richie3846 ( 54 ) __________ 6.3 __ ------ __

_ 2 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 62 ) __ 6.3 __ 77.6 __

_ 3 ____ syed2878 ( 21 ) ___________ 6.0 _ 120.0 __

_ 4 ____ freeze ( 34 ) _______________ 6.8 _ 110.0 _

_ 5 ____ Froze were the Days ( 47 ) _6.0 __ 85.0 _

_ 6 ____ Stationary Front ( 05 ) _____5.9 _ 132.0 _  

_ 7 ____ shillitocettwo ( 18 ) ________5.9 __ 59.0 __

_ 8 ____ Typhoon John ( 14 ) _______ 5.9 _ 115.0 _

_ 9 ____ stevew ( 28 ) _______________5.9 __ 82.0 _

_10 ___ Blast From the Past ( L1-2 )_5.8 _ 100.0_

_11 ____coldest winter ( 41 ) ________5.7 _ 121.4 _

_12 ____Kentish Man ( 44 ) __________5.6 __ ------ __

_13 ____DR(S)NO ( 17 ) ______________5.5 __ 85.0 __

_14 ____The PIT ( 31 ) _______________ 5.5 __ 70.0 __

_15 ____seaside60 ( 43 ) _____________5.4 _ 105.0 _

____________________________________________

Will wait for the final EWP on 5th before giving the list of best combined because there are a lot of forecasts quite close to the range that it might fall into, the provisional value may not hold up. At the moment, these are closest EWP forecasts:

(list refers to 105 mm as probable finishing EWP but that could change)

105 mm _ seaside60

103.6 mm _1991-2020 avg

102 mm_ Feb91Blizzard, Midlands Ice Age, davehsug

101 mm _ AWD

100.2 mm _ Polar Gael

100 mm _ John88b, Blast From The Past << >> 110mm _ Mapantz, freeze

 99 mm _ booferking

 98 mm _ SLEETY << >> 112 mm February1978

 97.4 mm _ 1981-2010 avg

 97 mm _ Emmett Garland

 96 mm _ Summer18

 95 mm _ Ed Stone, Mulzy, dancerwithwings << >> 115 mm Typhoon John

______________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 6.4c, December 2021 shares the same mean CET with December's:

1736

1821

1910

1994