100 Year Synoptics

[Robbie Garrett]

As per my post in the Models thread;  wondering if anyone could share the background signals that led to 2010?

Then the signals that are leading to 2022?

 

[summer blizzard]

The truth is that there is no one signal which led to Dec 10 and can be pulled out a hat (arguably 09/10 had a more obvious signal).

The La Nina was near record strength which is not normally considered a favourable factor (weak is preferred).

The QBO was positive, again not a factor typically conducive.

The primary factors which may have pointed to cold but would have been offset in expectations (i.e. expect average) are being close to solar minimum and the -PDO which may have allowed for a -AO at times.

Contrast to 09/10 which went into winter as solar minimum, -QBO and moderate El Nino. All factors condusive to stratospheric disruption. We did have a weak +PDO though.