December 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of 2023-24 contest year -- all welcome

[Frigid]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

It's unprecedented that June and September were the joint warmest months of the year.  Never happened before.   

Also that they were the warmest on record.. imagine having two months coldest on record in a single year.. crazy. 

[Roger J Smith]

I just edited the scoring tables posted back around 21st, so EWP scoring is official, CET will be confirmed or adjusted by J 10, these are based on table of entries so if I had any errors in your forecasts there, this table will have those errors. I hope not ... anyway congrats to Typhoon John for hitting this one "out of the park" and also virtualsphere for having both best EWP and best combined.

 

Results for DEC 2023 _ Now final _ based on 7.0 C and 161.3 mm

 

Ranks _____ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (Order of entry) ___ Best combined _____________ EWP scoring (pts, err)

CET EWP

_01 _ ---- ___7.0 __ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 11 ) ______________ ---

_02 _ 17 ___ 6.3 _ 108.0 __ davehsug ( 41 ) __________________19 ___ 4th best combined ___ 6.96 ___ 53.3 mm (17) 

_03 _ 01 ___ 6.0 _ 136.0 __ virtualsphere ( 6 ) ________________ 4 ___ best combined _______10.00 ___ 25.3 mm (1)

_04 _ 52 ___ 6.0 __ 50.0 __ syed2878 ( 16 ) ___________________56 ___ t21st best combined __ 0.19 ___111.3 mm (52)  

_05 _ ---- ___6.0 __ --- --- __ Froze were the Days ( 38 ) _______ --- 

_06 _ ---- ___5.9 __ --- --- __ Summer Sun ( 37 ) _______________ ---

_07 _ 36 ___ 5.8 __ 80.0 __ The PIT ( 18 ) _____________________ 43 ___16th best combined ___ 3.41 ____81.3 mm (t34)

_08 _ 29 ___ 5.8 __ 87.0 __ Reef ( 32 ) ________________________ 37 ___14th best combined ___ 4.56 ____74.3 mm (29)

_09 _ 13 ___ 5.7 _ 112.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 ( 27 ) ____ 22 ___t6th best combined ___ 7.72 ____49.3 mm (13)

_10 _ 40 ___ 5.6 __ 74.0 __ summer blizzard ( 20 ) ____________50 ___19th best combined ___2.47 ____87.3 mm (40) 

_11 _ 04 ___ 5.6 _ 129.0 __ noname_weather ( 39 ) ___________15 ___2nd best combined ___ 9.43 ____32.3 mm (4)

_12 _ 10 ___ 5.5 _ 118.0 __ chilly milly ( 13 ) __________________ 22 ___t6th best combined ___ 8.29 ____43.3 mm (10)

_13 _ 03 ___ 5.4 _ 130.0 __ Don ( 34 ) _________________________16 ___ 3rd best combined ___ 9.62 ____31.3 mm (3)

_14 _ 08 ___ 5.4 _ 120.0 __ J 10 ( 53 ) _________________________ 22 ___t6th best combined ___ 8.67 ____41.3 mm (8.)

_15 _ 09 ___ 5.3 _ 119.0 __ Feb1991blizzard ( 30 ) ____________24 ___10th best combined ___8.48 ____42.3 mm (9)

_16 _ 07 ___ 5.3 _ 121.5 __ snowray ( 40 ) ____________________ 23 ___ 9th best combined ___ 8.86 ____39.8 mm (7)

_17 _ 16 ___ 5.3 _ 110.0 __ seaside60 ( L1-2 ) _________________33 ___12th best combined ___7.03^___ 51.3 mm (t14)  

_18 _ 02 ___ 5.2 _ 135.0 __ Frigid ( 35 ) _______________________ 20 ___ 5th best combined ___ 9.81 ____26.3 mm (2) 

_19 _ 15 ___ 5.2 _ 110.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 ( 48 ) ___________34 ___13th best combined ___7.43 ____51.3 mm (t14) 

_20 _ 12 ___ 5.2 _ 114.0 __ February1978 ( 55 ) ______________ 32 ___11th best combined ___7.91 ____47.3 mm (12)

_21 _ 24 ___ 5.1 __ 96.0 __ moorlander ( 7 ) __________________ 45 ___t17th best combined __ 5.58 ____65.3 mm (24) 

_22 _ 47 ___ 5.1 __ 63.0 __ SteveB ( 10 ) ______________________ 69 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __1.14 ___ 98.3 mm (47)

_23 _ 22 ___ 5.1 __ 98.0 __ rwtwm ( 36 ) _______________________45 ___t17th best combined __5.98 ____63.3 mm (22) 

_24 _ 44 ___ 5.1 __ 67.0 __Mr Maunder ( 42 ) _________________ 68 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __1.71 ___ 94.3 mm (44)

_25 _ 31 ___ 5.0 __ 83.0 __ Bobd29 ( 3 ) _______________________ 56 ___t21st best combined ___4.18 ___78.3 mm (31)

_26 _ 35 ___ 5.0 __ 80.0 __ Earthshine ( 14 ) __________________ 61 ___ 25th best combined ___ 3.51 ___81.3 mm (t34) 

(27) _(17.6) _ 4.9 _ 106.3 _____ 1993-2022 average ___________ 44.6 __17th best combined ___6.86 ___55.0 mm (17.6)

_27 _ 27 ___ 4.9 __ 88.0 __ methuselah ( 5 ) __________________ 54 ___ 20th best combined ____4.98 ___73.3 mm (t27)

_28 _ 49 ___ 4.9 __ 59.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ____________ 77 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 0.76 __102.3 mm (49)

(29) (27) ___ 4.8 __ 88.0 _____ Consensus _____________________56 ___t21st best combined ____ 4.98 ___ 73.3 mm (t27) 

(29) (19.1) _ 4.8 _ 103.6 _____ 1991-2020 average ____________ 48.1__ 18th best combined ___ 6.55 ____57.7 mm (19.1)

_29 _ 50 ___ 4.8 __ 56.0 __ summer shower ( 28 ) _____________ 79 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 0.57 ___105.3 mm (50)

_30 _ ---- ___4.8 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley ( 45 ) __________________ ---- 

_31 _ 11 ___ 4.7 _ 115.0 __ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) ______________ 42 ___15th best combined ___ 8.10 ____46.3 mm (11)

(32) (22.4)_ 4.5 __ 97.4 _____ 1981-2010 average ______________ 54.4 __ 20th best combined __ 5.90 ____63.9 mm (22.4)

_32 _ 48 ___ 4.5 __ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 26 ) ________________________ 80_____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___0.95 ___101.3 mm (48.)

_33 _ 30 ___ 4.4 __ 85.0 __ Weather26 ( 2 ) _____________________ 63_____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___4.37 ___ 76.3 mm (30)

_34 _ 37 ___ 4.4 __ 77.0 __ Somerset girl ( 49 ) _________________ 71 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __ 3.04 ___ 84.3 mm (37) 

_35 _ 21 ___ 4.3 __ 99.0 __ Wold Topper ( 57 ) _________________ 56 ___t21st best combined ___ 6.18 ____62.3 mm (21)  

_36 _ 34 ___ 4.2 __ 80.0 __ John88b ( 8 ) ________________________70 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __ 3.61 ___ 81.3 mm (t34) 

_37 _ 41 ___ 4.2 __ 72.0 __ gazse9 ( 9 ) _________________________ 78 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __ 2.28 ___ 89.3 mm (t41)

_38 _ 28 ___ 4.2 __ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 17 ) ____________________66 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __ 4.88 ___ 73.3 mm (t27)

_39 _ 26 ___ 4.2 __ 90.0 __ Mulzy ( 46 ) _________________________ 65 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __ 5.18 ___ 71.3 mm (26)

(40) (26.5) _ 4.1 __ 89.1 ___ average of all data (CET, EWP) ___  66.5 ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ __ ___ ___ _ 5.09 ___ 72.2 mm (26.5)

_40 _ 32 ___ 4.1 __ 81.0 __ Alexis J9 ( 4 ) ________________________72 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 3.99 ___ 80.3 mm (t32) 

_41 _ 25 ___ 4.1 __ 95.0 __ Metwatch ( 44 ) _____________________66 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 5.38 ___ 66.3 mm (25)

_42 _ 20 ___ 4.0 _ 100.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 29 ) ______________________62 ___ 26th best combined __  6.38 ___ 61.3 mm (20) 

_43 _ ---- ___4.0 __ --- --- __ damianslaw ( 43 ) __________________ ----

_44 _ 51 ___ 3.9 __ 51.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 22 ) _________________ 95 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 0.38 ___110.3 mm (51)

_45 _ 39 ___ 3.9 __ 75.0 __ daniel* ( 56 ) ________________________84 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2.75 ___ 86.3 mm (t38.) 

_46 _ 38 ___ 3.8 __ 75.0 __ stewfox ( 12 ) _______________________ 84 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2.85 ___ 86.3 mm (t38.) 

_47 _ 18 ___ 3.8 _ 105.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 50 ) _____________ 65 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 6.77 ___ 56.3 mm (18.) 

_48 _ 33 ___ 3.7 __ 81.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 31 ) ______________ 81 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 3.89 ___ 80.3 mm (t32)  

_49 _ 53 ___ 3.6 __ 21.0 __ Neil N ( 21 )  _______________________ 102 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 0.00 ___140.3 mm (53) 

_50 _ 42 ___ 3.6 __ 72.0 __ Weather Observer ( 51 ) ____________ 92 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 2.18 ___ 89.3 mm (t41)

_51 _ ---- ___3.3 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( 54 ) _________________ ----

_52 _ 43 ___ 3.2 __ 71.0 __ jonboy ( 24 ) ________________________ 95 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 1.90 ___ 90.3 mm (43)

_53 _ 06 ___ 3.1 _ 124.0 __ godber 1 ( 52 ) _____________________ 59 ___24th best combined __ __ 9.14 ___ 37.3 mm (t5)

_54 _ 14 ___ 3.0 _ 110.0 __ Jeff C ( 1 ) ___________________________68 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 7.53 ___ 51.3 mm (t14)

_55 _ 45 ___ 2.9 __ 64.7 __ Roger J Smith ( 23 ) ________________ 100 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___1.52 ___ 96.6 mm (45)

_56 _ 46 ___ 2.8 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front ( 25 ) _____________ 102 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 1.33 ___ 97.3 mm (46)

_57 _ 19 ___ 2.8 __104.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 58) __________________ 76 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ____ ___ 6.58 ___ 57.3 mm (19) 

_58 _ 05 ___ 2.4 _ 124.0 __ prolongedSnowLover ( 47 ) ________ 63 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 9.24 ___ 37.3 mm (t5)

_59 _ 23 ___ 2.0 __ 96.5 __ Polar Gael ( 15 ) ____________________ 82 _____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 5.78 ___ 64.8 mm (23)

 

note: ranks for error are in brackets after EWP error. No CET scoring info is contained, just ranks from table of entries. Late penalty jogs not used here, and will work out in CET scoring tables. Assume a drop of one rank per late day relative to rank indicated here. ... EWP scores affected by late penalties are shown with ^ symbol. If rank is pushed down, this is indicated by "level" which will also be reflected in error rank (those are not adjusted for late days). Error ranks are also tied for entries in different order. 

also note: best combined total ranks are shown for all entrants, but are ranked only for top 25. 

also note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. 

 

Edited January 6 by Roger J Smith

[LetItSnow!]

21 minutes ago, Frigid said:

2023 is basically 2022 without the extremes. No extreme heat, no extreme cold. Incredible how the yearly CET is basically the same.

I do wonder if we'll ever see a year in the 9s, an incredible feat these days. Thought 2021 could be the one, but of course the second half was mild. A 10-10.5C year will be decidedly cool from now on, given we've seen two 11C years back to back.

I think 9 years and even 8 years will still be possible but the pressure to achieve one gets harder and harder each decade, especially with the latter. The annual C.E.T. from 1994 to 2021 was rather static apart from the cold blip from 2008-2013 (which apart from 2010, weren't even cold), so where we go in the next couple years will interest me. Along with the obvious drivers, the potential unusual impact from the water vapour (I thin) from the volcano in early 2022 may have contributed to excess warmth globally and if that's the case then that would have been an added factor - and unusually hot seas in our vicinity leading to warmer westerlies. This is a complete flip to 2015 when we had an anomalously cold Atlantic and how the winter of 2014/2015 was the most westerly on record but not overly mild + how the summer was very cool at times. That shows me that in a warming world, we will still get moments like that happening, at least for a while. Nonetheless, two 11C years in a row when they were once deemed almost impossible to get is absolutely and monumentally important - and freaky to the point of anxiety! Perhaps the added residual warmth will fade and we'll see some more normal years to follow. We're at a pivotal point in climate history and we're living it day by day!

[WYorksWeather]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I think 9 years and even 8 years will still be possible but the pressure to achieve one gets harder and harder each decade, especially with the latter. The annual C.E.T. from 1994 to 2021 was rather static apart from the cold blip from 2008-2013 (which apart from 2010, weren't even cold), so where we go in the next couple years will interest me. Along with the obvious drivers, the potential unusual impact from the water vapour (I thin) from the volcano in early 2022 may have contributed to excess warmth globally and if that's the case then that would have been an added factor - and unusually hot seas in our vicinity leading to warmer westerlies. This is a complete flip to 2015 when we had an anomalously cold Atlantic and how the winter of 2014/2015 was the most westerly on record but not overly mild + how the summer was very cool at times. That shows me that in a warming world, we will still get moments like that happening, at least for a while. Nonetheless, two 11C years in a row when they were once deemed almost impossible to get is absolutely and monumentally important - and freaky to the point of anxiety! Perhaps the added residual warmth will fade and we'll see some more normal years to follow. We're at a pivotal point in climate history and we're living it day by day!

I think years in the 8s are now so rare as to count as virtually impossible. There have only been seven since 1950, and only one (2010, 8.9C) since 1987. And in every case, those years were above 8.5 (last year below 8.5 was 1892). 2010 was 14 years ago, so would have crept into the 9s if it happened today.

So, given what we know, I think we can say with a high degree of certainty that similarly cold years now would all be in the 9s. I think the only way to get a year in the 8s now would be some sort of disaster, like the eruption of a very large volcano with significant stratospheric SO2 injection, an asteroid impact, or a nuclear winter (though the science on nuclear winters is now somewhat discredited I believe?). So the probability is not zero, but I'd go so far as to say 'effectively zero without external forcing'.

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ends up 160.1 -- will wait for final value 5 Jan before editing error portion of scoring table. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP table value 161.3 mm, scoring adjusted. 

14th wettest Dec, close to wettest if month had been 3 Dec to 2 Jan. 

Annual 1193.7 mm is just below 6th wettest 1960 (1195.0) and as tables are continually adjusted for several months, too soon to say if 2023 will end up 6th or 7th. Oct to Dec values can all change in next few months and this annual total is not finalized yet. (same applies to Dec but this was last call for contest scoring). 

Edited January 5 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

Summaries Dec 2023 Summary.pdf Dec 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Excel Dec 2023 CET.xlsx

December figures finally ready. Note I have allowed both entries slightly after midnight to pass without penalty points. So only 1 entry this month with any penalty points.

Monthly

Confirming the figures by Roger above, a clear win by Typhoon John this month.

Seasonal and Overall figures

The top 3 in both competitions. Typhoon John, davehsug and virtualsphere

 

[Weather-history]

4th December 2023-3rd January 2024 CET was something like 7.8°C