Ben_Cambs
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Isn't the NAE just showing the weak front passing through; the precursor to the cold weather following?
Yes.
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Evening all.
Been away for a few days and only really catching up on the model output. The window of potential snow at the moment appears to from Saturday - Monday, an easterly veering north-easterly, maybe a little earlier than that for the far SE i.e Kent. Perhaps thereafter HP to our north becoming more dominant and shunting the E/NE'ly flow into the continent. As ever, changes from run to run though for the time-being Kent is best placed to see snow.
One more fine and sunny day tomorrow before a continental flow takes hold on Wednesday.
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Morning all, a nice start to the day here with a few sunny breaks and a breeze. Currently 6.4C.
I think we can safely say it's going to turn colder next week, for example ECM 0z ensemble mean at T+120 as us in a ENE'ly flow:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1201.gif
However of course big differences between the models on how cold it will be, snow risk etc, that will vary from run to run.
Really sorry to hear about your loss JP. Hope you are ok. Also like to wish Lollypop's mother a speedy recovery aswell.
Kind regards,
Ben.
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Morning all,
A wet night and the temperature is now up to 6.8C. Next few days look to be quiet weather-wise with temperatures around 8-9C and mainly dry + cloudy.
As for this morning's model output, UKMO and ECM maintaining the height rises over Scandinavia in just under a week's time drawing in an E/NE'ly flow. The charts Steve posted are classic winter synoptics! Love to see something like that verify. ECM ens in good agreement at T+144 and T+168 about the height rises next week:
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1441.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif
GFS still only slowly edging towards the European models, though is slowly getting there..
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A few flurries of snow here a couple of hours ago. Second band of PPN over NW England/N Wales will provide a spell of rain overnight...
GFS 18z coming out now, certainly the GFS has inched towards the European model solution during the course of today. Expecting for the GFS to continue to edge closer (slowly) towards the European models tomorrow.
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2.3C with a DP of -5.8C here Steve, highest the temperature has been all day. Some PPN on my door-step according to the radar.
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Morning all,
Got down to around -3C earlier this morning but cloud cover is increasing from the west.
There does seem to be a trend from the European models in particular to build an area of HP close to, or just north of the UK, with the main Atlantic trough backed way out west towards Greenland. For example the ECM 0z ens mean at T+144 and T+168:
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1441.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif
NAEFS ( I believe a blend of the N.American models) anomalies @ T+144 with a signal of HP centred off Norway:
http://176.31.229.22...-0-0-144.png?12
GFS eventually builds HP in a latter timeframe compared to the European models. The location/orientation of the HP will determine what weather we recieve, either cold/cool or dry, mild or dry and potential sunshine amounts.
I believe the GFS 0z with its longer lasting mobile pattern is unlikely to verify. It's a possibility, though completely against the other two main models which have arguably performed better in the medium range this winter.. UKMO and ECM 0z both have colder easterly winds developing with the risk of snow increasing as the runs progress, which does also remain a possibility (stronger possibility than GFS IMO). I do believe the most likely scenario for this time next week is for an area of HP to build just to the north of the UK IMO, though with winds coming from the east if this does occur it would probably be a cloudy high for most. As per ECM and UKMO this morning, potential for retrogression of the HP to allow colder weather to filter in from the east.
In the meanwhile, some transient snow possible for some of us tonight, particularly the further north and west you are in the region. Then a few milder days with temperatures up to 9-10C with windier conditions than of late, but not too much rainfall other than tonight/tomorrow.
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Can someone please translate what they are talking about on the Mod Thread. Are they saying we are up for another cold/snowey spell before long?
I'd say its a possibility in the longer term, but I believe the more likely scenario is for cool/cold and dry weather for the second half of February with HP building close to the UK IMO.
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I agree, I can't see how the ECM is a cold outlier when there's runs in the ensemble suite colder than the operational! Granted the ECM operational is on the colder side of the ensembles towards the end of the run, but it's not a cold outlier.
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Nice photos MKSA!
Sadly it was a non-event here with snow melting readily once it had reached the ground. The temperature never really feel below 1C which didn't help aswell as the lack of any moderate-heavy PPN to help bring the temperatures down. Had a bit more snow this morning which only stuck on a few surfaces and again melted fairly quickly.
Maybe some transitional snow possible on Wednesday evening, as milder air returns from the Atlantic.
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Light sleet here in Godmanchester, we have those "new" white streetlamps here, dont think they are as good as the old orange ones!
Luckily I still have the orange streetlamps nearby my house! Don't know for how much longer though, the longer the better!
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Feels very raw outside! Currently 2.4C with a DP of 0.1C + wind chill of near -2C. Some flakes of snow falling now too.
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Temp: 3.9C (earlier max 4.8C)
DP: 2.6C
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Morning all, hope your having a good weekend!
Not expecting snow here until this evening (if the precipitation is around!), as temperatures/DP's slowly drop through the day due to the colder airflow off the continent. Suppose it's really down to radar-watching/nowcasting now.
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Evening all. Been trying to keep up with developments today wrt Sunday/Monday and to be honest it probably won't be until tomorrow evening until we have a decent idea of likely track/orientation/shape of the low, a good point made by several members that the low hasn't actually formed yet. Hopefully it will develop in such a way to bring more of the region into play than currently shown by the models.
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Evening all. A fairly strong breeze from the NW/NNW today with a couple of wintry showers, mainly a sleety mix, some sunnier periods at times during the day.
Having taken a look at the models, very fine margins over possible snow on Sunday, any shift west or east (GFS 18z has shifted the low slightly further west compared to GFS 12z for example) is going to make a big difference to whether a few, some or all of us will see rain or snow.
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hi ben
check the raw fax at 144
that is very snowy
bottom right hand chart and under cold uppers with a strong easterly wind
and note these have been pretty good lately
Nice find John! Decent charts in the offing for the weekend and beginning of next week. Would be very nice to see a spell of heavy snow showers moving off the North sea!
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Undoubtedly will change as we progress closer to Sunday, but ECM PPN charts (go out to T+132) highlight potential for some of us to see some snow on Sunday:
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/130205_1200_126.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/130205_1200_132.png
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If you look at ECM and UKMO at T+144:
UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif
They aren't too dis-similar from eachother, even at this timeframe. But compared to GFS:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png
Barely a sign of an easterly flow on the GFS. Signs that in the past few runs GFS has moved closer towards the ECM+UKMO solution, hopefully the GFS will continue in the next few runs in its movement towards the European model's solution.
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Nice ECM at T+144 aswell! Certainly the possibility of some frontal snow at some point this weekend, most likely Sunday (going off the 3 main models), and then maybe some snow showers into the start of the new working week.
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Epic fail Ben. The precipitation has just reached Nw London and its snow, blowing in horizontally in the strong winds as well.
In all fairness I was referring to the band over Stoke, if that band reaches here it will be rain. Should of made that clearer in my previous post!
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That band of exceptionally heavy snow stretching from Manc to Sheffield, any likelyhood that is going to reach the London area?
If that band of PPN does reach London, it will be rain, not snow due to the milder uppers that have followed behind the front that is passing through the region.
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On a separate note, a very nice chart from UKMO at T+144! :
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013020512/UW144-21.GIF?05-17
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Heavy, wet snow falling here, though not really sticking as expected. However, the temperature is dropping in response to the heavy PPN.
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 19th February 2013
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Ben_Cambs
Afternoon all,
A wonderful day here with clear blue sky, currently 7.2C, after a sharp frost this morning with a minimum of -4.8C. Certainly noticing daffodils, tulips and crocuses beginning to shoot up through the ground. Sadly the last day of this nice spell of weather with a much cloudier continental flow taking hold by tomorrow.
A cold few days to come from tomorrow onwards, with temperatures struggling, maximums of 2-3C for many and much cloudier of late so I don't think there will be much difference between the daytime maximums and night minima. Certainly the risk of some light snow come the weekend though nothing too substiantial from the models (at the moment), Kent still best placed to see snow this weekend.
Does seem to be a trend from the models for HP to build at the start of next week, for example ECM ensemble mean at T+168 shows this quite well:
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif
NAEFS at T+168 has a large height anomaly to the north of the UK:
http://176.31.229.22...-0-0-168.png?12
So maybe a return of the conditions we are currently experiencing next week.