snowking

I tell you what guys, if there is a snow event on thursday i reccomend carrying out a psychological investigation There must be some sort of formula that will let us know the exact time before an event that depression sets in on this place before the events even happened! Seriously, anyone would think noddy had been shot SK

Im fairly confident there will be nearer 10cms from that band, your looking at a good 3 hours or so of rather heavy snowfall, added to showers which will push well inland tomorrow SK

SK

Nice covering here now, snow starting to ease off Im loving the look of the banding of the snow towards east anglia currently if the current W-E flow continues SK

Snowing moderately here now 0c/-5c SK

Yep, dont pay such close attention to every white blob on the bbc map, its an estimation to show a general overview of what will happen. In that forecast she didnt go beyond 1500 either SK

its all moving westwards just 5 miles to the north of cheltenham at the moment however logically thinking about it this isnt such a bad thing, if the clear skies now continue until sundown with a gradual frost before the showers forming slightly more on the southern flank of the mass of precip hits here probably around 7-8pm tonight then the accumulations can begin hopeful but possibly wise thinking id like to say SK

Yes very dry snow here, that can be attributed to the very low dews currently -5c here with temp of 2.7c SK

Snowing on and off here lightly, we're right on the edge of the precip and now for some reason it wants to start heading direct W as opposed to WSW it had been heading in But showers now forming across east anglia meaning if it carries on heading W its in our 'snowline' Tomorrow will be quite a day SK EDIT: Black clouds now heading in and the first decent sized flakes now falling

Snow heading steadily this way too, should be here before 2pm, though accumulations might be a bit optimistic at this stage SK

Yep james i can confirm to you its snow here too fella The flakes are picking up in size from time to time to give light snow flurries i think we can class them as now Ive also been doing a bit of geography (scary stuff) and although we of course have the huge land mass, the best direction for snow from here is either E or SE....the reason being the cotswolds shelter us from the S and W, and the welsh mountains cover most of the stuff to our north If we see that band tomorrow making it at least 20 miles to our west then some rather large totals are on the horizon i feel SK

The others of you in cheltenham stick your heads out the window and you should find a nice suprise VERY light snizzle here, flakes are that small you cant see them through a window (at least not mine because someone doesnt clean them ) 1.2c with dew of -4 SK

Not if i get there first :blush: I have a bucket load of audio to edit before wednesday, im going to have to try and get it all done monday afternoon somehow between house hunting and fixing the studio i think. Certainly looks as though tuesday morning will be the time to get up there, although perhaps even monday evening if i can hitch a lift off somebody Ill certainly be getting the new batteries out for the camera SK

My 1000th post will be a simple one I think people doubting snowfall need to remember the very showery nature of the stream being set up, any NWP's barring perhaps the NMM are far too ow res to predict showers Being that we are under the influence of low pressure too there is not the issue of showers dying out as they cross the country. Add to this south of the pennines there is no real shelter from higher ground to the east of central and western areas and you have the formula for some serious totals The situation is such that a lot of areas are likely to end up with similar amounts. Whilst the east has more precip, its also here where during monday and into tuesday things may become far more marginal, where as further west its likely to remain as snow until well into tuesday Of course though it will largely be a case of nowcasting, as is the case with most showery streams SK

Infact areas closest in proximity to the warm sector, without being directly inside it, are likely to recieve the heaviest precipitation SK

Monday evening and overnight will be the one to watch for now with any certainty, bands of snow will cross the country from the east, and are infact more likely i would have thought to peak across central southern england and central midlands with a little overland convection available from the increasing solar strength during the day (allbeit still rather weak) Tuesday could go down in the history books depending on what occurs with the warm sector. However, that will be uncertain until monday evening i feel.....by which point we should begin to see the snow being measured by the inch rather than the cm... and no thats not due to an attack by an imperialist organisation SK

Just had a text from back home on Essex/Herts border Apparantly theyve been having snow flurries this morning with some fairly large flakes Very suprising just how much the cold has stuck around in the SE

Light snow for the last hour or so after snizzle all day Covered all surfaces, even the roads which had been gritted, obviously far too early on, only about 0.5cm but very icy out 0.5c SK (Cheltenham)

Its a shame really that those charts at this range are as useful as a chocolate teapot really isnt it :lol: Id call 2-3 inches perhaps, but those charts are far too low res to forecast with accuracy at this range Id stick to the BBC forecast updates, the data they use is far more high res that anything freely available Kris

Well the 12z brings the PVA associated with tonight front further east still, if the 18z carries on this process, then the likes of west cambs, the home counties and london could well be in the firing line for a while http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs157.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs187.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs217.gif

A couple of hail showers here so far along with a rain shower just before Temperature at 7c, and from the looks of the radio some nice organised bands forming Kris http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVA89.png 12z Analysis out now Looks like the fella thats gonna cause all the fun and games tonight just into the north of scotland now? Or it may be the one further afield adjacent to iceland currently The colder air should be filtering through to the whole country in the next few hours, and certainly complete by nightfall Kris

This is what the GFS has been showing too, along with the BBC forecast, but as i mentioned earlier its only really when it heads south of the M4 corridoor that it spread eastward Kris

Im a little confused to say the least, but thats nothing new If my memory serves me correctly sunderland were at home that day, because the blizzard onset during the match Kris EDIT: An article about the match http://www.sunderlandecho.com/sport/Match-...joke.1433629.jp

Looking at the current track it seems to spread eastwards once its south of the M4, id dare say surrey could be the eastern extent of the snowfall, but north of the M4 id say the furthest east will be oxfordshire Kris

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs097.gif The small streak of positive vorticity showing just why that precipitation across the yorks/lancs border currently is so intense. It also roughly shows the track it will take Look at what happens at 1200 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs127.gif I think by then it will be too warm away from higher ground, but lets wait and see