john pike

hi jayces sorry mate a bit grumpy this morning the reason i do not post in the main model thread is because i would rather stick with trying to read the charts for the south east i do ramp up the good charts but i do try to back up what i have said this is a good reason to use the charts as a guide and follow the fax charts as they seem more accurate i still expect the south east to benefit from the weaker atlantic and jet going south http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0&carte=0 i will still show good charts but i will update with the fax charts later and hopefully will show the pesky low go south which is causing all the problems

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif i will update later if people disagree with the charts that are posted please post your point of view instead of criticising when they change overnight

hello yamkin i have not seen the weather forecasts but i will do tomorrow as they should have the updated version by then and it will be interesting to see their pressure charts for monday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png massive potential from the east http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0 just for yamkin http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png some more members picking up on colder option http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif fax charts are starting to show the low pressure heading south also the jet stream is also going south again once the models pick up on weak atlantic,jet stream going south low heading south of us i would expect to see some very good runs showing up by thursday or friday the odd thing is on the fax chart we have the 528 dam line over us which will start to cool down the temperatures even with the SW wind next 2 days will be very interesting watching the models and to be honest i feel the cold air will win but we just need a couple of more days to firm it up

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gem/run/gemnh-0-144.png nice low running south of us

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3722.png :smiliz19: just for fun http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif 2 large low pressure http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif 2 low pressure systems 1 average 1 small http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif 2 large low pressure systems appear the charts tonight really seem all over the place even the fax charts look odd which is strange my opinion is that the atlantic will not be as strong as shown and if any low pressure systems do appear they will probably head south below us as the jet stream looks to head south around the 12th onwards let see what the ensembles show shortly

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogapsnh-0-180.png?08-18 will update 18z charts and fax i will bet 18z shows x rated charts tonight :smiliz19:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif low pressure in the atlantic is probably why the charts are still confusing http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png the charts are confusing again but if you look at the fax chart and the the gfs charts you can see some sort of possible scenario http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 this is better and hopefully correct this merits a

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif :smiliz19: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif very quiet in here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png surprisingly gfs is not an outlier http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentraleGFSforecast.htm look at 300 and 312 long way out but worth seeing

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-1-144.png?06-11 if you weaken the atlantic i think we can see where this would be heading anyway lets see how we look later night all

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rngp1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rgem1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png i think it is best to wait for monday to see if anything agrees the fax chart and the met office chart have high pressure to our south east whereas the rest have low pressure this will make the outlook different on all of these i still think the models are overcooking the atlantic just to cheer everyone up http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png and this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.png i bet this all changes again monday

hi yamkin and jaycee sorry should have made my other post a little clearer the reason i am following the fax charts is to check the trends are there and at the moment everything shows further west on the fax charts which is good tonight should give a very good clue to the upcoming cold spell http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-1-144.png?06-11 probably a little progreesive but should look similar on the fax chart tonight for the 13th http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentraleGFSforecast.htm run through these and you probably would be hard pushed to find a colder set of charts for february http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= control run and gfs agree in fi more runs needed but

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png the 13th is when the gfs ensembles become scattered i would expect these to start to drop either tomorrow or on monday the fax charts will show the 13th tomorrow night and hopefully that will give us a much clearer idea still looking good though

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=gfsh500;sess= look at t168 then look at http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif then this http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif to my eye the fax charts have high pressure further west over the uk plus high pressure seems to show in more favourable positions i think by tomorrow night we could potentially see winds coming from east-south east as early as next thursday on the fax charts the low in the atlantic should get held back and hopefully will only be able to undercut the high pressure over us which should make things interesting :smiliz19:

i saw it :smiliz19: see you again later for the 18z although i am more interested in the fax charts john

hello yamkin http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-1-2-240.png?0 another piece in the jigsaw

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif hello yamkin chart you posted not a million miles from this still agree regarding too much energy in the atlantic fax charts later should be interesting

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&archive=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 hi yamkin watch the motion of the charts it clearly shows the east gradually pushing in towards us gfs i feel is still giving the atlantic too much power for this time of year this is the date to watch when it gets in the more reliable timeframe who will win the left corner or the right corner http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/ watching the fax charts shows the low in the atlantic not making much ground but we are 4 days away to tell by the fax charts how this will look still better to see this and not atlantic driven charts :smiliz19:

hi snowy wait for 12z i still think the atlantic is being overcooked

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1 gfs looks on the warmer side on the london ensembles http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png these look disappointing but i bet they look different again tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png this is where i feel the atlantic will quieten down and the cold pool to the east will push the high pressure to the west models are getting interesting

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&archive=0 not ramping :smiliz19: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 still not ramping :smiliz23: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/ we need to watch the low in the atlantic over the next couple of days showing on here http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif i expect it to stall and get pushed back which will let the easterly pattern set in we still need a few days for the fax charts to show this then i will start ramping i am surprised how quiet it is in here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2642.png not ramping but :smiliz19:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png