john pike

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel2401.html can you work out the 23rd from this???

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/bom/run/bom-0-240.png long way out but to lighten the mood :smiliz19:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif if you look to the west we have the 528 dam line coming towards the uk on the sunday fax chart http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=seatemps;sess= sea temperatures look below average be interesting to see what the fax charts show on wednesday and thursday night http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= ensembles still have a big scatter from 18th so still no real answers there yet i still think people are writing off winter too quick

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= i think uncertain comes to mind here a change looks like happening from 17th-18th to cooler weather but more runs needed to get a clearer picture http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/ going by the fax charts it certainly looks wet and windy up to saturday in about 2 days time we should get a better idea of the outlook as the fax charts will show the 17th by then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110109/18/288/prectypeuktopo.png just for fun :smiliz19: or maybe a trend ??? ensembles could be interesting tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png still showing a cool down from the 17th i will have the kontroll please :smiliz19:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3002.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3242.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn32417.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png just for fun but keep an eye on these

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= more colder members showing from 16th onwards long way out but worth keeping an eye on

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-1-384.png?18 just for fun

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= interesting ensemble for london could be interesting for us 9th to 11th there is still a big spread of temperatures after the 11th so it still looks like a very uncertain period after that however in fi there seems to be more colder options showing http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/ fax charts have improved showing 528 dam over the uk on monday if everything moved further west these charts would be http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html met office still keeping the warnings up i am not commenting on this because i do not have a clue

hello yamkin i agree with you about exciting times ahead the charts are still unsure where this low is going look at the ensembles http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= very rare we see confusion so close look at the blue line( Control run) that would make gfs look mild i think friday could cause a few surprises and we will not know until right at the last minute a question for you yamkin do you remember before the last cold spell the models had a load of problems with a low coming in and got it wrong do you not think this seems similar john

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-348.png?18 long way off but could not help myself fi showing a classic easterly http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120.gif 528 dam line definately showing further south on sundays fax chart could be some twists and turns in the models yet

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= i think i will wait for tuesdays charts to come out have a look at London ensembles i think something is brewing as the charts at present seem to have serious disagreement from the 7th this could go either way but knowing this winter anything could happen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtml should help http://geography.about.com/od/physicalgeography/a/gulfstream.htm so should this

fax charts still consistant with last night but still uncertain how close this low will be to us over friday afternoon-evening. the saturday and sunday charts look fairly cold with easterly winds still showing.The charts do not show much precipitation but convention could build up due to the slightly warmer sun. overnight temperatures look very cold friday night onwards. i will do another update on the fax charts tomorrow and hopefully they will stay consistant. john

if you look at the fax charts http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html they show an easterly starting on thursday which looks dry on friday the winds look north westerly but still cold with wintery showers look to the noth east where a low has developed saturday shows an easterly again with showers nearby and the air out to the east looks cold with the 510 dam line getting fairly close friday night could be interesting if the low showing friday morning heads towards the south east. i have been following the fax charts and the seem to be fairly consistant lately.be interesting to see where the 510 dam line ends up tomorrow when sundays chart will be showing i do not think the cold weather has given up yet john

the london ensembles look in fair agreement for a cool down from 3rd March onwards http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess= t48 fax chart http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ukmomod;sess= shows the centre of the low pressure closer to the south east uk than last nights fax so a little more concerning. think we will have to nowcast this storm and although i enjoy stormy conditions i think i would prefer to see this storm move away from us.

if you look at the fax charts t60 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack1a.gif low pressure heading close t72 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif centre of low pressure (looks like 980) is in the Channel between south east uk and France. t96 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif shows low pressure moved away very quick although see the 528 dam line across the uk t120 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif shows the 528 dam line moving towards the Midlands this also shows another low pressure system coming in from the South West which if it goes below the uk could turn the winds Easterly from thursday onwards next week although whether this would be dry due to high pressure being close to the uk is too far out to say. the storm for Sunday according to these charts would be gusty for South coasts and the South East at the moment but a movement of 100 miles either way would make a huge difference and still needs watching. watching this storm develop will be interesting as it could be a forcasters nightmare and could end up being a now cast scenerio. thats how i see it now and i bet it will be totally different tomorrow john

hi yamkin Another Croydon member it looks like the forcasts are going by the fax charts http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html these show dry conditions on saturday and sunday however look at monday as this would be a great chart for snow over the south east. these charts will probably look different again tomorrow but hopefully monday will stay the same john

18z looks good for a few days from what i can see from fri 19th East areas may get some light snow in the evening.Sunday 21st South East should see light snow showers. Monday 22nd shows a Channel low which might give some heavier snow for a time which should be around until Tuesday morning. This could all change by the morning. The only concern is that the 18z is showing the jet come to life around the 28th although this is a long way off. This is my first attempt at this so lets see what happens lets hope i am not doing this later. john

thanks for the welcome enjoy your snow in kent metoffice radar looks like showers pushing slightly further inland so might get some more here soon got to go to bed as have to be up early night all

my first post on here but been on site for a while now just started snowing again and could be a bit more going by radars if it does not peter out. are you still on snowbob?