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And do you honestly think the vastly experienced forecasters at the METO don't know that and quite a lot more?
Despite their multi million pound supercomputers and multi million pound wage bill, even I couldve helped them make their red warning early enough to actually have some more usefulness by preventing commuters leaving the house if theyd just phoned me at 6 am. At 8.15 am the wind had peaked south of Glasgow.
Not impressed at all.(again)
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Winds getting back up here now and in a sleet blizzard at the mo.
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My wee house survived a sting jet. Yahhhoooo!! My nearest weather station drumalbin had sustained 66 and gust 95 and I made it thru without losing a slate .
Must be all the practice :-s
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Lorry over on the kingston bridge. Lucky it didnt go over the side as its not the widest motorway bridge.
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Under red now
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Thank god this things travelling north east and not east. Worst of the winter so far here.
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Gettin pretty bad here now.
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Do public service organisations use the presence (or otherwise) of a given level of met warning as a trigger to initiate certain levels of readiness?
Im fairly sure they do and if it is indeed the case then the appointment of an appropriate alert level to a given area has more connotations than joe public bringing in the garden gnomes.
Note .. This is not a comment on the accuracy of the alerts issued however I am often critical of this when I compare it with what I see going on on the ground.
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Looks like standard storm number 6 of winter 2011/2012 for us up ere. Sigh....
Still, if it keeps the snow away I'll take it anyday.
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So many storms this year - am sick fedup of listing to wind howling and whistling in the chimney
Couldnt agree more. This is the fourth major storm round me in as many weeks. What I wouldnt give for a month of non-weather.
Was just beginning to enjoy a spell of quiet weather.
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I wonder how many people in mindanao privince in the Phillipines like extreme weather today after recent events!
I also think theres a lot of people round the world would laugh at us UK softies for claiming we have ANY extreme weather whatsoever.
Like I said before, having skin in the game makes all the difference.
I bet the vast majority of little boys who ended up fighting and dying in WW1 or WW2 liked guns and tanks and war when they were kids. Those who were lucky enough to survive knew the truth that theres nothing good about it at all even though its exciting to the observer.
As I say, we in the UK will probably never see truly extreme weather on our doorstep and if any of us are ever unfortunate enough to do so then they will probably spend the rest of their life praying they never see it again.
Imagine we were all in a forum for famine enthusiasts getting excited about the hunger pangs we get in the UK when we skip our lunch.
Whether its hunger or weather, finding minor deviations from the benign interesting and exciting is harmless fun but true extremes are a different matter altogether.
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Haha! but i don't trust them about the forecasting anyway.
Hehe entertainment too
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Got an inch of snow here already
. pants -
Nice and still and quiet in Ayrshire. Nice to be at the quiet end for a change
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Well a week ago this storm was shaping up to be a real beast with 100mph gusts over northern and central areas! Now it's turned into a potential snow event for some and a damp squib for others!
Exactly, and whatever happens is what was always going to happen.
This has shown how far out of reach long range weather prediction really is when the situation gets above a complexity threshold even having computers like the NOAA Jaguar supercomputer at Oak Ridge to crunch the numbers.
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It was a joke.....
I was thinking though about things we disregard as anomolies. What if they really have happened like that (obviously not something totally unrealistsic) within the realms of possibility?
A tornado out at sea?
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Wind slowly abating here now and no snow at 190 asl either. Happy days.
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Four or five days before the storm struck, forecasters had predicted bad weather on the following Thursday or Friday. By midweek, however, guidance from
guidance from weather prediction models was somewhat equivocal. Instead of stormy weather over a considerable part of the UK, the models suggested that severe weather would reach no farther north than the english channel and southern coast of britain
(about the great storm of 1987)
I spent the night of the great storm in a barrack block all by myself in RAF Locking near Weston Super Mare. What a noisy night that was and I didnt even know what was going on at the time.
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Be nice to have some calmer weather after these storms, today has been another very windy one, the windchill is awful and mobility is nearly zero due to the wind strength.
Agreed ... 2 of these in a week is no longer interesting
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Been snowing in Penicuik for the last couple of hours but not lying even at 190m asl, I said earlier 400m asl would be the perfect heights for Blizzards and lying snow tonight!!! I thought the Met Office forecast of snow to low levels was a bit of cover just incase it did happen!!!
I hope youre right, what did you look at to get to the magic 400m?
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I've been recording the track of the storm since Saturday morning. The line shows where the lows were predicted to go by the models.
Saturday 00z run
Saturday 12z run
Sunday 00z run
Sunday 12z run
Monday 00z run
Monday 12z run
Today's,
Hope that helps
Wow perfect....
Interesting to see how much it moves between any two runs 12hrs apart.
Just goes to show how much it could still move although as we get closer the potential to move obviously decreases sequentially..
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Maybe a daft question but is there a site anywhere that shows how the predicted track of storms have moved over the piece?
Itd be interesting to see the 1st derivative of the varying models, see where they have predicted it to go and how that prediction has changed...
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sod it the pdf file seems to be too big, > 4mb to upload so I'll have to muck about with it.
k I hope WHEN I can eventually upload the pdf file you may understand a bit more of the immense complexity of this situation
Cant wait to read this but I probably wont understand it.
John, if you want to mail it to me I will put it on one of my websites for folks to grab if that makes life any easier..?
. pants
Atlantic Storms - January Part 2
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Thank goodness its calmed right down here and we only have 62mph gusts at drumalbin and 53 at prestwick. Its about time I had a quieter night.