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Posts posted by snowlover2009
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Yeah the JMA is probably the best run out of them all for wintryness.
I do find the 25th December charts interesting...I can all but hope.
which charts are you talking about?
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Makes me laugh in here, people telling people to calm down. what do you want us to do, turn are noses at the charts when they are absolutly superb and so much agreement even if the models are suggesting different places on where the really cold and snowy stuff will be in the uk, there is some of the strongest agreements i have ever seen on these charts for a potentially very cold and snowy spell. if we didnt discuss it, then we would have people moaning at us asking why we aint speaking about it, so we can not win. we are allowed to get excited and i will get exicted because that is the way i feel. it would take a lot now to go back to square one with the mild atlantic weather after all these exceptionally good runs. and i agree stop calling it f1 its bloody annoying.
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http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png just looked on weather outlook, they talk about the south being very very snowy, but surely much of england would have massive amounts of snow. in fi i know but how much snow and drifts would we get from this ?
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Sorry to ask a stupid question. But if this cold spell does happen, what kind of daytime temps are we looking at getting middle of next week?
any fog, could make temps not get above 2c. If you look at gfs for next week it has a lot of snow and temps around 1 to 5c widely. so maybe even a few ice days. but not too sure yet.
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It all depends on the setup, if you get a very cold strong unstable flow over the north sea then eastern and se areas would get plenty of snow showers, if for example you had the same upper cold as Paris this would be colder as an easterly there would not be modified by the sea but drier. If you go on to southerly tracking lows under the block it would depend on how far north these got, its really impossible to say accurately at this timeframe but as a rule any easterly/ne would normally favour the east and se. But continental europe would always be colder given the same depth of cold.
thanks for that.
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hmm try again
In these kind of setups what gfs is showing for example, would that result in france being very cold and colder than the UK and also have more snow, like would Paris get more snow than london.
Btw when do the ecm ens come out? thanks
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In these kind of setups what gfs is showing for example, would that result in france being very cold and colder than the UK and also have more snow, like would Paris get more snow than london.
Btw when do the ecm ens come out? thanks
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the GFS parallel will substitute the operational (I don't have the date though)
Oh im sure i heard it was sometime in the next weeks or so?
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how long has the paralell been running for? someone above said its the new upgraded gfs. Has it only just been created?
just had a look through the 18z ensembles for +240,not much agreement to say the least!
i don't think they are too bad tbh.
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lol only one run guys.. The gfs is a cold outliar and the JMA at 192 is pretty poor.
If the gfs/ukmo/ecmwf are showing similar by next wednesday, then I would be very excited
sorry but the overlall trend has been significantly improving JMA hasnt updated and ecm, ukmo are going the same way as gfs. gfs may be a codl outlier, but still the trend is there as it has been doing the same trend for ages.
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wow look at this !!!!!!!!!!!! would this bring more snow and deeper snow than february and would i have a good chance of seeing some good dumpings. it all kicks in around mid month my birthday!!!!!!
as i said would this chart bring snow to most of enlgand and wales.
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have you seen how different the gfs operational is compared to al the other ensembles in athens. way different!
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the interesting thing is the ridge what develops next friday before the easterly is only a week away, all we would need is the models to pick up on this more and there could be a great chance of something similar to gfs 18z tonight. ecm not far off from shwoing the ridge from the south
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and do you think there right?,
of coarse they may well be,
but id not bother hoping on anything past 7 days let alone 14 or 20 days.
something is very much kicking up the energy in the alantic,
and if we get pressure rise mid month even if its mild,
which i think we wont happen,
but if we do whats the good in that.
and the models have been showing for a longtime there is possible cold but nothing ever happens.
i think typical el nino atmosphere,
i dont take to much notice of the cfs chart because if they where that accurate met o would use them.
its in my opion that el nino years are mostly dominated by alantic driven weather,
add in extra stuff like the climate of the last 10 years = wet windy and mild with the odd arctic topler.
the met office recently have been pretty accurate with there medium term forecast,
so what ever model there using id think this is the best model to follow.
oh come on! how many times have we also seen mild periods in FI and actually come out as cold. it does happen you know. just because theres an el nino doesnt mean it will keep us mild. do you have crystal ball or something? because the way i see it, not one model have actually shown anything consistent, they are all over even the ukmo. ecm had a classic winter set up tonight, it has wet and zonal weather. what does this tell you!
im really desperate for you to explain to me why it looks like we won't get a white xmas! that is one crazy post, considering nothing is certain, far from it and its only the first day of bloody winter!!! whats unrelaistic is these silly posts, writing off the whole of the month over one bleeding run.
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people on here make me laugh so hard. one mild ecm and that means the next 2 weeks look likely to be mild and that means no white xmas. get a grip people, people on here tell the cold lovers not to get there hopes up on cold charts, why don't i just tell you people saying that it will be mild to actually not get your hopes up too, if the ecm is what you are looking for. oh my word!!!!
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correct me if i am wrong, i am still learning with these ensembles charts or whatever, but if the opertaion is a 'huge outlier', then why are number of the runs on this chart going for a good cold breakdown in fi.
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just out of interest, my birthday is on the 15th, would this chart bring snow to parts of the country?
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yeah most likely in the christmas pudding, been tragic really not seen a sub zero temp yet, still autumn I know but, got northerly wind now and my temp is 5.1°C, would have been less before 2000?
it is not a proper artic northerly. you do know that.
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bbc forecasting snow and 1c on friday! take a look your self!
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what was last years?
Cold Spell General Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
i can not see it being that mild if it is being forecasted. besides this should be in the cold spell discussion.