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asjmcguire

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Posts posted by asjmcguire

    The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

    Its plain to see on the ensembles, above average 850's all the way, yes they are misleading for early next week as it will feel pretty cool with HP but once those southerlies getting going it will be mild again, the runs are shocking for cold weather fans, november with the long nights in the top three longest nights of the year is a good month to see some cold just like May is warmth.

    I guess you mean december onwards, well way too far away to take seriously really.

    No I was referring to to the fact that in the Borders we are now looking at frost for the next 3 nights....

    Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Andrew Simon Jones

    There is a real world example of this -

    You will often hear people say "the GFS is over developing the low pressure"

    Frequently this means shortly before entering FI or once into FI the GFS starts reporting

    intense low pressure and very high winds.

    When / if this does arrive -

    the pressure will be at least 10mb higher and the wind will be around 25 - 30mph.

    post-10546-0-25597100-1320260680_thumb.p

    Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well, that's already wrong going by the models.

    But last year the models at this point were not showing any hint of cold either - it was literally an overnight thing when the models suddenly all started showing the cold coming in.

    It was explained by those more technical people who understand how the models work that the models are biased to mild winters as that's what statistically we are more likely to experience.

    If you remember last year when the cold kicked in - FI was always trying to show the quickest route out of the cold and back to mild. This went on for weeks before we did eventually get back to mild - but not the way the models wanted to do it - it wasn't -15'C one day and 15'C the next.

    Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul
    Removed protected material.

    I haven't seen the forecast, can you just clarify if there any specific figures given that define 'extreme cold'? Does it look like it is in relation to other years at the specific period given, the temperatures we've had in the last few weeks, or is it compared to Winter low temps as a whole in previous years ?

    I'm only trying to establish if there is a lower, specific figure where the forecast can be analysed or if it is open to interpretation and judged a success or failure depending on ones own criteria and the general term 'extreme cold' - also against what we've had recently, in past years at the time period given, or just generally Winters gone by?

    I'll leave this here for an hour....

    Yes, they did do a 'u-turn' a big one, was it last winter?? I remember that they had forecasted a warm winter until the last minute and then revised it.

    and then boasted in the news how they had accurately predicted where snow would fall and how much -

    despite getting it completely getting wrong

    and causing central scotland to shut down for a few days since they claimed much less snow would fall than actually did.......

    Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Andrew Simon Jones

    Just to add a bit of a controversial twist -

    While it may be a bit naughty - a small group of me and some weather friends actually pooled our money together and purchased 6 months worth of 30 day forecasts. Specifically because we want to see if there really is anything to his system.

    Because I am the type of person I am - I am maintaining a spreadsheet where we each rate every day between 0.0 and 1.0 based on actual vs forecast. (EDIT: Got to love Dropbox :good: )

    October achieved an overall rating of 60%

    The forecasts were generally more accurate south of the Midlands than they were North of the Midlands.

    However - the various storms in October were pretty accurate forecasts except the latter one which caused flooding somewhere (I think it was Wales but to be honest I was not paying attention) because it originally was forecast for the North of Scotland but was updated a few weeks before to move it further south.

    BUT - I am happy enough that he at least issued an updated apologising he was wrong.

    Be assured I will be rating throughout the winter.

    The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Without wishing to be labelled a ramper.

    I got Piers Corbyn Novmber forecast today

    If he is right he will surprise a lot of religious model watchers in about 11 days time - as the models are showing no hints of cold.

    But don't forget exactly the same happened last year - in fact when I showed some of the local people here for November forecast they said - so pretty much a repeat of last November then?

    I know though - it is Piers - I know he has a bit of a reputation - but my heart and gut tell me things are changing....

    Indeed one of my amateur meteorologist friends has points out to me that while the op is staying mild more and more ensemble members are trending to cold.

    On Monday our low was: 10.9'c

    Tuesday: 2.5'c

    It is currently frosty outside.

    I guess we will see.

    Call To Rampers - White Ops

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Andrew Simon Jones

    This looks like the place to be for me for a while.

    I'm depressed with America getting all the snow and the GFS showing nothing but warm for us.

    I live in hope that last year the GFS did much the same and then suddenly changed overnight and started showing winter......

    PS - Am still waiting for a November forecast from the lovely controversial Piers ;)

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I am basing this on no forecasting data whatsoever -

    but I thought I would mention that BBC Scotland tonight ran a news story about the Scottish Government being concerned that 68% of people in Scotland say they are not prepared for winter - and Edinburgh Airport has invested in several extra snow blowers so they can clear the runway quicker in the event of more severe snow.

    Now - I am not convinced that Edinburgh Airport would have invested in more snow blowers if they were not expecting at least some heavy snow.

    There may be nothing in it at all - but I just thought I would mention it......

    Winter 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Can you explain the charts ? Are they actual Dams each day or some form of 'predicted v actual'

    Neither - they are simply the forecast.

    It is up to whoever is using them to see if they pan out.

    Basically everyday I load the CFS from Netweather and for every day that the forecast dam over SE Scotland is 528 or lower I increment the value recorded in the spreadsheet by1 for that day. I have multiple columns for 528, 522, 516 etc etc

    In this way - the charts begin to show trends as more and more runs are recorded - the CFS has been fairly consistent over the last 30 (days) runs that there will be a 2 week period towards the end of Jan, beginning of Feb where there will be at least 528dam over the UK and in many cases - much lower values down to 516 - I would class that as a trend - there are a few runs with 510dam but they aren't appearing often so I wouldn't get excited about them yet.

    Winter 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Andrew Simon Jones

    That's really useful Andy, thanks for sharing that! I take it by "Uk" you mean it could just be that the 528 dam hits northern Scotland?

    Yeah - it's very IMBY - if the 528 or lower appears over the Eastern Scottish Borders I add 1 to the current value of the cell

    In general going by the CFS the WHOLE of the UK being covered by the 528 or lower is about 1/3 less than indicated on the chart.

    (Though in the noted 2 week Jan/Feb period - that does indeed cover the whole of the UK)

    EDIT: There are now links to the raw CSV files on the page if you want to play with the data yourself :)

    Winter 2011/2012

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Andrew Simon Jones

    I have been quite interested in how useful the CFS model really is - so I have been running a spreadsheet that I use to record when the dam lines are over the UK. I thought it would make it easier to pick out trends. I will be interested over the winter to see if any of it's predictions pay off.

    The only consistent thing the CFS is saying is a 2 week period around end of Jan, beginning of Feb with the 528dam over us, but some runs also feature the 522 down to the 510dam.

    I have been maintaining the page here:

    http://www.borderswe...wxdamcharts.php - please feel free to use or not as you please smile.png

    Personal Weather Station - Climate Graphs

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Hi,

    For those who have a Personal Weather Station - we have started collecting data from people to contribute to a national climate graph.

    Would you like to join in?

    So far we have the following stations: http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/climate/

    Joining in is very easy.

    Create 3 text files and call them max.txt min.txt and average.txt and put your min max and average temperatures in the files.

    see example here:

    http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/climate/climate/bordersweather/minyeardata.txt

    http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/climate/climate/bordersweather/maxyeardata.txt

    http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/climate/climate/bordersweather/yeardata.txt

    You can find the script to create the graphs here: http://www.bordersweather.co.uk/climate/climate.zip

    If setting up the graph is beyond you - I will happily host the graph for you at bordersweather (I'll be hosting an additional graph anyway even if you do generate it yourself)

    Please feel free to contact me if you have any issues.

    Scandanaviagate?

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Thanks for that- so unless there are holes in the temperature datasets for Scandinavia presented on that site, it looks like the IPCC's "best guess" estimates (note the uncertainty bounds) for Scandinavia's temperatures in the 1930s/1940s was wrong. If so, I don't think it's another fiasco like "Climategate" or the Himalayas exaggeration, but an example of them making a misjudgement for whatever reasons.

    Thanks for your thoughts :clap:

    Scandanaviagate?

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by Andrew Simon Jones

    The graph shown on the site appears to be a cropped version of fig 9-12 from the Fourth Assessment Report -

    This is the graph:

    http://www.ipcc.ch/g...pg/fig-9-12.jpg

    fig-9-12.jpg

    EDIT: Whilst I am quite happy to post these articles - it does not mean I necessarily believe them.

    This is the Climate Change section of the forum, and these articles purport to be about that topic - so I am reposting them simply for members to debate them.

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