coram

After a settled end to the weekend, it seems increasingly likely, according to the GFS 00z, that the trough will set up just to the west of the UK. This will mean warmish winds from the south/south west. After that we're into the final third of the month and as Stu says this could be very warm. My guess for the final figure is 16.7.

I don't value your opinion. You've just been lucky. You should never mix up lucky guesses with an ability to forecast. It's looking likely, according to the GFS and ECM, that there will be a small rise over the next 5-6 days. Thereafter it seems likely that the surface high will move over us giving warm/very warm weather in the south at least. Less warm/settled the further north and west you go. A finishing figure of about 16.7 is my guess.

No, I think that 17.3 might be on the money. The question is, will there be an adjustment? It seems that during months when there have been mild/warm nights, it is less likely that there will be the usual downward adjustment. It could even tick upwards.

16.7 please

Stu, Do you think that if there is an adjustment at the end of the month, that it will be upwards or downwards? It seems to me that when there are cold nights that the adjustment is downwards, and therefore, because there have only been warm nights this month, the adjustment would be more likely to be upwards. What do you think?

17.4 please.

I think that's true of the countryside, but because of the pollution in northern cities it is in fact pretty much pitch black between 11pm and 4am. This is a huge relief to the legions of chimney sweeps in the north, who otherwise would have to work all night.

15.2 please.

10.6 please

Remember Wales that anything other than an A* or an A at GCSE is the equivalent to a fail at 'O' Level and that according to a study from Durham University there has been grade inflation of 1 grade per decade in 'A'Levels over the last two decades. This renders your 100% and 90% success rates meaningless. The government has sold you and your parents a lie in terms of what constitutes 'good' exam results. Don't even think about going to university unless you get on to a good course at a 'Russell Group' university and are confident of a 2.1 or above. If your degree doesn't match up to these standards, in terms of a proper graduate job, you have no hope. You may just end up with a huge debt and the same job as you would have had if you had left school at sixteen. It seems to me, that if you want to make sure that you get a good degree go on fewer holidays/trips and work much harder. Anyway, it is a beautiful sunny day here in the south-east.

7.8 please

In terms of consistently cold weather this has most definately been an historic winter, perhaps the most historic of all. Even the winters of 62/63, 46/47 and 78/79 were not as consistently cold for as long. It is remarkable the number of 'normal' people (i.e. those not afflicted by weather OCD) who are commenting on the fact that the cold weather started in November and shows no sign of ending. They are factually wrong in so much as, at least in England and Wales, the cold weather did not start until 11th December and is now showing signs of relenting, however they are correct in that there has been virtually no mild weather for months. If the measure of an historic winter is the number of bouts of very severe weather, then I think that this winter has fallen just short in England and Wales. Different areas of the country have had severe cold and/or heavy snow at different times, but, at least in the south, I feel we were just one episode short of historic. If the heavy snow and very cold temperatures of the pre Christmas and post New Year periods had been replicated in February, then I think we would have qualified. It is a different story of course in Scotland. Their winter was a whisker away from being the coldest since 1914, with only 62/63 being colder by 0.08C. Similarly, Northern Ireland had their coldest winter since 62/63. Scotland's winter qualifies as historic on all counts - severe cold, heavy snow, lying snow and the consistency of the cold. As an aside, I was very surprised to see that the coldest winter of all in England and Wales (62/63) was quite significantly colder than the coldest in Scotland. This winter has been historic in another sense. Many people, me included, believed that we would never again have a significantly cold winter. It just seemed that, although the rise in temperature over the last couple of decades has been relatively small, it meant that the chance of a really cold winter had gone. This winter is historic in that it proves beyond doubt that we can have very cold winters and that we will have them in the future.

4.7

4.7

Still one small patch of snow left over from the drifts that were created during the very heavy snowfall of early January here in The Surrey/Hampshire borders.

2.2 please

There is still some lying snow in the hills of north Hampshire/west Surrey.. This is mostly at elevations of more than 500ft and only either in the corners of fields or in very sheltered spots. There are also some drifts of up to 3ft in very exposed places.

Same here in Odiham (N.Hants-280ft). At 9.30am there was a light covering of wet snow. Interestingly, on the drive to work the temperature rose from 0C to 1.5C - this is a 12 mile journey ESE to the Surrey borders. Other than some snow at 600ft, there is no snow just a few miles away. This just shows how marginal the event is. Whether there is snow further east than Hants will depend on how heavy the PPN is and whether you are at 500ft or more. So far it seems to me that the MetO/BBC have got this very difficult forecast just about spot on.

About 75% snow coverage in my back garden (North Hampshire) at 9am this morning. There looks like there will be some left tomorrow morning but almost certainly not 50%. There has been some snow on the ground since 2nd January which makes this a very impressive spell (17 days). In total there has been snow on the ground on 28 days so far this winter.

Similar here in north Hants. Had an extra 7.5cm (3") up until 8.15 this morning. It's still snowing now, so I expect the final amount from this episode will be about 9cm. In total this January we have had about 37cm (15"). Incredible that we have about 10" of snow still lying in many places. The BBC are already saying that after a milder interlude it will get much colder again next week. They were more or less spot on with this latest snowfall, so I'm hoping that they will be right again.

Enjoy the snow; it looks like you'll get plenty of it. Walk to your exam tomorrow.

0.1 in Odiham. The band of precipitation is still making good progress, but the front portion of it is weakening significantly as it approaches the IoW. South-west Hampshire will get the precipitation at about 7pm and north-east Hampshire by about midnight. It is looking as if the precipitation will be pretty light which means that it will be rain/sleet near the coast and snow inland. Accumulations are likely to less than 2" (5cm) except on the highest hills.

The band of PPN does seem to be a little further east than predicted for this time, and the fact that there have been reports of snow further west and at lower levels than expected is encouraging for Dorset and Hants. I would imagine that away from the coasts in Dorset and Hampshire snow totals will at least match the MetO warnings of 2-5cms. The temperature in north Hants maxed at 0.6C late this morning (it had fallen to 0.2C by 2pm), so I don't think that in the north of the county there will be anything other than snow unless the band weakens much more than is expected.

If you look at the PPN band on the MetO radar, it looks to me as though it is already weakening. However, it stilll has some impressive strength and I think it is further advanced than expected. This is a good sign and I would say that it will be touching the IoW at about 7pm at this rate. This means it is more likely to make it to the western fringes of London with more than just a few flakes in the wind.

Maybe I have missed your posts, but it is very good to see that you are posting again. Although I am a relatively new member, I have been following your input with great interest for a few years. It does look likely that the 3C mark will be challenged this month. In fact, it is possible that we could have a sub zero month. This would blow out of the water your theory that a sub 3C month can no longer be achieved. It always seemed probable to me that we would have the right synoptics for long enough to comfortably breach the 3C level. Having said that it has not happened yet. December was 3.1C (so close, but not close enough) and although it is already looking good for January, we are only 6 days into the month. I am sure that if we can get a significantly cold month you will be as happy as the rest of the cold lovers on this site. Anyway, as I said, I am personally very pleased to see that your contributing again and hope to see some predictions from you over the coming days.