claret047

Well I sincerely hope that the snow does not stick to you, as we all want to share in the fun. Seriously though as with all features to the south of us we tend not to know the exact timing and track of such systems until much nearer the time and eve4n then if it arrives after dark it is a case of lamp post watching to see what happens. All very much last minute "will it, wont it?"

Just a quick note from me to thank posters on here in making this a most interesting thread during the winter months. It is the thread I look for at this time of year when I access the website. Especial thanks to MIA for his extensive input on this interesting subject, All the best to you and your family. Merry Christmas to everyone and let us hope for a more prosperous new year. Kind Regards Dave

I didn't know dogs were particularly interested in the GFS. Seriously though the latest charts are less inspiring but we can at least hope for something better in the next round of trauma the 06Z.

Tell that to folk in Northern Scotland and parts of the southeast and other favoured spots.!

Many thanks for your reply. I will read the link you have so kindly provided.

Can someone explain to me how the actual charts are arrived at. Is the data collected for each run used on to coin a better phrase "a blank canvas" or is it inputted into the previous run and the results spewed out therefrom. On the other hand is the data from say today's 12Z inputted into yesterday's 12Z for todays 12Z model. Alternatively is it a combination of 2 of these with perhaps some human input thrown in for good measure. Sorry for the ramble, but I would be intrigued to know.

As I posted on another thread a few weeks back, I have gladioli in bloom and following RHS advice I set broad been seeds late October and they are about a foot tall with blooms on. Goodness knows what will happen to these plants, once the forecast cold sets in.

Mark, I trust you and your family are well. What are you doing posting GFS charts? BTW when does the mighty Navgem come out? Lind Regards Dave

Further to my post yesterday about my allotment, weird things are also happening in our garden. Not only our flowers continue to bloom, but a lovrely white gladiola is just starting to flower, having failed to do so all summer.

I don't know if it can be attributable to climate change but when I visited my allotment today after an absence of about a week and noticed the following: 1) My raspberries are still heavily cropping and I picked loads of them with a lot more still to ripen 2) I set a couple of rows of broad beans in late September/early October, and I notice that they now have blossoms on several of them. A couple are also infested with blackfly. I set them in Autumn rather than spring as I had read somewhere blackfly would not be a problem with an autumn sowing, I don't know what will happen with the beans as there is the question of pollination at this time of the year. Is anyone else experiencing ther same issue? Kind Regards Dave

Many of the local roads have minor flooding on them and the rain relentlessly continues to fall. No work on the allotment for me today unless I wish to set rice.

Hello Dave (MIA) Thanks for the update. Whilst enjoying your chicken and prawns were you by any chance watching the BBC Evening news? It has just shown an item on global warming and featured film form Svalbard with bears on rocks instead of ice floes. Is that area as dire as the feature claims or is it sensationalism? Reading you regular updates it would appear the ice gain and snow cover is generally going well this year and you predict it is going to get a whole lot better next week with more favourable conditions prevailing. Kind Regards Dave

It is good to see this thread up and running again. As MIA posted on the first page the loss of ice ceases about the middle of September. I like to think it is around my birthday, which was yesterday and believe it is also Mrs MIA's birthday too. Many Happy Returns to her David if that is the case. This is one of my favourite threads on Netweather and many thanks to all who posts their views and observations on here, Being totally unscientific I feel we will have a very average winter this year, perhaps a tad colder with one or two snowy outbreaks, but very little of anything down south as any cold spells will be from the North/Northwest rather than off the continent mainland or Scandinavia.

Good morning Moogyboobles. You were very unlucky. Here in North Springfield we have had an absolute deluge and frequent lightning. It has now stopped at least for a while.

No real rain in sight for the foreseeable. The further outlook looks a bit concerning with maximum temperatures forecast to hit 43C in some spots. We certainly need a good rain. The other day I was sitting on Writtle Green under a tree waiting for my wife to return from a shop and it was just like autumn with loads of leaves falling onto and around me. I also noticed the other day that some large trees have leaves browning already. Is this unusual? Kind Regards Dave

Here in mid Essex a total disappointment. Just light to moderate rain overnight. Hopefully we will see something this evening.

We had a storm yesterday evening just after 8 O'clock with quite a bit of lightning and torrential rain. A very heavy shower has just passed through but was not electric. The sun is now shining brightly although it is still raining. Perhaps we will be lucky with another storm later this evening.

Thanks MIA. I look forward to the next refreeze and your very interesting and informative posts on the subject later this year. In the meantime stay well and enjoy the spring/ summer weather. Kind Regards Dave

Very windy here still in mid Essex. last evening's squall line was very powerful as it passed over us. At one point I feared we would lose power as our lights were going on and off as well as losing satellite pictures. I simply don't get all the angst against the southeast. We had it really bad on Friday, with one property in Brentwood severely damaged by a fallen tree, (shown on TV yesterday) and a lot of damage elsewhere. As far as media coverage is concerned, it was the main point of the news on BBC Breakfast News this morning, showing flooding in areas outside the southeast. Seek and ye shall find. I find it sad to see such postings that do not reflect reality, but an ingrained perception. Kind Regards Dave

I didn't realise the M4 was that badly flooded, although we have had a lot of rain.

Is not Writtle College closer for you? My guess for Writtle 76 mph

I very much doubt anyone will be sitting on the fence on Friday, they would be blown off it!

Yes they were all tragedies and I am not attempting to play them down in any way, but could it be with the 1987 it happened at night and the death toll would have been so much higher if it had been higher if it had peaked during daylight hours. We suffered an enormous amount of damage in Essex. At the time I worked for Essex County Council in the Property Services Department and I had to produce a report to committee the cost of repairs to schools, elderly persons homes and other county council owned establishments. The total cost if memory serves me right was over £100m. With winds of that ferocity being a rarity buildings had not been designed to face such a force and 3 schools lost their roofs. Would have as much damage been sustained in areas more accustomed to such extremes and the buildings designed to withstand such wind strength?

I wasn't sure whether to post the following here or on the model thread. Being a novice the current rather boring weather with no WAA going up into the arctic around a Greenland High, should we be grateful looking at the wider picture that the set up we have been enjoying of mostly benign weather has helped the arctic to have one of the best build ups of ice looking back over several years and if this pattern continues could help to an extent nullify the impact of climate change . Also, does anyone know how things are looking as far as the Antarctic is concerned with summer melt. Are things as good down there as far as climate change is concerned? Is it still having a considerable impact?. Kind Regards Dave