[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

6z ICON

Tuesday

Thursday

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-29

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, John88B said:

Knife edge stuff for us in Yate Zephyr. Still time for change,  for better or worse!

Indeed will be a nowcast for sure, my eyes will be on the radar tomorrow  I'm hoping more of the southwest comes in to play as the runs come out today

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

EURO4 00z

  

00z WRF-NMM 2km (+36)

ICON

ARPEGE

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

18z EURO4, would like to see next frame lol

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Heavy snow at Midnight Tuesday into Wednesday 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

You can see how tricky this is going to be by just looking at the frontal structure on this morning's fax. One suspects a fair chance of snow behind the cold front but this is essentially a nowcast I feel.

Indeed a very complex set up really, not the "classic" channel low's we see every now and again. Not long until EURO4 starts coming into range.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

ICON north of M4? 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

FAX's have the low pretty far south, what a mess they are wouldn't like to be a forecaster at the moment.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Let's hope they don't leave it until Monday night and then people panic buy.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

Reality check needed because I'm buzzing atm. Still a volatile situation at such a close time frame.
 

I am buzzing about it also lol hanging on to every model run at the moment begging EURO4 to come in to range, I need to take a step back really as most of the time it ends in disappointment I wouldn't care if we had seen a bit of snow already but because I haven't seen any at all it's a pretty exciting time.  

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

This morning's ICON

Well that escalated quickly 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I think this will go the way of the pear for us sadly.

Nothing is going our way this winter.

Most likely  it's been a very poor winter here not even seen any sleet, I still have hope to see something that won't go until we see 20c or so 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

12z ICON

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Got down to 6.3c last night now up to 7.6c a much milder morning. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

No frost here overnight got to around 0.8c now up to 2.8c, bbq winter in these parts so far

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Nothing here overnight woke up at about 4:30 am and was a frost but even that was gone by 6 am, the moon was out though just a few days to late, as always. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

I hope some of that ppn can make it over the Welsh mountains, don't hold much hope though and even if it does I will most likely be in the gap

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Am I right in thinking precip takes a more northerly direction this evening? 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Looks stormy here